Week 11 Top 25

I know everyone is using the word "chaos" to describe the season, and for sure we have seen some weird stuff. Still, I find it less chaotic given that my expectations are tempered by my rankings. 

 

It's OK though, plenty of exciting football this weekend!

 

#76 Navy 6

#1 Notre Dame 34

"Danger, Will Robinson!" As I've said many times, service academies are scary for "normal" teams. We'll see if the Irish learned anything from Cincinnati.

The Irish certainly looked better than Cincinnati did vs the Middies.

#105 Missouri 6

#2 Georgia 43

I do not understand Kirby Smart. Probably never will. He's got to know that Daniels has the same potential as Fields and Lawrence, but he keeps #2 as the starter. I get that Daniels has been fragile, but he's a guy you went after to transfer to you.

 

#103 Indiana 7

#3 Michigan 29

I don't expect to see much here. And I figure UM is pretty fired up after letting one get away last week.

 

OK, I really expected a blowout. Looks like the UM defense showed up at least.

#4 Ohio State 26

#88 Nebraska 17

I hope Frost doesn't get fired after this. Martinez has been playing better, and you know they'll be up for this one. I wonder which OSU offense will show up?

 

Frost is on the verge of something pretty darn good, maybe. OSU looked terrible again. I am firmly in the Kyle McCord camp at this point, because every time Stroud has been put under pressure, he plays poorly.

 

FCS Idaho State 14

#5 BYU 59

Who cares? It should be illegal to play FCS schools.

 

#51 LSU 14

#6 Alabama 20

Well, we almost had ourselves a 2-loss Tide late in the season. As bad as OSU looked, Bama actually looked worse.

#7 Michigan State 29

#20 Purdue 40

Danger game here. I'm still not impressed with MSU but they did a good job against UM. Which Purdue do we get? The crazy upset machine, or the doormat of the B1G?

 

I guess we know which Boilermaker team showed up, eh? Nailed. It. MSU will need to win out to get back into the good graces of the CFI committee. And letting O'Connell throw for 536 (FIVE HUNDRED THIRTY SIX!) yards against you is not a good look.

 

#112 Tulsa 20

#8 Cincinnati 28

Fickell better run it up, or the committee will keep pushing them down.

I feel that the Manbearpigs are like Iowa State, playing up or down to their competition. This certainly didn't help their playoff chances.

 

#9 Oklahoma State 24

#43 West Virginia 3

Could be another danger game, and WVa has the tools to score a lot of points.

OK, maybe not so much on the "lots of points" thing.

 

#10 Wisconsin 52

#55 Rutgers 3

Schiano has been doing a great job making Rutgers at least competitive compared to previous seasons in the B1G. Still, I expect the Wisky D to do their thing.

Wow! 52 points from the rimbling bumbling stumbling Badgers? Too many people sleeping on these guys.

 

#11 Baylor 28

#73 TCU 30

I wonder where Patterson will end up. The guy single-handedly made TCU relevant in DI football.

This was the surprise of the weekend for me. I figured with Patterson gone the Frogmen would be distracted and that Baylor would make them pay. I guess they got fired up.

 

#13 Wake Forest 55

#30 North Carolina 58

My upset pick of the week. 

 

Nailed. It. Again.

 

#14 Iowa 17

#91 Northwestern 12

Gawd I really want Fitzy to have a good game with his guys, but I just don't see Iowa giving him that option.

Northwestern tried to make it interesting, and Iowa helped out by changing QBs late in the season.

 

#15 Oregon 26

#101 Washington 16

I really want this to be a danger game for Oregon, and you know that UW really hates the Ducks. I don't think it will matter, but Washington at home could be a problem if they weren't just awful this season.

UW played better than I'd have thought, and Oregon did just enough to get out of Seattle alive. Yet another "top" team with an unimpressive effort.

 

#16 Penn State 31

#49 Maryland 14

Lil Tag isn't really getting it done, but I'll try to watch because I really like the MD uniforms. Should be fun seeing how Franklin gets PSU to bounce back.

Only got to see a little, took my son to watch Eternals. Fun but I think I need to watch again. The movie, that is. PSU took care of business even though they gave up a lot of yards.

