Let me explain...

OK, I need to explain a few things because truthfully my numbers this week are ridiculous. I wanted to tell you that I have double and triple checked my spreadsheet and I can't find any issues, or at least nothing obvious.

Here's me vs the AP:

APRRDiff
1GeorgiaSEC3433
2MichiganBig Ten119
3Ohio StateBig Ten30
4TexasBig 121-3
5Florida StateACC127
6Penn StateBig Ten2-4
7Southern CaliforniaPac-12114107
8WashingtonPac-122416
9OregonPac-122819
10AlabamaSEC9-1
11Notre DameIndependent132
12OklahomaBig 124-8
13North CarolinaACC8-5
14Washington StatePac-127-7
15MississippiSEC6-9
16Oregon StatePac-123115
17Miami (FL)ACC181
18TennesseeSEC5436
19UtahPac-1215-4
20KentuckySEC11393
21DukeACC17-4
22MissouriSEC4422
23Louisiana StateSEC19-4
24Fresno StateMountain West11288
25LouisvilleACC5-20

As you can see, I have some HUGE variances. Why? It's the system. Lets start with Georgia.

RkSchoolRecScore1ST2NDSRS
34Georgia6-00.07550.2980-0.381815.5000

First, UGAs 1st level points are bad. This is because of who they've played, plain and simple. 

FCS Tennesee-Martin (pain here)
#129 Ball State
#40 South Carolina
#56 UAB
#90 Auburn
#113 Kentucky

Already not great, and as you can guess these teams have terrible 1st level points and are a combined 13-15. Bad 1st level points means UGA's 2nd level points are equally bad. Now add in the mediocre SRS score and here we are at #34.

And I can already hear you: "Kentucky at 113???!?!?" Yes.

#129 Ball State
FCS Eastern Kentucky
#133 Akron
#100 Vandy
#76 Florida
#34 UGA - Loss

C'mon. Talk about overrated. 

#114 USC needs some explanation as well, even though the issue is the same.

#126 SJSU 1-5
#130 Nevada 0-5
#95 Stanford 1-4
#127 AZ State 1-5
#77 Colorado (sorry, Prime) 4-2
#101 Zona 3-3

That's a combined 10-24, a .294 winning percentage. And they needed 3OT to beat Zona! Ouch.

Now, let's look at #4 Oklahoma.

#109 Arkansas St
#84 SMU
#71 Tulsa
#72 Cincinnati
#29 Iowa State
#1 Texas

RkSchoolRecScore1ST2NDSRSSOS
4Oklahoma6-01.01030.54550.218224.820045
34Georgia6-00.07550.2980-0.381815.500097

Both teams are 6-0. That's the only thing they share. OU has nearly double the 1st level points, 0.6000 more 2nd level points, and nearly double in SRS. SoS? Also clearly favors OU. 

RkSchoolRecScore1ST2NDSRSSOS
7Washington State4-10.84530.38330.300215.940013
114Southern Cal6-0-0.89620.1793-1.191711.5400129

The differences here are even more stark. FWIW, UW is being hurt by the same issue, only less so.

Look, I know that these teams cannot control their conference schedules. And there's no way to know how good or bad a conference opponent will be in a given season (with exceptions for top tier schools like Bama and OSU). At the end of the day, that's just too bad. A couple of decent out of conference games would make all the difference. 

So hey, I'm sorry that your team has played a marshmallow schedule. Suck it up, buttercup.

Anyway, I know no one reads this. It's ok. I love you still!



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