So, what actually escalated was the number of errors I've made in the past few days. I had completely screwed up 2nd level points twice: first when I initially set up the spreadsheet, and then again yesterday when I thought I'd gotten it tight. Please ignore the rankings below and see the new blog post from 11/18/19
Full disclosure: I had to fix the second level points. I was digging around my formulas and realized I had the structure wrong.
So, I was not at all expecting this much movement after yesterday. There were a few "upsets," sure, but I badly underestimated the difference a schedule makes. If a team can have a "bad" win, OSU did that. While the Buckeyes phoned it in at Rutgers, teams around them beat better teams (though Ole Miss is actually ranked lower than Rutgers, LSU already had a good lead over everyone).
Also, my rankings were 72.7% predictive this week. Better than I would have thought.
Remember, a lot of this movement is due to me fixing the 2nd level points formula (ND, UM, and Boise). That said, how does Baylor lose that game? I mean, Hurts was good but how do you go that long with that many possessions and come away with zero points?
Florida and USC are beneficiaries of having played 11 games to their opponents' 10. This is right and proper for my system: you should get an advantage for playing more games. That said, USC looked good against 59th ranked Cal.
Oregon looked very good, totally unstressed. They may be better than we all think.
OU played a very sloppy 1st half, and then actually played defense in the second half as Jalen Hurts put the team on his back and carried them to a win. Baylor folded like they had seven-deuce off suit.
Minnesota fell victim to the Iowa curse: the Hawkeyes can't beat the teams they're supposed to, but they'll beat that team trying to make the playoff!
#5: Ohio State
Is it possible to have a "bad" win? If so, OSU had one when they phoned it in at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are ranked 105th, are 2-7, and just do not have any sort of resume that adds to yours if you beat them. So yes, OSU won, but the teams around them either beat better teams, or in the case of LSU beat a lower ranked team but had enough of a lead not to be threatened. I expect that will change next week if the Buckeyes beat Penn State.
#4: UGA
I can't really call Auburn a "signature" win, but it was certainly a good one. The Tigers were #15 and Georgia simply handled them.
UGA's D is #6 in yds/game, #6 in yds/play, and #2 in pts/game, behind only Ohio State.
With this win, the Bulldogs win the SEC East and get to face probably LSU for an opportunity to play for the CFP championship.
#3: Penn State
I know, this one seems odd. But we have to keep in mind the theory behind the rankings: no "eye test" and who you beat and who they beat matters; there is no transitive property in CFB.
PSU has beaten #16 Iowa, #12 UM, #49 Mich St, and #55 Indiana. Those teams have beaten some other pretty good teams. And while the Nittany Lions didn't look especially awesome on Saturday, it's possible that UI is better than they currently rank.
#2: Clemson
The teams Clemson has played are not great. But, they are not as awful as many in the press have claimed. The Tigers' 2nd level points are among the best, though they are certainly benefitting from having already played 11 games to most others' 10.
As questionable as they looked earlier, it seems that Swinney has them firing on all cylinders now. The Clemson D is #2 in yds/game and #3 in pts/game (behind UGA and OSU), and Lawrence appears to have shaken off his case of sophomore slump.
Clemson looks for real.
#1: LSU
LSU colors fly from the page for one more week at least as Jeaux Burreaux did his thing one more time. I didn't tune in until later and I was surprised to see Ole Miss hanging around. The I saw a true rarity this season: a Burrow pick. Yes, he was hit as he threw, but to be honest he was really trying to thread a needle on that one and I don't think it's a completion regardless. Beyond that?
489 yds
5 TD
2 INT (!!!)
203 passer rtg <- ridiculous
So, the question is: how long Joe carry the team? Because their D is 44th pts/game and 51st in yds/game. And we all know that defense wins championships.
But the Tigers stay on top for one more week regardless. Geaux Jeaux!
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