I know everyone is using the word "chaos" to describe the season, and for sure we have seen some weird stuff. Still, I find it less chaotic given that my expectations are tempered by my rankings.
It's OK though, plenty of exciting football this weekend!
#76 Navy 6
#1 Notre Dame 34
"Danger, Will Robinson!" As I've said many times, service academies
are scary for "normal" teams. We'll see if the Irish learned anything
from Cincinnati.
The Irish certainly looked better than Cincinnati did vs the Middies.
#105 Missouri 6
#2 Georgia 43
I do not understand Kirby Smart. Probably never will. He's got to know that Daniels has the same potential as Fields and Lawrence, but he keeps #2 as the starter. I get that Daniels has been fragile, but he's a guy you went after to transfer to you.
#103 Indiana 7
#3 Michigan 29
I don't expect to see much here. And I figure UM is pretty fired up after letting one get away last week.
OK, I really expected a blowout. Looks like the UM defense showed up at least.
#4 Ohio State 26
#88 Nebraska 17
I hope Frost doesn't get fired after this. Martinez has been playing
better, and you know they'll be up for this one. I wonder which OSU
offense will show up?
Frost is on the verge of something pretty darn good, maybe. OSU looked terrible again. I am firmly in the Kyle McCord camp at this point, because every time Stroud has been put under pressure, he plays poorly.
FCS Idaho State 14
#5 BYU 59
Who cares? It should be illegal to play FCS schools.
#51 LSU 14
#6 Alabama 20
Well, we almost had ourselves a 2-loss Tide late in the season. As bad as OSU looked, Bama actually looked worse.
#7 Michigan State 29
#20 Purdue 40
Danger game here. I'm still not impressed with MSU but they did a
good job against UM. Which Purdue do we get? The crazy upset machine, or
the doormat of the B1G?
I guess we know which Boilermaker team showed up, eh? Nailed. It. MSU will need to win out to get back into the good graces of the CFI committee. And letting O'Connell throw for 536 (FIVE HUNDRED THIRTY SIX!) yards against you is not a good look.
#112 Tulsa 20
#8 Cincinnati 28
Fickell better run it up, or the committee will keep pushing them down.
I feel that the Manbearpigs are like Iowa State, playing up or down to their competition. This certainly didn't help their playoff chances.
#9 Oklahoma State 24
#43 West Virginia 3
Could be another danger game, and WVa has the tools to score a lot of points.
OK, maybe not so much on the "lots of points" thing.
#10 Wisconsin 52
#55 Rutgers 3
Schiano has been doing a great job making Rutgers at least
competitive compared to previous seasons in the B1G. Still, I expect the
Wisky D to do their thing.
Wow! 52 points from the rimbling bumbling stumbling Badgers? Too many people sleeping on these guys.
#11 Baylor 28
#73 TCU 30
I wonder where Patterson will end up. The guy single-handedly made TCU relevant in DI football.
This was the surprise of the weekend for me. I figured with Patterson gone the Frogmen would be distracted and that Baylor would make them pay. I guess they got fired up.
#13 Wake Forest 55
#30 North
Carolina 58
My upset pick of the week.
Nailed. It. Again.
#14 Iowa 17
#91 Northwestern 12
Gawd I really want Fitzy to have a good game with his guys, but I just don't see Iowa giving him that option.
Northwestern tried to make it interesting, and Iowa helped out by changing QBs late in the season.
#15 Oregon 26
#101 Washington 16
I really want this to be a danger game for Oregon, and you know that
UW really hates the Ducks. I don't think it will matter, but Washington
at home could be a problem if they weren't just awful this season.
UW played better than I'd have thought, and Oregon did just enough to get out of Seattle alive. Yet another "top" team with an unimpressive effort.
#16 Penn State 31
#49 Maryland 14
Lil Tag isn't really getting it done, but I'll try to watch because I
really like the MD uniforms. Should be fun seeing how Franklin gets PSU
to bounce back.
Only got to see a little, took my son to watch Eternals. Fun but I think I need to watch again. The movie, that is. PSU took care of business even though they gave up a lot of yards.
#17 Auburn 3
#33 Texas A&M 20
Again, which Bo Nix do we get? Can Auburn keep the momentum going? Will
A&M show some flashes of the team we saw last season?
Not really surprising, but I expected more than one touchdown given these guys' offensive abilities. Weird.
#59 Illinois 14
#18 Minnesota 6
I doubt that the Gophs will have any problems here.
This is why I should just shut up maybe. What the heck, Gophers?
#19 Boise State 40
#27 Fresno State 14
Go Broncos! Sorry.
Boy, did they go! Broncos still have a chance at the conference championship but need some help.
#21 Utah 52
#56 Stanford 7
Ouch. Just ouch. Can you believe Stanford is paying David Shaw nearly $9 MILLION dollars to be this bad?
#75 Liberty 14
#22 Ole Miss 27
Not really an awful showing by Liberty, all things considered
#23 Air Force 21
#67 Army 14 OT
Go Army! Beat Navy! After beating AF in OT.
