I'm Pretty Sure They're High

 Of course, I'm talking about the CFB Invitational Committee. 

I was going to use this post to do my comparison between the AP, CFI, and Massey's, but truly this first list appears to be the most ridiculous they've ever come up with. I say "appears" because all is not as it seems, and I am going to break down the "why."

Here are the CFI top 6, just for reference:

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Michigan State
4. Oregon
5. Ohio State
6. Cincinnati
   

Georgia:

• 8-0 with wins over Auburn, Kentucky, and a Florida heading in the wrong direction.
  
• 2nd in 1st level points; 4th in 2nd level points; 12th in 3rd level points 
• Opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 37-20 (.649) 
• Opponent's opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 240-164 (.594) 
• SoS (BCS style) .631 good for 18th best

Easy case to make for UGA being top 4. We haven't seen a defense this good since maybe ever. And while their offense hasn't set the world on fire, it hasn't had to.

Alabama:

• 7-1 with a loss to #33 Texas A&M (6-2)
• 8th in 1st level points; 9th in 2nd level points; 13th in 3rd level points 
• Opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 29-19 (.604) 
• Opponent's opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 225-139 (.604) 
• SoS (BCS style) .609 good for 29th best
  

Honestly, this is not terrible for Alabama. From my previous research, their SoS is usually much worse, as is their OW%. If I go back to an older version of my system and take the average ranks of 1st, 2nd, 3rd level points, and SRS, Bama stays 6th. This works well enough, as they've done the job. Problem is there are teams that should be ahead of them.

Michigan State:

• 8-0 with a win over #3 UM (7-1)
  
• 6th in 1st level points; 7th in 2nd level points; 8th in 3rd level points 
• Opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 27-22 (.551) 
• Opponent's opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 236-122 (.659) 
• SoS (BCS style) .587 good for 42nd best
  

The win over the Wolverines is what really makes the difference here. UM has a lot of 1st level points, and that really moved the Spartans up. Again, if I use the average ranked position MSU moves from 7 to 5. Not as large a shocker to see them at 3 for the CFI.Still, there are more deserving teams.

Oregon:

• 7-1 with a loss to #56 Stanford (3-5)
  
• 15th in 1st level points; 13th in 2nd level points; 16th in 3rd level points 
• Opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 26-24 (.520) 
• Opponent's opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 212-173 (.551) 
• SoS (BCS style) .530 good for 87th best 

And here's the real problem. Oregon is riding the OSU win for all its worth and then some. If they hadn't lost to a terrible Stanford, they're in the same boat as MSU and the discussion is much more civil. But they did lose, and here's what happens if you take away the OSU win (all I did was give them a win over 4-4 SJSU instead of 7-1 OSU):

•  28th in 1st level points; 31st in 2nd level points; 42nd in 3rd level points 
• Opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 24-28 (.462) 
• Opponent's opponent's record (minus head to head and not counting FCS) 209-183 (.533) 
• SoS (BCS style) .485 good for 113th best

Now it's true that something similar happens to MSU if I do the same, but MSU is undefeated. I usually vomit all over folks who try to use that fact as the sole measuring stick, but here the added points would matter a great deal.

 

Ohio State and Cincinnati both have better numbers than Oregon, as do many other teams.

 

What am I Saying? 

I'm saying that 3 of the top 4 are somewhat reasonable given that the Central Committee uses stupid, unquantifiable things like "eye test" to rank teams. 

I'm saying that even with the OSU win, Oregon is the 15th best team in the country based on body of work alone. 

I'm saying save the eye test for your optometrist.

What They Did

ESPN had the committee stir the pot while at the same time leaving the door open for teams like Michigan, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, and Baylor.

What do you guys think?