 

#17 Auburn 3

#33 Texas A&M 20

Again, which Bo Nix do we get? Can Auburn keep the momentum going? Will A&M show some flashes of the team we saw last season?

Not really surprising, but I expected more than one touchdown given these guys' offensive abilities. Weird.

 

#59 Illinois 14

#18 Minnesota 6

I doubt that the Gophs will have any problems here.

 

This is why I should just shut up maybe. What the heck, Gophers?

 

#19 Boise State 40

#27 Fresno State 14

Go Broncos! Sorry.

Boy, did they go! Broncos still have a chance at the conference championship but need some help.

 

#21 Utah 52

#56 Stanford 7

 

Ouch. Just ouch. Can you believe Stanford is paying David Shaw nearly $9 MILLION dollars to be this bad?

#75 Liberty 14

#22 Ole Miss 27

 

Not really an awful showing by Liberty, all things considered

 

#23 Air Force 21

#67 Army 14 OT

 

Go Army! Beat Navy! After beating AF in OT.

 

#25 SDSU 17

#82 Hawaii 10

If you have to hit an away spot, This. Is. It. I don't expect the Rainbow Warriors to challenge here.

 

Enjoying Hawaií and winning a football game.That's a good weekend in anybody's book.

 

I think Texas @ Iowa State could be a fun one. 2 teams both needing a win to make the season something to build on.

 

Seriously, what is up with Texas and the second half? They are just awful after halftime.

 

Top 25

Gotta say that I am surprised at the magnitude of these moves this late in the season. Makes me think that we are much closer to parity than it may seem if we only look at the Invitational committee and continue to give undeserved credence to the AP.

And yes, I know some of you will lose your minds over 3-loss teams even being considered. If that's you, and you haven't bothered to try to understand my system, just shut up. Don't spread your ignorance any further than that empty space between your ears.

Rank (prev Rank) Team Record (total score)

25 (prev 40) Arkansas 6-3 (0.6275) A win over 5-4 Miss St brings the Piggies back into my top 25

24 (prev 17) Auburn 6-3 (0.6339) Bad loss drops Bo Nix and company 7 spots this week.

23 (prev 21) Utah 6-3 (0.6619) Stomped a really bad Stanford, no real points to help the Utes

22 (prev 19) Boise State 5-4 (0.6763) Big win unfortunately against a not very good Fresno

21 (prev 22) Ole Miss 7-2 (0.6841) Lane Kiffin has the guys winning, but they need better competition to fill that glass faster.

20 (prev 18) Minnesota 6-3 (0.6869) Only dropped 2 places after losing to Illinois.

19 (prev 30) North Carolina 5-4 (0.6941) Beating an 8-0 teams nets you some pretty good points, regardless of how light that 8-0 schedule was.

18 (prev 13) Wake Forest 8-1 (0.7145) Wake's schedule wasn't completely awful, but without NC it's not great. Gotta win the games you're supposed to win.

17 (prev 15) Oregon 8-1 (0.7354) Beating UW is almost the same as a loss (zero points awarded). Ask Cincinnati.

16 (prev 11) Baylor 7-2 (0.7673) TCU broke Baylor's back this season. Not sure they can climb out of that hole.

15 (prev 12) Oklahoma 9-0 (0.8162) Did not play

14 (prev 8) Cincinnati 9-0 (0.8170) Kinda weird having back to back 9-0 teams down here, but this is what we get. The Manbearpigs beat an awful Tulsa and got almost zero points for it.

13 (prev 7) Michigan State 8-1 (0.8183) Purdue is just plain dangerous against highly ranked teams. No clue why.

12 (prev 33) Texas A&M 7-2 (0.8257) Beating 6-win Auburn vaults the Aggies up the list a bunch.

11 (prev 5) BYU 8-2 (0.8423) Play an FCS school, take a loss for cheating.

10 (prev 14) Iowa 7-2 (0.8461) There are a lot of B1G teams up here. I am surprised, truly.

9 (prev 16) Penn State 6-3 (0.8520) Not really sure why beating 5-win Maryland nets you a 7 spot jump, but the math bears it out.