#25 SDSU 17
#82 Hawaii 10
If you have to hit an away spot, This. Is. It. I don't expect the Rainbow Warriors to challenge here.
Enjoying Hawaií and winning a football game.That's a good weekend in anybody's book.
I think Texas @ Iowa State could be a fun one. 2 teams both needing a win to make the season something to build on.
Seriously, what is up with Texas and the second half? They are just awful after halftime.
Top 25
Gotta say that I am surprised at the magnitude of these moves this late in the season. Makes me think that we are much closer to parity than it may seem if we only look at the Invitational committee and continue to give undeserved credence to the AP.
And yes, I know some of you will lose your minds over 3-loss teams even being considered. If that's you, and you haven't bothered to try to understand my system, just shut up. Don't spread your ignorance any further than that empty space between your ears.
Rank (prev Rank) Team Record (total score)
25 (prev 40) Arkansas 6-3 (0.6275) A win over 5-4 Miss St brings the Piggies back into my top 25
24 (prev 17) Auburn 6-3 (0.6339) Bad loss drops Bo Nix and company 7 spots this week.
23 (prev 21) Utah 6-3 (0.6619) Stomped a really bad Stanford, no real points to help the Utes
22 (prev 19) Boise State 5-4 (0.6763) Big win unfortunately against a not very good Fresno
21 (prev 22) Ole Miss 7-2 (0.6841) Lane Kiffin has the guys winning, but they need better competition to fill that glass faster.
20 (prev 18) Minnesota 6-3 (0.6869) Only dropped 2 places after losing to Illinois.
19 (prev 30) North Carolina 5-4 (0.6941) Beating an 8-0 teams nets you some pretty good points, regardless of how light that 8-0 schedule was.
18 (prev 13) Wake Forest 8-1 (0.7145) Wake's schedule wasn't completely awful, but without NC it's not great. Gotta win the games you're supposed to win.
17 (prev 15) Oregon 8-1 (0.7354) Beating UW is almost the same as a loss (zero points awarded). Ask Cincinnati.
16 (prev 11) Baylor 7-2 (0.7673) TCU broke Baylor's back this season. Not sure they can climb out of that hole.
15 (prev 12) Oklahoma 9-0 (0.8162) Did not play
14 (prev 8) Cincinnati 9-0 (0.8170) Kinda weird having back to back 9-0 teams down here, but this is what we get. The Manbearpigs beat an awful Tulsa and got almost zero points for it.
13 (prev 7) Michigan State 8-1 (0.8183) Purdue is just plain dangerous against highly ranked teams. No clue why.
12 (prev 33) Texas A&M 7-2 (0.8257) Beating 6-win Auburn vaults the Aggies up the list a bunch.
11 (prev 5) BYU 8-2 (0.8423) Play an FCS school, take a loss for cheating.
10 (prev 14) Iowa 7-2 (0.8461) There are a lot of B1G teams up here. I am surprised, truly.
9 (prev 16) Penn State 6-3 (0.8520) Not really sure why beating 5-win Maryland nets you a 7 spot jump, but the math bears it out.
8 (prev 20) Purdue 6-3 (0.8620) Obviously beating 8-0 MSU gets you some serious points
7 (prev 4) Ohio State 8-1 (0.9392) Beating a 3-7 team is similar to taking a loss. I really like what my adjusted victory points are doing this season.
6 (prev 3) Michigan 8-1 (0.9451) Another workmanlike win for the Wolverines, but against a really bad team.
5 (prev 9) Oklahoma State 8-1 (0.9481) Beating WVU who beat Iowa St netted enough points to move up while teams ahead of them played bad teams and moved down.
4 (prev 6) Alabama (0.9898) Similar to OkSt, beating a mediocre team is better than beating a bad team.
3 (prev 2) Georgia (1.0165) Look, for my money UGA is the best team in the country by a mile. That said, you have to play better teams for the algorithm to award you more points. Sorry.
2 (prev 10) Wisconsin (1.0612) Like I said, surprised by the magnitude of the moves. Maryland is 5-4 with a decent SoS so the math works. Still, it's a shock.
1 (prev 1) Notre Dame (1.2424) Best win of the season but against a truly awful Navy. It's just as surprising to see the Irish holding on.
I think we're all familiar with the methodology at this point. How about some playoff goodness?
Ray's Final Four
Not too shabby, though I expect we'd see a UGA-Bama final. Again. 4 teams is just not enough for a real sport. We. Need. More.
Ray's Elite Eight
Looks like the B1G football tournament. Such an odd year all the way around. How about a real playoff?
I was going to move the teams around to avoid in-conference round 1 games, but there are simply too many B1G teams to make that work. Still, there are a few tasty matchups like OU at Wisky in December!
So, I know it looks like a Big 10 love fest, but that's just what the algorithm spit out. It'll sort itself out over the next 3 weeks, no doubt.
You can go here to see the full Top 25 rankings numbers.
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