OK, I need to explain a few things because truthfully my numbers this week are ridiculous. I wanted to tell you that I have double and triple checked my spreadsheet and I can't find any issues, or at least nothing obvious.
Here's me vs the AP:
As you can see, I have some HUGE variances. Why? It's the system. Lets start with Georgia.
First, UGAs 1st level points are bad. This is because of who they've played, plain and simple.
#129 Ball State
#40 South Carolina
#56 UAB
#90 Auburn
#113 Kentucky
Already not great, and as you can guess these teams have terrible 1st level points and are a combined 13-15. Bad 1st level points means UGA's 2nd level points are equally bad. Now add in the mediocre SRS score and here we are at #34.
And I can already hear you: "Kentucky at 113???!?!?" Yes.
C'mon. Talk about overrated.
#114 USC needs some explanation as well, even though the issue is the same.
That's a combined 10-24, a .294 winning percentage. And they needed 3OT to beat Zona! Ouch.
Now, let's look at #4 Oklahoma.
Both teams are 6-0. That's the only thing they share. OU has nearly double the 1st level points, 0.6000 more 2nd level points, and nearly double in SRS. SoS? Also clearly favors OU.
The differences here are even more stark. FWIW, UW is being hurt by the same issue, only less so.
Look, I know that these teams cannot control their conference schedules. And there's no way to know how good or bad a conference opponent will be in a given season (with exceptions for top tier schools like Bama and OSU). At the end of the day, that's just too bad. A couple of decent out of conference games would make all the difference.
So hey, I'm sorry that your team has played a marshmallow schedule. Suck it up, buttercup.
Anyway, I know no one reads this. It's ok. I love you still!
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