8 (prev 20) Purdue 6-3 (0.8620) Obviously beating 8-0 MSU gets you some serious points

7 (prev 4) Ohio State 8-1 (0.9392) Beating a 3-7 team is similar to taking a loss. I really like what my adjusted victory points are doing this season.

6 (prev 3) Michigan 8-1 (0.9451) Another workmanlike win for the Wolverines, but against a really bad team.

5 (prev 9) Oklahoma State 8-1 (0.9481) Beating WVU who beat Iowa St netted enough points to move up while teams ahead of them played bad teams and moved down.

4 (prev 6) Alabama (0.9898) Similar to OkSt, beating a mediocre team is better than beating a bad team.

3 (prev 2) Georgia (1.0165) Look, for my money UGA is the best team in the country by a mile. That said, you have to play better teams for the algorithm to award you more points. Sorry.

2 (prev 10) Wisconsin (1.0612) Like I said, surprised by the magnitude of the moves. Maryland is 5-4 with a decent SoS so the math works. Still, it's a shock.

1 (prev 1) Notre Dame (1.2424) Best win of the season but against a truly awful Navy. It's just as surprising to see the Irish holding on.

I think we're all familiar with the methodology at this point. How about some playoff goodness?

Ray's Final Four

Not too shabby, though I expect we'd see a UGA-Bama final. Again. 4 teams is just not enough for a real sport. We. Need. More.

Ray's Elite Eight

Looks like the B1G football tournament. Such an odd year all the way around. How about a real playoff?

Ray's Sweet Sixteen

I was going to move the teams around to avoid in-conference round 1 games, but there are simply too many B1G teams to make that work. Still, there are a few tasty matchups like OU at Wisky in December!

So, I know it looks like a Big 10 love fest, but that's just what the algorithm spit out. It'll sort itself out over the next 3 weeks, no doubt.

You can go here to see the full Top 25 rankings numbers.

Week 11 Preview

Well folks, another weekend is upon us. You all know I don't buy into the AP of CFI polls, so I don't have much in the way of compelling games except those that appeal to fans of specific teams. But here are my top 25 games and thoughts on each.

76 Navy @ 1 Notre Dame - "Danger, Will Robinson!" As I've said many times, service academies are scary for "normal" teams. We'll see if the Irish learned anything from Cincinnati.

105 Missouri @ 2 Georgia - Is JT healthy? Is Smart being an idiot? Seriously, even the UGA faithful are worried about another Fields-Fromm situation.

103 Indiana @ 3 Michigan - I don't expect to see much here. And I figure UM is pretty fired up after letting one get away last week.

4 Ohio State @ 88 Nebraska - I hope Frost doesn't get fired after this. Martinez has been playing better, and you know they'll be up for this one. I wonder which OSU offense will show up?

Idaho State @ 5 BYU - an FCS school? Auditioning for the SEC?

51 LSU @ 6 Alabama - I like coach O, but this will be ugly, early.

7 Michigan State @ 20 Purdue - Danger game here. I'm still not impressed with MSU but they did a good job against UM. Which Purdue do we get? The crazy upset machine, or the doormat of the B1G?

112 Tulsa @ 8 Cincinnati - Fickell better run it up, or the committee will keep pushing them down.

9 Oklahoma State @ 43 West Virginia - Could be another danger game, and WVa has the tools to score a lot of points.

10 Wisconsin @ 55 Rutgers - Schiano has been doing a great job making Rutgers at least competitive compared to previous seasons in the B1G. Still, I expect the Wisky D to do their thing.

11 Baylor @ 73 TCU - I wonder where Patterson will end up. The guy single-handedly made TCU relevant in DI football.

13 Wake Forest @ 30 North Carolina - My upset pick of the week. I guarantee Howell will be fired up, as this is a great opportunity to salvage their season. I don't really know much about Wake, haven't even seen them play. Are they for real?

14 Iowa @ 91 Northwestern - Gawd I really want Fitzy to have a good game with his guys, but I just don't see Iowa giving him that option.

15 Oregon @ 101 Washington - I really want this to be a danger game for Oregon, and you know that UW really hates the Ducks. I don't think it will matter, but Washington at home could be a problem if they weren't just awful this season.

