There is a reason I preach the "no voters, computer only" gospel. I've explained it more than enough times. If you're curious, I have a few blog posts that go into great detail. Suffice to say that voters are fickle and biased.
I say that as a reminder that people like RJ Young and Joel Klatt cannot be counted on to be objective, and that they tend to disregard things like SoS. We all do it. It's human nature to be biased. This is why I created my system: to remove the bias. Any changes I make to my algorithm affects all teams equally.
That said, this was a pretty exciting weekend of football! Let's start with a recap of my previews:
- Zona looked not awful for a little while. Just a little while. It was 19-24 at the end of 3.
- UGA had more TD's than Vandy had 1st downs.
- "Baylor gets up for big games, the Cyclones play down to their competition. Upset in the making?" Nailed it.
- OkSt over K-State. Yawn
- MSU-Neb did not disappoint. The Huskers in the game all night, forcing OT.
- Rutgers held UM to 20 and lost by 7. That's a win for Schiano and the boys.
- UF got right back on track. Not sure I buy the 2QB system though.
- OU is not a top 10 team. Rattler was 26 of 36 with a TD and a pick. They needed a last second FG to beat #50 WVa.
- "I think Chip Kelly has them [UCLA] ready to play and we see that the Tree is still just 'ok'." Nailed it again.
- I didn't actually predict a Razorback win, but I think my feelings were clear lol!
- ND-Wisky were tied at the end of 3. Let's not lose sight of that fact. When the wheels come off of the Badgers, they come all the way off!
I also enjoyed the BC-Missou OT, but I somehow missed the BG over Minnesota upset. Ouch.
If I'm Ryan Day, I have a QB quandary. Kyle McCord was 13/18 for 319 yds and 2 TD to 1 INT. Only the 4th true freshman to start for OSU ever.
So, after all the fallout from yesterday, where do we stand? Things certainly got weirder. I had to think about it, and the reason I keep being surprised is the 1st level point changes each week.
Now, I gave this more thought in regards to the FCS penalty. I've said a few times that playing an FCS school gives a team an unfair advantage over teams who do not. Pretty obvious. And I've said before that the penalty should be treating the game as a loss. For some reason it just today occurred to me that in my system a loss is just 0 pts, not -1 pts. Not sure how I missed that for so long? Anyway, I made the adjustment and here's what we have!
Top 25
It just gets weirder every week. I do think that changing the FCS wins to 0 and FCS losses to -1 makes more sense, and it gives more reasonable results that are in line with the design of the system, so we've got that going for us.
Yes, UTSA is ranked higher than Oregon. Oregon played Stony Brook, so that's counted as a loss (UTSA played Lamar, so that's a push). Oregon's signature win is over OSU, ranked 46th currently. That Minnesota loss did them no favors, and we can clearly see the trickle up effects of downstream points. The Gophers lose, OSU's 1st, 2nd, and 3rd level scores are negatively affected, and that makes Oregon's points derived from the OSU win less valuable.
As. It. Should. Be.
At the end of the day, UTSA has played better teams than Oregon has. 0.3 pt difference in 1st level points, and only a 0.0406 gap between the teams.
Look, we all know that UTSA is not a powerhouse. Most teams have played 4 games so far, so we're starting to get some usable data, but really we need more. As I've stated, 4 games is when we start to get enough data points for anything to make sense. Watch; in the next 2-3 weeks we'll see it all start to come together. For now, enjoy the chaos!
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