Ray's Rankings Top 25 Week 5

There is a reason I preach the "no voters, computer only" gospel. I've explained it more than enough times. If you're curious, I have a few blog posts that go into great detail. Suffice to say that voters are fickle and biased.

I say that as a reminder that people like RJ Young and Joel Klatt cannot be counted on to be objective, and that they tend to disregard things like SoS. We all do it. It's human nature to be biased. This is why I created my system: to remove the bias. Any changes I make to my algorithm affects all teams equally.

That said, this was a pretty exciting weekend of football! Let's start with a recap of my previews:

• Zona looked not awful for a little while. Just a little while. It was 19-24 at the end of 3.
  
• UGA had more TD's than Vandy had 1st downs.
• "Baylor gets up for big games, the Cyclones play down to their competition. Upset in the making?" Nailed it.
• OkSt over K-State. Yawn
•  MSU-Neb did not disappoint. The Huskers in the game all night, forcing OT.
• Rutgers held UM to 20 and lost by 7. That's a win for Schiano and the boys.
• UF got right back on track. Not sure I buy the 2QB system though.
• OU is not a top 10 team. Rattler was 26 of 36 with a TD and a pick. They needed a last second FG to beat #50 WVa.
• "I think Chip Kelly has them [UCLA] ready to play and we see that the Tree is still just 'ok'."  Nailed it again.
•  I didn't actually predict a Razorback win, but I think my feelings were clear lol!
• ND-Wisky were tied at the end of 3. Let's not lose sight of that fact. When the wheels come off of the Badgers, they come all the way off!

I also enjoyed the BC-Missou OT, but I somehow missed the BG over Minnesota upset. Ouch.

If I'm Ryan Day, I have a QB quandary. Kyle McCord was 13/18 for 319 yds and 2 TD to 1 INT. Only the 4th true freshman to start for OSU ever.

 So, after all the fallout from yesterday, where do we stand? Things certainly got weirder. I had to think about it, and the reason I keep being surprised is the 1st level point changes each week.

Now, I gave this more thought in regards to the FCS penalty. I've said a few times that playing an FCS school gives a team an unfair advantage over teams who do not. Pretty obvious. And I've said before that the penalty should be treating the game as a loss. For some reason it just today occurred to me that in my system a loss is just 0 pts, not -1 pts. Not sure how I missed that for so long? Anyway, I made the adjustment and here's what we have!

Top 25

It just gets weirder every week. I do think that changing the FCS wins to 0 and FCS losses to -1 makes more sense, and it gives more reasonable results that are in line with the design of the system, so we've got that going for us. 

Yes, UTSA is ranked higher than Oregon. Oregon played Stony Brook, so that's counted as a loss (UTSA played Lamar, so that's a push). Oregon's signature win is over OSU, ranked 46th currently. That Minnesota loss did them no favors, and we can clearly see the trickle up effects of downstream points. The Gophers lose, OSU's 1st, 2nd, and 3rd level scores are negatively affected, and that makes Oregon's points derived from the OSU win less valuable. 

As. It. Should. Be.

At the end of the day, UTSA has played better teams than Oregon has. 0.3 pt difference in 1st level points, and only a 0.0406 gap between the teams.

Look, we all know that UTSA is not a powerhouse. Most teams have played 4 games so far, so we're starting to get some usable data, but really we need more. As I've stated, 4 games is when we start to get enough data points for anything to make sense. Watch; in the next 2-3 weeks we'll see it all start to come together. For now, enjoy the chaos!

Ray's Week 4/5 Preview

I think last week made clear that I am incapable of predicting which games will be compelling and which will not. That said, I'm still going to talk about the games I think will be fun to watch for various reasons.

Zona @ Oregon: just curious to see if Arizona can recapture any of the upset spark from the past couple of seasons. Unfortunately, I will probably be asleep by the time it starts!

UGA @ Vandy: That D is too entertaining to miss! This should be like watching Bishop Sycamore get blasted by IMG.

Iowa State @ Baylor: Baylor gets up for big games, the Cyclones play down to their competition. Upset in the making?

