Ray vs the World

"Welcome back, my friends
To the show that never ends
We're so glad you could attend
Come inside! Come inside!" ~ELP

 Once again, we enter the Twilight Zone of voter induced hysteria. No, I don't mean the last POTUS election. I mean AP, RJ Young, and Massey's Index!

Let's take a look at the AP, shall we?

Ray vs AP

Now, you Sooner fans should not be upset about what I'm about to do to your team, ok? This goes for MSU and Oregon fans, too. This is straight up math and facts.

	AP		RR	Diff
1	Georgia	SEC	2	1
2	Cincinnati	American	4	2
3	Alabama	SEC	6	3
4	Oklahoma	Big 12	13	9
5	Ohio State	Big Ten	11	6
6	Michigan	Big Ten	3	-3
7	Oregon	Pac-12	18	11
8	Michigan State	Big Ten	26	18
9	Iowa	Big Ten	8	-1
10	Mississippi	SEC	9	-1
11	Notre Dame	Independent	1	-10
12	Kentucky	SEC	25	13
13	Wake Forest	ACC	7	-6
14	Texas A&M	SEC	23	9
15	Oklahoma State	Big 12	5	-10
16	Baylor	Big 12	19	3
17	Pittsburgh	ACC	20	3
18	Auburn	SEC	28	10
19	Southern Methodist	American	49	30
20	Penn State	Big Ten	10	-10
21	San Diego State	Mountain West	24	3
22	Iowa State	Big 12	30	8
23	Texas-San Antonio	C-USA	34	11
24	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	74	50
25	Brigham Young	Independent	14	-11

I feel the need to point out that the AP voters are a joke. Let's start with Oklahoma:

• Oklahoma's OW% is .380 (19-31). 
• Their total margin of victory (not including FCS WCU) is 61 points in 7 games (8.7 pts/gm).
• Take out TCU and it's 40 points in 6 games (6.7 pts/gm).
• They had to 
• hold off Tulane & Nebraska, 
• come back vs WVa, 
• hold off KState, 
• come back vs Texas & KSU.
  
• Their OOW% is .713, which means that the teams they've beaten have been beaten by everyone else, too. Self-evident, but I wanted to spell it out.
• OU's SoS is .491, good for 109th of 130.
• For reference, UTSA is also 8-0, their OW% is .531 and their OOW% is .542; their SoS is .534 for 74th of 130

This is the team the AP has 4th. So why is OU 4 while UTSA is 23? Pre. Season. Bias. OU started at 2. UTSA didn't. And while UTSA certainly faced smaller schools and probably deserves the lower rank (I have them at 34, as you can see), no way does OU deserve to be 4.

What about Oregon?

• OW% .500, OOW% .538, SoS .513 for 95th of 130
• Their OSU win accounts for opponent wins to one loss, so without OSU 
• the OW% is .432, 
• OOW% .537, 
• SoS .467 for 120th or 130

In other words, Oregon is riding a single victory right now, as most of their others are against sub-par teams.

Michigan State?

• OW% .395, OOW% .679, SoS .490 for 113th of 130.
• The team they struggled to put away 20-15 lost to Ohio State 54-7. At home. 

But the voters of the AP have MSU only 3 spots behind OSU. 

So let's look at OSU, who the AP has at 5. 

• OW% .500, OOW% .586, SoS .529 for 81st of 130
• How about if they beat Oregon? 
•  OW% .480, OOW% .607, SoS .522 for 85th of 130
• Only moves them up to 7 for me

There is literally no case you can make that voters "know better." They clearly do not. I get that the AP is trying to 1) stay relevant in the Bill James era, and 2) give us what they think are "what if" ranks. Even those aren't very good mainly because they are self-fulfilling. And how about that clear SEC bias?

• Alabama drops from 1 to 5 after losing to a team the AP thought did not deserve a top 25 ranking
• Ohio State drops from 3 to 9 after losing to a team the AP deemed worthy of being ranked 12
• More relevant, Iowa dropped from 2 to 11 after losing to an unworthy team
• Penn State dropped from 7 to 20 after losing to another of the unworthy
  

In the weeks that followed

• Alabama dropped to 5, then went to 4 then 3
• OSU dropped to 9, then went 10, 11, 7, 6, 5, 5
• Iowa dropped to 11 and jumped to 9 this week

But hey, no bias, right?

Mean	5.56
Variance	177.34
SD	13.32
SEC	5.83
Big Ten	2.00
Pac-12	11.00
Big 12	2.50
ACC	-1.50
American	16.00
Mountain West	3.00

SEC, Pac12, and AAC are all heavily over-ranked. The mean difference is only 5.5, but that SD!

