Lots of folks out there are making ridiculous claims that they can't back up. What I'm seeing right now is the usual "so and so hasn't played anyone, why are they ranked" crap. Let's take my most recent interaction with some FB geniuses:

  • Them: why is Michigan on this list [not my list, BTW]? they haven't played anyone!
  • Me: their SoS is stronger than Bama or UGA
  • Them: you're an idiot/you can't be serious/etc

Let's break it down for everyone. We'll compare Bama and Michigan. This might get long:


RkSchoolRecScore1ST2ND3RDSRSW%OW%OOW%SOSSOS rankOW% rank
MICH1Michigan4-00.77210.58850.01970.024127.97001.0000.6250.7080.6532949
ALA3Alabama4-00.54700.41350.01760.013020.59001.0000.5000.7440.5815675

Michigan's 1st, 2nd, and 3rd level points are better than Bama's; SRS is higher, too. The Wolverines' OW% is better while their OOW% is a little worse. Michigan's SoS is a decent chunk higher than Bama's.

4-0 Bama has played:

  • 2-2 Miami (FL) #52
    • 3-1 App State #48
      • 2-2 East Carolina #79
      • 2-2 Marshal#89
      • FCS Elon
    • FCS Central Connecticut
  • FCS Mercer - this is key!
  • 3-1 Florida #13
    • 2-2 Florida Atlantic #86
      • 1-3 Georgia Southern #115
      • FCS Fordham
    • 1-3 USF #100
      • FCS Florida A&M
    • 2-2 Tennessee #57
      • 2-2 Bowling Green #68
      • FCS Tennessee Tech
  • 1-3 Southern Miss #110
    • FCS Grambling State
4-0 Michigan has played:
  • 3-1 Western Michigan #23
    • FCS Illinois St
    • 3-1 Pitt #45
      • 0-4 UMass #116
      • 2-2 Tennessee #57
      • FCS UNH
    • 2-2 SJSU #87
      • FCS Southern Utah
      • 2-3 Hawaii #101
  • 2-2 Washington #121
    • 1-3 Arkansas State #112
      • FCS Central Arkansas
    • 1-3 Cal #103
      • FCS Sac St
  • 2-2 Northern Illinois #44
    • 2-2 Georigia Tech #33
      • FCS Kennesaw St
      • 2-2 UNC #24
    • FCS Maine
  • 3-1 Rutgers #26
    • 2-2 Temple #90
      • 1-3 Akron #114
      •  FCS Wagner
    • 3-1 Syracuse #54
      • 0-4 Ohio #130
      • FCS Albany
      • 3-1 Liberty #55
    • FCS Delaware
So, these are the "win trees" for each team. The way to read it is:
Bama beat Miami; Miami beat App State and Central Conn; App State beat ECU, Marshal, & Elon; Central Conn is FCS

FCS schools do not count. The longer the win tree, the fewer FCS schools in your 1st and 2nd levels. Bama has 7 FCS schools in their branches: 1ea 1st level (very bad), 2ea 2nd level (not good), and 4 3rd level (minor inconvenience). UM has 10 FCS schools in their branches: 0ea 1st level (very good), 3ea 2nd level (not good), and 7ea 3rd level. Even with more FCS schools downstream, UM comes out ahead by not having any 1st level and a similar number of 2nd level.

The Tide beat UF by 2 after coming off a win over football powerhouse Mercer. Think that game has a different outcome if they played LSU or South Carolina? I do.

You can say what you like about your team and other teams, but your beliefs do not make for evidence. You can disagree with the methodology if you wish, that's fine, but keep in mind that changing it because it disagrees with your worldview is nothing more than confirmation bias. Get over it.

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