Well, looks like we're starting to see everyone's actual levels. As usual I was at work, so I missed all of the early and midafternoon games. I did watch nearly all of the Duke-ND game, the end of the Ole Miss-LSU game, kept an eye on Oregon State-Utah and UGA-Auburn, and snuck a few peeks at Kentucky-UF. I tried to see some of the USC-Colorado game, too. Basically I had Hulu up on my phone all day and whenever I had a minute I'd flip through the games playing. Were there any surprising outcomes for you?
Keeping in mind that we don't take "eye test" seriously around here, these are the games that I enjoyed:
- Duke-ND: I figured the Irish would either be fired up over last week or just be flat for the same reason. Turns out it was neither. Odd. The ND defense played very well yet again, and the Irish played their ball control game to the utmost. Of course, that's because their offense looked just awful. It's like they learned nothing from the OSU game. That said, Duke looked pretty darned good for a basketball school! They hung tough the entire game and damn near won it outright. VERY entertaining ending!
- Oregon St-Utah: While I hoped that the Beavers would make a mess of the Pac12, I wasn't really expecting them to win. I do wonder how that game goes if Rising is healthy for Utah, but as it went they were held to under 200 yards total offense.
- UGA-Auburn: Similar to last season, UGA is playing down to their competition. That game was in doubt for the Bulldogs for 58 minutes. Auburn was clearly fired up, but what should have been was coving number 19! Brock Bowers single handedly killed the Tigers' chance of winning.
- USC-Colorado: Even though they lost, I feel like the Buffs made. the bigger statement here. I mean, it was 34-14 at half. After last week's beat down in Oregon, no one would have blamed them for just going through the motions in the 2nd half. I don't know what Coach Prime said to them in the locker room, but they came out and won that 2nd half 27-14.
- Ole Miss-LSU: Seems like these two teams didn't get the memo about running fewer plays per game? These guys combined for a total of 166 plays without OT! LSU was up 49-40 with about 8 minutes left, and their win probability was 70% with 1:05 left in the game. Lane Kiffin did not care. It was an exciting last quarter of football.
- Kentucky-UF: It was the score that surprised me. UK kinda stomped the Gators. Saw a great tweet about UF since the cleat toss:
- 15-19 record
- 6-14 conf record
- 2-9 vs Top 25 (like that means anything)
- 0-3 vs Kentucky
- 0-2 vs UGA
- 0-3 vs LSU
- 1-1 vs FSU
- 1-1 vs Tenn
- 0-3 in bowls
- 2 consecutive losing seasons
OK, moving on.
I mentioned on FB that I broke the system by forgetting to add Jacksonville State and Sam Houston. Eesh - 6 hours to fix the spreadsheet and only found the error by luck.
As per usual, these kinds of things force me to re-evaluate the entire system. I think I need to go back to basics (or as basic as my system can be). So, new points system is in place:
- Power 5 schools are worth 1.0 point if you beat them, and you lose 0.5 if you lose to them.
- G5 upper tier schools are worth 0.75 for a win and you lose the same by losing to. them.
- G5 lower tier schools are worth 0.5 if you beat them, and you lose 1.0 by losing.
- FCS schools are worth 0 for a win and you lose 2.0 if you lose to one.
So without further ado, here we go:
Let's talk about 2nd level points. These are the 1st level points of the teams you've beaten. So you get your first level points for beating them, and you get their 1st level points as well. 2nd level points correlate well with strength of schedule. Sorta. Anyway, this is how 5-0 USC ends up at 22. Here are the Trojans' 1st level opponents:
Not awful. Pac 12 usually doesn't schedule FCS schools, so no surprise here. But the 2nd level points (the 1st level points of the opponents you've beaten)?
What's it all mean? Look at the OW% column. USC's opponents have won slightly less than 1/4 of all their games. Look at the SOS column. There are 133 D1 schools and the Trojans' SOS is 129th. That they're even ranked is a testament to how good Colorado is.
Oregon State has a problem with 1st level points. Playing SJSU, UC Davis, and SDSU did not help. I mean, Davis? Really?
How is Colorado ranked ahead of USC? SoS tells the tale. And I'm not 100% sure how Mizzou dropped that much. Probably from the points change. Also, play better teams.
Rutgers is doing their thing again. I smell an upset from them in the near future.