Massey's Composite

I'm a huge fan of Ken Massey. What I do here is purely for my enjoyment, as I think a composite system is a spectacular way to look at teams who almost never play each other. The only thing I might change would be to exclude systems that seek to emulate voters. Shouldn't be hard to find those: just perform a basic variance check against the AP like I did above and eliminate any that are too close!

	Massey's		RR	Diff
1	Georgia	SEC	2	1
2	Michigan	Big Ten	3	1
3	Alabama	SEC	6	3
4	Cincinnati	American	4	0
5	Ohio State	Big Ten	11	6
6	Oklahoma	Big 12	13	7
7	Iowa	Big Ten	8	1
8	Notre Dame	Independent	1	-7
9	Mississippi	SEC	9	0
10	Oklahoma State	Big 12	5	-5
11	Wake Forest	ACC	7	-4
12	Michigan State	Big Ten	26	14
13	Iowa State	Big 12	30	17
14	Kentucky	SEC	25	11
15	Baylor	Big 12	19	4
16	Pittsburgh	ACC	20	4
17	Penn State	Big Ten	10	-7
18	Texas A&M	SEC	23	5
19	Oregon	Pac-12	18	-1
20	Auburn	SEC	28	8
21	Wisconsin	Big Ten	12	-9
22	UTSA	C-USA	35	13
23	San Diego State	Mtn West	24	1
24	Texas	Big 12	34	10
25	Virginia	ACC	15	-10

I look at these and think that we're not so far off from a truly excellent system.

Mean	2.52
Variance	52.34
SD	7.23
SEC	4.67
Big Ten	1.00
Pac-12	-1.00
Big 12	6.60
ACC	-3.33
American	0.00
Mountain West	1.00

The mean and SD are half of what they are with just the AP (which is a component of Massey's system). Now it's the SEC and Big12 over-ranked, and the ACC under-ranked.

Transitive Property

Had another guy on Facebook tell me that my algorithm sucks because I have ND over Cincy and they beat ND. 

In a world of perfect competition (which your Econ teacher should have explained to you is a fantasy), Cincy would be ranked above the Irish. It's difficult for me to have that conversation with the uninitiated, as they simply do not understand that who you beat matters, and that one great win does not offset beating a bunch of inferior teams (yes, I'm looking at you, Sooners - and you still do not have a great win).

Let's take a look and break it down:

Notre Dame		Cincinnati
FSU	0.4154	MIAMI (OH)	0.5000
TOLEDO	0.5538	INDIANA	0.2077
PURDUE	0.8692	ND	0.9923
WISC	0.9077	TEMPLE	0.3308
VATECH	0.5231	UCF	0.7077
USC	0.4538	NAVY	0.3846
Sum	3.7231	Sum	3.1231
Avg	0.6205	Avg	0.5205

Both teams have 6 wins against FBS schools. Cincy has a win vs FCS Murray St that we do not count.

ND has beaten 6 teams with .6205 average 1st level points, while the Manbearpigs have beaten 6 teams with an average of .5205 1st level points including Notre Dame. It's not about the one game, it's about the body of work. Isn't that what the talking heads preach right up until they say stupid things like "beat x ranked teams" and "eye test?" It's not that complicated, but you have to understand the method and then agree that all teams should be treated equally. How often do you see or hear about SEC or B1G bias? I mean, outside of here. 

All. The. Time.

So here's a proven way to eliminate that, and the results we get are legitimate no matter what your gut tells you because this is not a predictor! My system is not telling you that ND beats Cincy if they play again. It is telling you that the Irish have a better body of work even with the loss.

I guess what you really have to accept (and we can see how well this is going with the whole vaccine thing) is that what you "know" ain't necessarily so!

Thanks for reading!

Ray

Top 25 Week 9

So, we had even more interesting outcomes in the top 10 this weekend. I'm hard pressed to remember a season where this many top teams are losing to unranked opponents.

As for the games I mentioned on Friday:

• ND-USC went about as expected. And it paid off, too. You'll see.
• SDSU-AF was interesting. It looked like an SDSU blowout, but AF made a game of it and played tough.
• Pitt-Clemson was a disaster for the Tigers. I'm even more convinced that Swinney can't develop DJ.
• Ole Miss-LSU also went as expected. Kiffin is doing well!
• Michigan-Northwestern was fun for about half a quarter. Given OSU's difficulties stopping the run, I foresee an interesting game in Nov
• UCLA-Oregon was very up and down for me. It looked like an easy walk for Oregon, then UCLA got it in gear only to lose Thompson-Robinson when they needed him most.
• Iowa State-Oklahoma State was a nice bit of vindication, eh? Hall didn't get much going, but the Cyclones stayed true to form.