K-State @ OK State: morbid curiosity, to be honest.

Nebraska @ MSU: The Spartans have looked pretty good. I want to see if the Huskers can build on a pretty solid performance at OU.

Rutgers @ UM: I'm wondering if Schiano has anything for 6-Callers-Ahead-of-Us-Jimmy?

Tennessee @ UF:  I keep thinking Tennessee has finally gotten over the hump, and they keep proving me wrong. They remind me of another UT. You know who I mean. And I'm curious to see if UF is maybe a little hungover from that ridiculous 2pt attempt last week.

WVa @ OU: I think it's safe to say that no one is impressed by OU's play so far this season. Well, except for AP voters who are too busy smelling their own flatulence to actually watch them play (bonus points if you get the reference). They barely escaped Tulane and Nebraska...at home. The only decent game they've played so far was against Western Carolina. No need to look it up, they're an FCS school with an overall record of 341-502-23 (.407). Spencer Rattler is 74 of 99 for 761yds and 7/2 TD/INT. However, if we take out the Western Carolina game, he is 54 of 73 for 518yds and 2/2 TD/INT in the 2 games vs FBS schools. Not impressive; not Heisman material. 

On the other hand, WVa looked pretty good last week, at least in the first half, and they did enough in the second half to hold off a pretty good VaTech. Yes, they Mountaineers stumbled out of the gate (though the Terps are looking decent so far) but seem to be on a small roll. The Sooner faithful should maybe be concerned that this is a home game?

UCLA @ Stanford: Gotta be honest; I'm not sold on Stanford yet. They got Helton fired, but that was coming anyway. And they beat one of the worst schools in FBS. I think that UCLA had a case of the 'Buckeyes' after beating LSU, only they didn't completely blown out by Iowa. Or Purdue. I think Chip Kelly has  them ready to play and we see that the Tree is still just 'ok'.

Texas A&M @ Arkansas: Possibly the most important game of the weekend, assuming no major upsets. The Razorbacks have been putting the spurs to her so far, scoring 123 points against all-FBS opponents (yes, Rice and Georgia Southern are FBS schools). It's easy to say that Texas isn't that great of a win, but the Longhorns have played way better than Arkansas over the last decade or so.

A&M has struggled, though. This is supposed to be a team that challenges Bama or Georgia and they needed a late score to down 1-2 Colorado. The Buffs, by the way, got shut out by Minnesota 30-0. So, which Aggie team shows up tomorrow? The CFP challenger from last season who thought they were more worthy than OSU, or the stumbling Aggs who were under 50% on completions vs the Buffs?

ND @ Wisky:  Well, I missed this one somehow even though I knew about it and it was on my mind. Not really sure what to make of either team, truly. ND escaped an historically awful FSU and G5 mid-packer Toledo, and really didn't impress vs Purdue, who out-gained the Irish.One thing ND will not do on Saturday is push the Wisky line around.

The Badgers looked half dead against PSU, and Mertz is sitting 0 TD to 2 INT after 2 games. I bet they're missing Coan about now. How they let him get away I'll never know. I mean, he's not Bryce Young or CJ Stroud, but he's better than Mertz. Wisconsin rolled up over 350 yds rushing vs Eastern Michigan, which isn't really saying much, but it shows the direction they're moving: same as always. Take a bunch of 3 star behemoths and teach them how to be NFL caliber linemen, then run behind them.

What games are you looking forward to?

Top 25 Week 3/4 (?) 2021

I'm calling this the "weekend of almost." So many games almost provided upsets that we all enjoy so much (and some actually did provide those upsets). 

So how do we feel about our teams this week? I expect that the Bama faithful have to be at least a little concerned. After all, Florida is not Georgia.

And what about Georgia? Look, I'm a little biased in my opinion here. JT Daniels is an alum of my high school, and yes I am pulling for him to have an amazing season, then get drafted in the top 5. Bryce Young is also from my high school, but he has 2 more years to dazzle us. So, JT: 23/31 for 303yds, 3TD/1INT. Yes, the one interception was a poor decision. Other than that he looked utterly in command. Why Smart put Stetson in at all is a mystery, let alone in the 1st quarter after JT drove them to TDs on their first 2 drives. Maybe not-so-Smart?