16 Penn State @ 49 Maryland - Lil Tag isn't really getting it done, but I'll try to watch because I really like the MD uniforms. Should be fun seeing how Franklin gets PSU to bounce back.

17 Auburn @ 33 Texas A&M - Again, which Bo Nix do we get? Can Auburn keep the momentum going? Will A&M show some flashes of the team we saw last season?

59 Illinois @ 18 Minnesota - I doubt that the Gophs will have any problems here.

19 Boise State @ 27 Fresno State - Go Broncos! Sorry.

21 Utah @ 56 Stanford - If Stanford loses again, what does this say about Oregon? You know exactly what it says, don't you?

75 Liberty @ 22 Ole Miss - Remember what Liberty pulled off last season? That was fun. Good times, eh?

23 Air Force @ 67 Army - CiC trophy at stake. The Falcons are playing good football, and apparently my Cadets can score a ton of points when properly motivated.

25 SDSU @ 82 Hawaii - If you have to hit an away spot, This. Is. It. I don't expect the Rainbow Warriors to challenge here.

I think Texas @ Iowa State could be a fun one. 2 teams both needing a win to make the season something to build on.

Anyway, keep an eye open for upsets and have a great weekend!

I'm Pretty Sure They're High

 Of course, I'm talking about the CFB Invitational Committee. 

I was going to use this post to do my comparison between the AP, CFI, and Massey's, but truly this first list appears to be the most ridiculous they've ever come up with. I say "appears" because all is not as it seems, and I am going to break down the "why."

Here are the CFI top 6, just for reference:

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Michigan State
4. Oregon
5. Ohio State
6. Cincinnati
   

Georgia:

• 8-0 with wins over Auburn, Kentucky, and a Florida heading in the wrong direction.
  
• 2nd in 1st level points; 4th in 2nd level points; 12th in 3rd level points 
• Opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 37-20 (.649) 
• Opponent's opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 240-164 (.594) 
• SoS (BCS style) .631 good for 18th best

Easy case to make for UGA being top 4. We haven't seen a defense this good since maybe ever. And while their offense hasn't set the world on fire, it hasn't had to.

Alabama:

• 7-1 with a loss to #33 Texas A&M (6-2)
• 8th in 1st level points; 9th in 2nd level points; 13th in 3rd level points 
• Opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 29-19 (.604) 
• Opponent's opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 225-139 (.604) 
• SoS (BCS style) .609 good for 29th best
  

Honestly, this is not terrible for Alabama. From my previous research, their SoS is usually much worse, as is their OW%. If I go back to an older version of my system and take the average ranks of 1st, 2nd, 3rd level points, and SRS, Bama stays 6th. This works well enough, as they've done the job. Problem is there are teams that should be ahead of them.

Michigan State:

• 8-0 with a win over #3 UM (7-1)
  
• 6th in 1st level points; 7th in 2nd level points; 8th in 3rd level points 
• Opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 27-22 (.551) 
• Opponent's opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 236-122 (.659) 
• SoS (BCS style) .587 good for 42nd best
  

The win over the Wolverines is what really makes the difference here. UM has a lot of 1st level points, and that really moved the Spartans up. Again, if I use the average ranked position MSU moves from 7 to 5. Not as large a shocker to see them at 3 for the CFI.Still, there are more deserving teams.

Oregon:

• 7-1 with a loss to #56 Stanford (3-5)
  
• 15th in 1st level points; 13th in 2nd level points; 16th in 3rd level points 
• Opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 26-24 (.520) 
• Opponent's opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 212-173 (.551) 
• SoS (BCS style) .530 good for 87th best 

And here's the real problem. Oregon is riding the OSU win for all its worth and then some. If they hadn't lost to a terrible Stanford, they're in the same boat as MSU and the discussion is much more civil. But they did lose, and here's what happens if you take away the OSU win (all I did was give them a win over 4-4 SJSU instead of 7-1 OSU):

•  28th in 1st level points; 31st in 2nd level points; 42nd in 3rd level points 
• Opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 24-28 (.462) 
• Opponent's opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 209-183 (.533) 
• SoS (BCS style) .485 good for 113th best

Now it's true that something similar happens to MSU if I do the same, but MSU is undefeated. I usually vomit all over folks who try to use that fact as the sole measuring stick, but here the added points would matter a great deal.

