So I got beat up a bit on Twitter yesterday due to some folks only reading what they wanted. It was very much like swapping stories with your buddy, in that you're listening for your turn to talk instead of listening to understand and empathize.
I make no claims to having the ultimate system for figuring out which teams are best. But I certainly can point out where the "eye test" and human biases are influencing rankings. Hell, anyone can do that. The questions I've been getting go along these lines: "You really think that [insert list of college ex-coaches and administrators and secretaries of state here] are under orders from sEcSPN?? OMGWTFBBQ??" Well...yes. But let's set that aside for now.
My system is pretty simple (or simplistic if you're feeling mean). The idea is to find a system that
is simple and accurate at the same time. With that in mind, Ray's Rankings is a work in progress. I'm still figuring out other methods. I've talked about RPI. Many think RPI sucks. Maybe it does, but can you tell us
why it sucks? I mean beyond "W/L is a terrible way to determine strength?" There are other metric out there that I'm trying to learn more about and figure out how to square away my spreadsheet to display them. Someone mentioned
adjusted point differential. OK, looks interesting but it also looks like it needs 1) a full season of data to work well, and 2) way more than 12 games.
Pythagorean wins is also interesting, but with the player turnover in CFB, how can it possibly work?
Anyway, you may rest assured that I am and will be continually striving to improve my method. I'm reading a lot, and looking for greater objective accuracy. That said, here are my week 12 predictions based 100% on my current team scores:
| Eastern Michigan | Akron |
| Western Michigan | Ohio |
| Bowling Green State | Miami (OH) |
| Northern Illinois | Toledo |
| Buffalo | Kent State |
| North Carolina | Pittsburgh |
| Fresno State | San Diego State |
| Air Force | Colorado State |
| Alabama | Mississippi State |
| Alabama State | Florida State |
| Appalachian State | Georgia State |
| Arizona | Oregon |
| Arizona State | Oregon State |
| Central Michigan | Ball State |
| Cincinnati | South Florida |
| Coastal Carolina | Arkansas State |
| Florida | Missouri |
| Georgia | Auburn |
| Hawaii | Nevada-Las Vegas |
| Idaho State | Brigham Young |
| Incarnate Word | New Mexico State |
| Indiana | Penn State |
| Kansas | Oklahoma State |
| Kentucky | Vanderbilt |
| Louisiana | South Alabama |
| Louisiana State | Mississippi |
| Louisiana Tech | Marshall |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Georgia Southern |
| Louisville | North Carolina State |
| Massachusetts | Northwestern |
| Memphis | Houston |
| Michigan State | Michigan |
| Minnesota | Iowa |
| Navy | Notre Dame |
| New Mexico | Boise State |
| Ohio State | Rutgers |
| Oklahoma | Baylor |
| Rice | Middle Tennessee State |
| South Carolina | Texas A&M |
| Southern California | California |
| Southern Mississippi | Texas-San Antonio |
| Stanford | Washington State |
| Syracuse | Duke |
| Texas | Iowa State |
| Texas Christian | Texas Tech |
| Texas-El Paso | Alabama-Birmingham |
| Troy | Texas State |
| Tulane | Temple |
| UCLA | Utah |
| Virginia Military Institute | Army |
| Virginia Tech | Georgia Tech |
| Wake Forest | Clemson |
| West Virginia | Kansas State |
| Wisconsin | Nebraska |
| Wyoming | Utah State |
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