SoS

Anyway, let's talk about strength of schedule. 

The SoS method I use is basically the same as the old BCS formula:

(Opponents' win % x 2) + (Opponents opponents' win %) 

3

I have toyed with the idea of adding another layer. It would be pretty simple, but I don't know if it adds value. What would the proper ratio be? If OW% is worth twice OOW%, is OOW% worth twice OOOW%? I just don't really see any advantage.

I did go looking for other methods of figuring SoS, but almost every one requires incorporation of scores that are handled through an iterative function similar to SRS, (and I already have SRS), and relative rankings. Again, I already have this, just as separate numbers. There is one that only seems to require rankings or ratings, but truthfully I'm happy enough with the old BCS method. It's simple and to the point, so we'll leave it for now. I may add that 3rd layer next season just to see where we land.

Why go into all that if there's no real change coming? Well, when you see this week's rankings you're going do what I did and question the whole thing, though to be fair most of you question the whole thing anyway. 

Top 25

25. Kentucky (prev 18) 6-1 DNP

24. SDSU (prev unranked) 7-0 Beat Air Force 20-14. The Aztecs suffer from playing terrible teams. Even with 6-2 Air Force, SDSU's OW% is .391, or a collective 18-28. Takes a long time to gain enough points when your opponents don't have any.

23.Texas A&M (prev unranked) 6-2 Beat South Carolina 44-14. The Aggies would be higher if their OW% was better, but if you remove Bama, their opponents are 25-29. Not good. Still, they are only 0.0009 behind 22

22. North Carolina (prev unranked) 4-3 DNP but the teams they have beaten are winning again, especially UVA and Miami (FL), and that raises their 1st level points.

21. Air Force (prev 15) 6-2 Lost to SDSU 14-20. The Falcons still have a good enough SoS to hold on to the top 25. Their OW% is .540. They just don't have the talent to hang with schools with lower acceptance standards.

20. Pitt (prev 17) 6-1 Beat Clemson 27-17. Pitt looked good and Clemson looked bad. Soft SoS doesn't help the Panthers here, but that's how it goes.

19. Baylor (prev 22) 6-1 DNP. Similar to UNC, the Iowa State and BYU wins helped elevate them after their wins this weekend.

18. Oregon (prev 25) 6-1 Beat UCLA 34-31. The Ducks are still hurting on SoS, but this win certainly helps! Still, they need to win out to have a better chance for a good seed in our phantom playoff selection.

17. Purdue (prev 16) 4-3 Lost to an improving Wisconsin 13-30. The Boilermakers benefit from an OW% of .577, good for the 42nd best SoS

16. Minnesota (prev unranked) 5-2 Beat Maryland 34-16. Welcome back, Gophers. You know who else really benefits from UMinn winning more? Ohio State.

15. Virginia (prev unranked) 6-2 Beat GT 48-40. Talk about flying under the radar! Their OW% is .540, their OOW% is .606, SoS 49th. 

14. BYU (prev 14) 6-2 Beat Washington St 21-19. BYU just keeps hanging around waiting for teams in front of them to stumble. 

13. Oklahoma (prev 9) 8-0 Beat a plucky KU 35-23. The game was closer than that, for sure. The really messed up part for OU? The Jayhawks are worth 0 1st level points. It may as well have been a loss, hence the 4 place drop. The Sooners' OW% is .380 (19-31). Their SoS is 109th!

12. Wisconsin (prev unranked) 4-3 Beat Purdue 30-13. I told you it would get weird. The Badgers' OW% is .667 (34-17); basically double Oklahoma's. Their SoS is 16th, by far the highest in the top 25.

11. Ohio State (prev 10) 6-1 Beat Indiana 1,394 to 2 (54-7). The Buckeyes suffer from the same fate as everyone else when the teams they beat keep losing. That said, I would really like to see this offense against UGA's D!

10. Penn State (prev 6) 5-2 Lost to Illinois 20-18 in 9 "overtimes." PSU's offense just is not good. The only way they save their season is to outscore OSU's top rated offense next week. Yeah, right.

9. Ole Miss (prev 12) 6-1 Beat LSU 31-17. Seems that Kiffin has everything moving in the right direction for a change. Nice.