 

Ohio State and Cincinnati both have better numbers than Oregon, as do many other teams.

 

What am I Saying? 

I'm saying that 3 of the top 4 are somewhat reasonable given that the Central Committee uses stupid, unquantifiable things like "eye test" to rank teams. 

I'm saying that even with the OSU win, Oregon is the 15th best team in the country based on body of work alone. 

I'm saying save the eye test for your optometrist.

What They Did

ESPN had the committee stir the pot while at the same time leaving the door open for teams like Michigan, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, and Baylor.

What do you guys think?

Week 10 Top 25

Another weekend of weird games. I've been having conversations online with Neanderthals. You know, the folks who say things like "muh team beat ranked teams" and "muh team beat that team and should be ranked ahead.” Seriously, if we do not move past this ancient way of thinking, we'll never get a real playoff. And they believe in the old crap they same way the folks of the Peoples Temple Agricultural Project believed Jim Jones. Maybe we can move them to Guyana?

Speaking of the playoff, the first CFI (College Football Invitational) rankings hit on Tuesday. Any bets that Bama is #2? Well hey, if they can provide a fake playoff, so can I!

Anyway, my preview was a bit of a mess. How many did I miss on? Ugh.

#1 Notre Dame 44
#22 North Carolina 34 - This could be a game that solidifies ND as a contender in the eyes of the Commies...er, I mean Committee.

Meh, not very impressive, but a win is a win?

#2 Georgia 34
#59 Florida 7 - Hmm...which Florida shows up? I expect UGA to do their thing even if JT can't go. Smart has said things like he's doing "a good job" and he hasn't seen "a lot of limitations" which sounds like code for "We're going with the short guy."

Nailed it.

#3 Michigan 33
#26 Michigan State 37 - Not as close a game as the AP wants you to believe.  

Much closer than I would have believed, but knowing that Harbaugh is incapable of making 2nd half adjustments, not surprising.

#4 Cincinnati 31
#113 Tulane 12 - Fickell and squad need to dominate. 

Not exactly a dominant performance, despite the score. We'll need to see what the committee says to see if I was right.

#5 Oklahoma State 55
#120 Kansas 3 - yawn...maybe? I feel like the Cowboys may be out to prove something. 

Yep, proved a point.

#7 Wake Forest 45
#102 Duke 7 - Definitely yawn 

zzzzzzz...

#8 Iowa 7
#12 Wisconsin 27 - This one is being overlooked by too many people. Watch out for the Badgers. Iowa has had 2 weeks to stew over the Purdue loss, which is probably worse than just going the next weekend. 

Nailed it.

#9 Ole Miss 20
#28 Auburn 31 - Can Kiffin keep it going? He's so inconsistent. Maybe the real Bo Nix will show up for Auburn? If he does, this could be a barn burner with him and Corral. 

OK, I'm taking partial credit on this one. Not Corral's fault his 3 top receivers were out.

#10 Penn State 24
#11 Ohio State 33 - I expect OSU to hang 50 on these guys, too. That said, PSU always gets way up for the Buckeyes, but I'm completely unimpressed with their offense. 

Still unimpressed with PSU O, and OSU looked terrible.

#13 Oklahoma 52
#67 Texas Tech 21 - If TT plays D, we could see OU's first loss of the season. Probably not, though. It's better to be lucky than good. 

Yup, "probably not."

#14 BYU 66
#15 Virginia 49 - A UVa win will bring them to the spotlight. A BYU win does the same. 

And the light shines on Provo!

#16 Minnesota 41
#93 Northwestern 14 - Fitz will need a lot of help here! 

Help not received.

#17 Purdue 28
#84 Nebraska 23 - Watch out for a Husker upset! 

Never mind.

#18 Oregon 52
#116 Colorado 29 - yawn 

zzzzz...

#19 Baylor 31
#34 Texas 24 - Does Sark have some magic left this season? 