And I do not understand why the media constantly overlooks Daniels. Yes, he had a rough first season at USC, but he's the only true freshman ever to start the season for the Trojans. He still ended with a 128+ passer rating. And they completely ignore that he was the 3rd rated QB in the class of '18 behind only Sunshine and Fields (and only barely behind them). I don't know if they just feel that he hasn't lived up to his potential or what? I say he hasn't had a real chance to show what he can do. Ok, off my soapbox for now.

Georgia's defense? 96 rush yards allowed; 214 pass yards allowed and most of that in trash time. The 4th qtr TD was the first they allowed this season. I think they're for real.

Ok, done oozing over Georgia. Let's take a look at the new Top 25 and break down  their games this weekend. As per usual: no eye test, not voting, no feels. This is straight math, folks. And I have pulled out preseason and Massey's numbers; this is straight from my system alone.

25. SDSU - The Aztecs (interesting that no one seems to care if we name teams for other countries' native people) needed a little luck to beat a potentially underrated Utah, but they got the job done. They let the Utes back in the game in a very entertaining 4th qtr, then held on through 3 OTs. BTW, I do not like the new OT rules. Yet. It could grow on me.

24. Miami (FL) - I was scratching my head over this one. Still sorta am. One win vs a mediocre App State and got pounded by MSU. The algorithm moves in mysterious ways this early in the season.

23. Texas - Yes, I know. They are 2-1, though, and their 1st level points are not awful right now, and their 2nd and 3rd level are better than most. They beat Rice 58-0. Whoop de doo.

22. Minnesota - The GGs looked pretty good against OSU, and this week they beat up on a Colorado team that put the fear of the buffalo into TAMU. 

21. Maryland - I don't care what anyone says, I love the state flag helmets these guys wear! The Terps scored twice in the last 2:13 to pull out the win over Illinois, and that's what winners do. Little Tagovailoa is pretty darn good.

20. Miss St - The Bulldogs lost in our first "almost" game. Leach's team almost doubled Memphis' total yardage, and lost on a failed 2pt conversion at the end. Not sure how long an SEC school will put up with that.

19. Florida - "Almost" game #2. To be honest, I didn't watch much of this game after the 1st quarter and so I'm not sure if Bama just has no running game or the Gators have a great rushing D? Anyway, that 2pt attempt at the end looked like Jone had never run the read option in his life. Great comeback that fell just short.

18. USC - Another game that I stopped watching at halftime (I really need to stop doing that). It really looked like Wazzu had the Trojans covered, and with the new coach and back up QB I did not expect much from USC. I was way wrong!

17. Oregon - Yes, the Ducks are 3-0. They are also a victim of the system. I don't know how else to say it: don't schedule FCS schools! They beat Stonybrook. So what. All they had to do is not lose. Lose one point, do not pass Go, do not collect $200.

16. Stanford - the Tree is here because they beat USC. Beating Vandy this weekend earned them 0.015pts. That's how bad Vandy is.

15. Notre Dame - The Irish are 3-0 against all FBS schools, but Florida State is historically bad this year and Toledo isn't exactly UM. When Purdue is your best win, expect to be lacking points on all 3 levels.

14. UCLA - The Bruins lost to what appears to be a very good Fresno State. It was a close score, but UCLA needed 20 4th quarter points to make it look that way. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they played Cal Poly and so lost a 1st level point. That keeps UCLA here and Fresno State at 41.

13. Iowa - The Hawkeyes beat Kent State this weekend. Not really much to say about that.

12. Alabama - The Tide beat a scrappy Florida; you've already read about that game. So where is their pain? Mercer. They played Mercer.

11. Ohio State - I haven't read anything about Kerry Coombs being fired. I wonder why not? Tulsa hung 500+ yards on the Buckeyes, almost exclusively through the air. And while the OSU secondary is young, they were playing very well. The scheme was completely wrong, and there was no pressure at all on Tulsa QB Brin. Ugly.

