Remove the Homer Glasses

I am not at all convinced that USC is a worse team than Alabama this season. There, I said it.

Every major metric shows Bama well ahead of USC.

Bama is 10-1 to USC 8-4.

Offense?

Team Offense Table

				Passing					Rushing				Total Offense			First Downs				Penalties		Turnovers
Rk	School	G	Pts	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	Pass	Rush	Pen	Tot	No.	Yds	Fum	Int	Tot
2	Alabama	11	48.5	22.3	31.1	71.6	344.3	3.8	33.2	169.3	5.1	2.2	64.3	513.5	8.0	13.4	9.6	1.6	24.5	7.0	66.7	0.4	0.4	0.7
36	USC	12	33.2	27.6	38.8	71.0	335.9	2.8	30.8	127.5	4.1	1.4	69.7	463.4	6.7	14.1	7.3	2.0	23.4	7.3	73.3	0.8	1.2	1.9

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 11/25/2019.

How about defense (keeping in mind Bama was 43rd on Friday before playing that powerhouse Western Carolina)?

Team Defense Table

				Passing					Rushing				Total Offense			First Downs				Penalties		Turnovers
Rk	School	G	Pts	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	Pass	Rush	Pen	Tot	No.	Yds	Fum	Int	TO
10	Alabama	11	16.2	18.0	31.1	57.9	184.4	1.2	35.2	131.3	3.7	0.6	66.3	315.6	4.8	9.2	6.7	2.3	18.3	5.4	46.1	0.9	1.4	2.3
67	USC	12	27.8	21.8	35.9	60.8	248.6	1.8	36.3	166.7	4.6	1.3	72.3	415.3	5.7	10.8	9.7	2.7	23.1	8.2	68.5	0.6	0.8	1.3

Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 11/25/2019.

There is literally no obvious reason why Ray's Rankings has USC above Bama. But, in a previous post I explained exactly how the opponents' quality and hidden (or at least hard to parse) opponents' opponents quality can make up the differences.

I guess the pic is a little hard to see, sorry about that. For a moment, simply ignore my rankings and focus on RPI and SoS which is based on RPI and is essentially the same SoS the BCS used.

RPI calc: (W%+(OW%x2)+OOW%)

SoS calc: ((OW%x2)+OOW%)/3

The overall RPI is better for Bama. The Tide's massive lead in W% can't be made up. But when you play teams whose winning percentage is south of 50% (0.473), it's easier for your winning percentage to be stellar. It's also much easier to pad your stats.

SoS favors USC. A lot. The Trojans' OW% is pushing 60% (0.565), and it shows in their record.

Now, we all know that RPI is not the best metric, but it is a very good one if all we care about is W/L. Which, of course, we don't. Firstly, RPI would treat a win over Western Carolina the same as a win over Auburn if both teams have the same record. It also treats P5 and G5 schools the same. Yet the probability of an FCS team beating a P5 team is pretty slim, and from what I've seen a G5 school has maybe a 20% chance against a P5 school. Should we treat wins over FCS and G5 schools the same as wins over P5 schools? My answer is "No."

Going back to yesterday's post, my system looks backwards. It does not consider how good a team might be. It measures the body of work up to this point. So far, USC has done more against tougher than Alabama.

I saw that the SEC is going to stop scheduling cupcakes (well, non-conference cupcakes) in November, starting next year. This is a great sign, though they're still stuck on 8 conference games while the B1G, Big 12, and Pac 12 play 9 (can't really take the ACC seriously right now).

And all I can say about Clemson is that their schedule is tougher than I would have ever guessed. Not to say that it's Michigan State (1) or Penn State (3) strong, but it's pretty average.

Anyway, I know that the homer glasses are thick on all of us. I look at the Buckeyes and I see a defense that can slow down Burrow (I doubt he can be stopped) and an offense that can score on UGA. The Penn State game wasn't that close (all their points were scored off of turnovers, PSU only had 99 yards rushing, Dobbins ran for 157 yards against the #4 rushing D). But if the Buckeyes lose on Saturday, they will drop. Probably not far based on the body of work so far, but most likely out of the top 4. And I will not lift a finger to help. The system scores it and I report it.