8. Iowa (prev 8) 6-1 DNP

7. Wake Forest (prev 11) 7-0 Beat Army 70-56 in a game where both defenses decided to stay home. I mean, how do you rack up 418 yards rushing, score 56 points, and lose? Crazy game.

6. Alabama (prev 7) 7-1 Beat Tennessee 52-24. Looks like the media has decided to hand the Heisman to Bryce Young after Rattler very politely declined. Sure wish they'd wait until the end of the season, and use measurable performance numbers. Beating up on bad teams should not help your cause.

5. Oklahoma State (prev 2) 6-1 Lost to Iowa State 24-21. My upset came through! Still, OkSt has a .595 OW% and their SoS is 23rd.

4. Cincinnati (prev 5) 7-0 Beat Navy 27-20. Game wasn't quite that close, but you have to be careful playing triple option teams as disciplined as the service academies. Most "normal" teams are glad to escape with a W.

3. Michigan (prev 3) 7-0 Beat Northwestern 33-7. I'm curious to see if this style of Harbaugh football can keep up with the ridiculous number of weapons OSU has?

2. Georgia (prev 1) 7-0 DNP Score dropped from last week, so someone lost that hurt them. Clemson, anyone?

1. Notre Dame (prev 3) 6-1 Beat USC 31-16. The Trojans aren't exactly good, sure. Of much greater importance are the victories over FSU (won), Toledo (won), and Wisconsin (won). Add in the USC points and here we are.

I hope you are enjoying this season as much as I am!

Main page here.

Week 9 Preview

Honestly, it looks like a pretty boring weekend. We have zero top 25 match-ups. Still, there may be some compelling football! We can hope!

Let's look at some interesting longshots, shall we?

#4 Notre Dame vs #59 USC: I want to tell you a story about this game. It's a bit long, and I don't know how well it translates to print, but what the heck.

In 1986 I was a junior at Mater Dei high school (yes, that Mater Dei). This was 2 years before Rollinson took over, but he was already a teacher there. He was also a running back at USC, though he only played during the 1969 season and not much at that. Still, he was and is a huge USC fan. Anyway, on the Friday before the ND-USC game he regaled us with stories of the rivalry, and of traveling to South Bend and sitting in the visitor locker-room while the early crowd chanted "Gooooo Irish...beeeeaaat Trojans" over and over and it echoed throughout the stadium. Needless to say we didn't get much work done that day.

On Saturday, 1st year HC Lou Holtz led his team back from a 37-20 4th quarter deficit (with the help of some questionable officiating) to win 38-37 on a last second field goal.

You can imagine Coach's demeanor on Monday morning. We were instructed to stick our noses in our books and that was that. He looked ready to explode, and I just could not help myself. After everyone had settled down and gotten quiet, I chanted "Gooooo Irish.." and to my everlasting delight, the rest of the class responded with "...beeeeaaat Trojans." I thought Rollo was going to have an aneurysm.

That's my ND-USC story. Hope you got a chuckle.

#14 Air Force vs #44 SDSU: Funny to me how the voters have this one reversed. AF has better 1st, 2nd, and 3rd level points, and while neither team has run the gauntlet, AF definitely has the better SoS.

#18 Pitt vs #31 Clemson: I keep waiting for Swinney to figure out how to make DJ successful. The kid has the arm and the smarts, so what's happening over there? this is an important game for both teams; I think the reasons are obvious.

#12 Ole Miss vs #34 LSU: Not to be one of "those guys," but Coach O has been a bit of a disappointment outside of the Burrow era. That said, he and Kiffin have a history together and it could be an interesting game.

#3 Michigan vs #80 Northwestern: Fitz is having a tough year, no question. 3-3 against the 107th ranked SoS is not good. UM, on the other hand, has beaten everyone they should even though they've struggled in the 2nd half. That's pretty typical for Harbaugh, though. The real question is: which Northwestern shows up?

#67 Iowa State vs #2 Oklahoma State: I keep saying it. The Cyclones play up and down to their competition. Hall will need a monster game to help them beat the Cowboys. This is my top upset watch.

#33 UCLA vs #26 Oregon: Another of those "which team shows up" games. Will we see the Bruins who beat LSU like my mom beat me when I mouthed off? Or will we see the UCLA that laid that turd against Arizona State? Oregon has looked pedestrian, even when they beat OSU week 2. Kelly vs Cristobal could be the first CFB game to have an over/under closer to 200 than 100 (kidding - I think it's about 60 right now, but that feels low).

Anyway, I hope we all have a great and safe weekend!

Ray