10. Texas A&M - So far, the Aggies have beaten a dismal Kent State, a dismal Colorado barely, and a pretty dismal New Mexico. Don't buy into the hype just yet. The Lobos were only able to muster 122 total yards, so it's possible that TAMU has a great D. It's also possible that New Mexico isn't very good.

9. Wisconsin - The algorithm strikes again! No idea how this happens. The Badgers are 1-1 with a win against Eastern Carolina. Thing is, that nets them decent 1st level points this early, and their 2nd and 3rd level points are better than most.

8. Army - Go Army, beat Navy! Or in this case, beat truly awful UConn. Army is benefiting from 3-0 vs all FBS schools that are better than the schools ND has played.

7. Pitt - Pitt lost to WMU, with a ton of points scored by both squads. This is another weird system result. They've beaten 2 mediocre teams, but both are FBS and so Pitt reaps the 1st level points benefit.

6. Va Tech - The Hoakies lost a very fun game to watch. WVa looked very good in the first half, then VaTech showed up for the second half. Unfortunately, that was just a bit too late. 700+ yards offense combined made for an enjoyable spectacle.

5. Arkansas - Sooie! The Razorbacks dropped the hammer on Georgia Southern on Saturday, to the tune of 633 yards of total offense. 3-0 vs all FBS gives Arky 2nd most 1st level points so far.

4. Penn State - I really had higher expectations for this game. And I certainly did not expect Clifford to outplay Nix, but here we are. Truthfully, I was a little bored, and I blame Auburn. Penn State looked good, and their D is at least some of the reason Bo Nix did not. But really his decision making is not where it should be 3 years in. Yes, new system and such, but he's supposed to be able to handle that.

3. North Carolina - 2nd weirdest ranking on here. Anyway, Sam Howell brought the pain against UVa: 14/21 for 307 and 5TDs to 1INT. The Heels also gave up 553yds passing to the Cavs. Not good, defense, not good.

2. Michigan - I think this is the weirdest of them all. That said, 3-0 vs all FBS schools, top marks for 1st level points, and a rock solid SRS so far all take UM to #2 in the system. Yeah, they beat Northern Illinois, but they beat them they way you're supposed to. They gave up only 208 yards while rolling up over 600 for themselves.

1. Georgia - They have beaten 3 mediocre FBS teams (yes, Clemson is mediocre so far), but that's enough. Their OW% is high, their OOW% is high, their SRS is high. And that D! So far, the Bulldog D has given up a total of 16 points...and they've scored 16 points! They seem to spend as much time in the backfield as the opposing QB. South Carolina was supposed to be a bit of a test. They were more like a speed-bump. 

So, there's my Top 25 for week 3/4. How do I compare to the AP biased voters, only 3 of which think UGA is #1?

	AP		RR	Diff
1	Alabama	SEC	12	11
2	Georgia	SEC	1	-1
3	Oregon	Pac-12	17	14
4	Oklahoma	Big 12	46	42
5	Iowa	Big Ten	13	8
6	Penn State	Big Ten	4	-2
7	Texas A&M	SEC	10	3
8	Cincinnati	American	52	44
9	Clemson	ACC	64	55
10	Ohio State	Big Ten	11	1
11	Florida	SEC	19	8
12	Notre Dame	Independent	15	3
13	Mississippi	SEC	38	25
14	Iowa State	Big 12	102	88
15	Brigham Young	Independent	30	15
16	Arkansas	SEC	5	-11
17	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	69	52
18	Wisconsin	Big Ten	9	-9
19	Michigan	Big Ten	2	-17
20	Michigan State	Big Ten	35	15
21	North Carolina	ACC	3	-18
22	Fresno State	Mountain West	41	19
23	Auburn	SEC	78	55
24	UCLA	Pac-12	14	-10
25	Kansas State	Big 12	32	7

We are very early in the season, so I expected this to look weird.

It does. I'm not even going to bother with the stats!

Hope you all have a great week!