No, he does not.

#20 Pittsburgh 34
#53 Miami (FL) 38 - I don't expect Pitt to struggle here as the Canes have disappointed all season. 

Well, Pitt didn't really struggle as Miami stuck that dagger in early and performed a mercy kill.

#24 San Diego State 20
#40 Fresno State 30 - Danger game for SDSU! 

Stranger danger! Nailed it.

#25 Kentucky 17
#37 Mississippi State 31 - I love Mike Leach, win or lose! 

Were there any good Leechisms during postgame?

Top 25

I trust we don't have to have the same old conversations about how teams got to where they are? Or why Michigan is still #3 (hint: it's the 1st lvl points and OW%)?

So let's talk about the movers! 

1. Ohio State moved up 7 spots after beating Penn State in an ugly, sloppy game by both teams. I don't know what Ryan Day was thinking. I mean, after you've been stuffed 8 or 10 times trying to run up the middle against a 8 man box, you'd think maybe to try something different? I dunno, I'm just a guy who watches the games.
2. BYU moved up 9 spots after a thorough drubbing of 6-3 UVA. The Cougs (usually) do not schedule cupcakes, and they get properly rewarded for it when they win.
3. Baylor moved up 8 spots after dumping the hapless Longhorns. Seems that the best way to beat Texas is to give them a head start.
4. UVA dropped the 9 spots that BYU climbed.
   
5. Cincinnati and OkSt dropped 4 spots after wins over teams that are so bad they may as well be FCS schools.
6. Ole Miss dropped 13 spots(!) after  losing to 6-2 Auburn...
7. ...who leapt up 11 spots from outside the top 25 to #17
8. And the big mover of the week, Michigan State jumps up 19 (NINETEEN!) spots from #26 to #7 after beating the previously undefeated Wolverines.

I just want to be clear: teams that win (against FBS schools) yet fall in the rankings do so because the teams they beat did not offer up enough points on any level to keep up with teams who beat much better schools. 

Example: Cincinnati beat Tulane which rewarded the Bearcats with 0.1077 1st level points, while Michigan State beat UM and earned 0.9770 1st level points. So both teams won, but we can easily see that the MSU win was much better than the UC win. Think of it as a race to the most points.

So, how about some playoff fun? That's why we're here, right?

Ray's Final Four

 

I'm pretty sure that if this particular playoff ever happens, the ENTIRE South would look like Scanners:

Really, this is the argument for an expanded playoff. How about we look at that. We'll try a doubling.

Ray's Elite Eight

I feel like this would be a lot of fun, just to see Bama in The Big House in December! If we want to swap 7 and 8 to avoid a rematch in round 1, that's fine with me. Still, we're leaving out a lot of schools. Let's do more!

Ray's Sweet Sixteen

How would this work? We'll need a few changes from the NCAA to have 16 teams in a 4 round playoff.

1. Limit teams to 10 regular season games. Yes, this is going backward a little, but the NCAA will try to give lip service to "player health" even though everyone knows they could not care less so long as money is flowing. So, 10 games.
1. 10 games makes sure that every regular season game matters more than they do now. It encourages scheduling strong out of conference games, too. Why?
2. 8 in-conference games required for all conferences wishing to participate in the playoff.
1. If a conference does not want to participate, it can leave open dates to schedule teams from participating conferences who will not make the top 16. Since those teams only have 10 scheduled, they can add 2 at the end if they want.
3. Playoff teams are selected using the Massey Composite rankings. 
1. No more votes.
2. No more eye tests
3. No more bias.
   
4. Higher seeded teams get home games in the first 2 rounds.
1. If you're knocked out, you can still go to a bowl game for 12 or 13 total games that season.
5. Top 4 work just like it is now.
   

Yes, there would be some serious changes. Still, we get as much football as we do now, and the playoff is actually a playoff! Change for the better is good, and we should embrace it no matter how scary it may seem.

I moved OkSt and Wisky, OU and Iowa to keep from having in-conference 1st round games. Other than that, does this not look like much more fun that the current BS we get from the Central Committee?

So, what do you guys think? Should I run for King of CFB to fix the playoff?