Well, I'm a Dummy. My Apologies.

Full disclosure: I had to fix the second level points. I was digging around my formulas and realized I had the structure wrong. Did I mention it's a work in progress? My apologies.

My rankings were 72.7% predictive this week. Better than I would have thought.

Also, some of the movement is due to me fixing the 2nd level points formula (OU and Wisc). Basically, if the teams you've beaten have played fewer games than you, your 2nd level points divisor gets smaller, which in turn increases your 2nd level points overall. The formula for 2nd level points is this:

1. [# of games you've played] x [# of FBS teams you've beaten]
2. if that number is less than or equal to the total number of games played by the teams you've beaten, then your divisor is 120
3. if that number is greater than the total number of games played by the teams you've beaten, then 120 - ((# of games you've played x # of teams you've beaten) - # of games played by your beaten opponents))

As an example:
Utah currently has 1.6807 2nd level points.
Utah has played 10 games against FBS schools and beaten 8, so their 1st number is 80
The teams Utah has beaten have played a total of 79 games. Since this number is less than 80, we must modify the divisor per #3 above.
So, 120-((10x8)-79) = 120-(80-79) = 120-1 = 119 divisor.
Utah currently has 20 2nd level points from the teams they have beaten:
(20/119)*10 = 1.6807 2nd level points

Clear as mud?

That said, how does Baylor lose that game? I mean, Hurts was good but how do you go that long with that many possessions and come away with zero points?

Some teams are beneficiaries of having played 11 games to their opponents' 10. This is right and proper for my system: you should get an advantage for playing more games. 

Thoughts: 

• Oregon looked very good, totally unstressed. They may be better than we all think.
• OU played a very sloppy 1st half, and then actually played defense in the second half as Jalen Hurts put the team on his back and carried them to a win. Baylor folded like they had seven-deuce off suit.
• Minnesota fell victim to the Iowa curse: the Hawkeyes can't beat the teams they're supposed to, but they'll beat that team trying to make the playoff!
• UM beat up on Little Brother. OK, so has everyone else. Have the Wolverines figured something out? Will it matter on 11/30?

#5: UGA

I can't really call Auburn a "signature" win, but it was certainly a good one. The Tigers were #15 and Georgia simply handled them.

UGA's D is #6 in yds/game, #6 in yds/play, and #2 in pts/game, behind only Ohio State.

With this win, the Bulldogs win the SEC East and get to face probably LSU for an opportunity to play for the CFP championship. Is the Bulldog D good enough to stop Burrow?

#4: Penn State
I know, this one seems odd. But we have to keep in mind the theory behind the rankings: no "eye test" and who you beat and who they beat matters; there is no transitive property in CFB.

PSU has beaten #9 UM, #17 Iowa, #47 Mich St, and #55 Indiana. Those teams have beaten some other pretty good teams. And while the Nittany Lions didn't look especially awesome on Saturday, it's possible that UI is better than they currently rank.

#3: Clemson
The teams Clemson has played are not great. But, they are not as awful as many in the press (and on FB , and on Twitter) have claimed. The Tigers' 2nd level points are among the best, though they are certainly benefitting from having already played 11 games to most others' 10.

As questionable as they looked earlier (we all remember the NC game, right?), it seems that Swinney has them firing on all cylinders now. The Clemson D is #2 in yds/game and #3 in pts/game (behind UGA and OSU), and Lawrence appears to have shaken off his case of sophomore slump.

Clemson looks for real.

#2: Ohio State

Is it possible to have a "bad" win? If so, OSU had one when they phoned it in at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are ranked 102, are 2-7, and just do not have any sort of resume that adds to yours if you beat them. And they gave up 21 points? 

Of course, very few OSU starters have played 4 full quarters this year. I did the math, and if JK Dobbins had as many carries as Chuba, he'd have over 1800 yards rushing right now. If Justin Fields had the same number of pass attempts as Burrow, he'd have over 3200 yards passing, not too far behind Joe. And I'm pretty sure I saw a kid with no name on the back of his jersey on D in the 3rd quarter. As I read on Twitter, "Imagine if your film study for beating OSU's D consists of FAU, Maryland, and Rutgers." 

OSU is slowly slipping into Clemson's grasp, but OSU has a game in hand. I expect if the Buckeyes beat Penn State they will jump to the clear #1.

#1: LSU
LSU colors fly from the page for one more week at least as Jeaux Burreaux did his thing again. I didn't tune in until later and I was surprised to see Ole Miss hanging around. Then I saw a true rarity this season: a Burrow pick. Yes, he was hit as he threw, but to be honest he was really trying to thread a needle on that one and I don't think it's a completion regardless. Beyond that?

489 yds passing
5 TD
2 INT (!!!)
203 passer rtg <- ridiculous

So, the question is: how long Joe carry the team? Because their D is 44th pts/game and 51st in yds/game. And we all know that defense wins championships. What happens when LSU runs up against a Clemson or OU? Or the offensive juggernaut that is OSU? 

But the Tigers stay on top for one more week regardless. Geaux Jeaux!