I know I sound like a broken record (if you are of a younger generation you can Google it), but if your 1st level points are up but your 2nd level points are down, you're beating mostly trash. Oregon and Ole Miss are sitting at opposite ends of that spectrum.
10. Notre Dame 5-1 Prev 24 Chg +14
Tot 1st lvl 2nd lvl SRS SoS OW% OOW%
0.8178 0.4583 0.1250 17.24 35 0.652 0.558
Beat Duke in another thriller for them. SoS is solid.
9. Oklahoma 5-0 Prev 10 Chg +1
Tot 1st lvl 2nd lvl SRS SoS OW% OOW%
0.8394 0.7500 -0.2000 23.33 76 0.520 0.644
Stomped Iowa State. Not making a lot of noise this season, but scoring lots of points!
8. North Carolina 4-0 Prev 19 Chg +11
Tot 1st lvl 2nd lvl SRS SoS OW% OOW%
0.9050 0.8750 -0.1768 15.63 104 0.450 0.614
Bye. Another team not making a lot of noise, but beating the teams they’re supposed to and those teams are not awful (well, Pitt is awful this season).
7. Michigan 5-0 Prev 6 Chg -1
Tot 1st lvl 2nd lvl SRS SoS OW% OOW%
0.9804 0.8000 -0.1500 27.52 82 0.520 0.617
Crushed Rutgers. Steamrolling folks just like the past 2 seasons. SoS is kinda weak.
6. Ohio State 4-0 Prev 5 Chg -1
Tot 1st lvl 2nd lvl SRS SoS OW% OOW%
1.0716 0.6250 0.1774 20.52 24 0.625 0.672
Bye. Definitely benefitting from the ND victory over Duke!
5. Washington 5-0 Prev 7 Chg +2
Tot 1st lvl 2nd lvl SRS SoS OW% OOW%
1.0861 0.9000 -0.1000 23.03 81 0.520 0.634
Beat Arizona St 31-24 but it wasn’t that close. Penix is killing it again this season. Funny how certain QBs transfer to the Pac 12 and “suddenly” become more effective (Penix, Nix, Uiagalelei)
4. Miami (FL) 4-0 Prev 3 Chg -1
Tot 1st lvl 2nd lvl SRS SoS OW% OOW%
1.1135 0.5625 0.2778 21.10 33 0.667 0.532
Bye. Just really doing well across the board. Yet another team flying under the AP and ESPN radars. SoS matters folks.
3. Washington State 4-0 Prev 4 Chg +1
Tot 1st lvl 2nd lvl SRS SoS OW% OOW%
1.2576 0.6875 0.3010 20.41 20 0.692 0.566
Bye. If you beat teams that are beating decent teams, this is the result. That win over Oregon State gets bigger each week.
2. Penn State 5-0 Prev 2 Chg ~
Tot 1st lvl 2nd lvl SRS SoS OW% OOW%
1.5542 0.8000 0.4750 22.32 78 0.533 0.613
Beat up on Northwestern. 1st and 2nd level points are up there.
1. Texas 5-0 Prev 1 Chg ~
Tot 1st lvl 2nd lvl SRS SoS OW% OOW%
1.8249 0.8500 0.6250 28.58 23 0.650 0.624
Smashed KU. Looked like it might be interesting for about 10 minutes. Look at those 2nd level points!
Hmmm. Feels like someone is missing from my top 25. Who could it be?
Yes, where exactly is Georgia? In this case, the Schedule Every Cupcake label fits to a tee. UGA has played:
Tennesee-Martin (FCS) = 0 1st lvl, 0 2nd lvl
Ball State = 0.5 1st lvl, -3.5 2nd lvl
South Carolina = 1.0 1st lvl, -0.5 2nd lvl
UAB = 0.5 1st lvl, -3.25 2nd lvl
Auburn = 1.0 1st lvl, 0.5 2nd lvl
That nets them a 0.600 1st level point average, and a -0.625 2nd level point average. That's really bad. They're 33, right behind TCU and just ahead of Maryland.
RR vs AP
I'm not even going to get too deeply into this. You know the drill:
Yes, I have Utah at 114. I hate voters.
Well, here we are, closing in on the halfway point of the season and it looks like things are starting to shake out. I hope your team won this weekend!
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