So, we had even more interesting outcomes in the top 10 this weekend. I'm hard pressed to remember a season where this many top teams are losing to unranked opponents.
As for the games I mentioned on Friday:
- ND-USC went about as expected. And it paid off, too. You'll see.
- SDSU-AF was interesting. It looked like an SDSU blowout, but AF made a game of it and played tough.
- Pitt-Clemson was a disaster for the Tigers. I'm even more convinced that Swinney can't develop DJ.
- Ole Miss-LSU also went as expected. Kiffin is doing well!
- Michigan-Northwestern was fun for about half a quarter. Given OSU's difficulties stopping the run, I foresee an interesting game in Nov
- UCLA-Oregon was very up and down for me. It looked like an easy walk for Oregon, then UCLA got it in gear only to lose Thompson-Robinson when they needed him most.
- Iowa State-Oklahoma State was a nice bit of vindication, eh? Hall didn't get much going, but the Cyclones stayed true to form.
SoS
Anyway, let's talk about strength of schedule.
The SoS method I use is basically the same as the old BCS formula:
I have toyed with the idea of adding another layer. It would be pretty simple, but I don't know if it adds value. What would the proper ratio be? If OW% is worth twice OOW%, is OOW% worth twice OOOW%? I just don't really see any advantage.
I did go looking for other methods of figuring SoS, but almost every one requires incorporation of scores that are handled through an iterative function similar to SRS, (and I already have SRS), and relative rankings. Again, I already have this, just as separate numbers. There is one that only seems to require rankings or ratings, but truthfully I'm happy enough with the old BCS method. It's simple and to the point, so we'll leave it for now. I may add that 3rd layer next season just to see where we land.
Why go into all that if there's no real change coming? Well, when you see this week's rankings you're going do what I did and question the whole thing, though to be fair most of you question the whole thing anyway.
Top 25
25. Kentucky (prev 18) 6-1 DNP
24. SDSU (prev unranked) 7-0 Beat Air Force 20-14. The Aztecs suffer from playing terrible teams. Even with 6-2 Air Force, SDSU's OW% is .391, or a collective 18-28. Takes a long time to gain enough points when your opponents don't have any.
23.Texas A&M (prev unranked) 6-2 Beat South Carolina 44-14. The Aggies would be higher if their OW% was better, but if you remove Bama, their opponents are 25-29. Not good. Still, they are only 0.0009 behind 22
22. North Carolina (prev unranked) 4-3 DNP but the teams they have beaten are winning again, especially UVA and Miami (FL), and that raises their 1st level points.
21. Air Force (prev 15) 6-2 Lost to SDSU 14-20. The Falcons still have a good enough SoS to hold on to the top 25. Their OW% is .540. They just don't have the talent to hang with schools with lower acceptance standards.
20. Pitt (prev 17) 6-1 Beat Clemson 27-17. Pitt looked good and Clemson looked bad. Soft SoS doesn't help the Panthers here, but that's how it goes.
19. Baylor (prev 22) 6-1 DNP. Similar to UNC, the Iowa State and BYU wins helped elevate them after their wins this weekend.
18. Oregon (prev 25) 6-1 Beat UCLA 34-31. The Ducks are still hurting on SoS, but this win certainly helps! Still, they need to win out to have a better chance for a good seed in our phantom playoff selection.
17. Purdue (prev 16) 4-3 Lost to an improving Wisconsin 13-30. The Boilermakers benefit from an OW% of .577, good for the 42nd best SoS
16. Minnesota (prev unranked) 5-2 Beat Maryland 34-16. Welcome back, Gophers. You know who else really benefits from UMinn winning more? Ohio State.
15. Virginia (prev unranked) 6-2 Beat GT 48-40. Talk about flying under the radar! Their OW% is .540, their OOW% is .606, SoS 49th.
14. BYU (prev 14) 6-2 Beat Washington St 21-19. BYU just keeps hanging around waiting for teams in front of them to stumble.
13. Oklahoma (prev 9) 8-0 Beat a plucky KU 35-23. The game was closer than that, for sure. The really messed up part for OU? The Jayhawks are worth 0 1st level points. It may as well have been a loss, hence the 4 place drop. The Sooners' OW% is .380 (19-31). Their SoS is 109th!
12. Wisconsin (prev unranked) 4-3 Beat Purdue 30-13. I told you it would get weird. The Badgers' OW% is .667 (34-17); basically double Oklahoma's. Their SoS is 16th, by far the highest in the top 25.
11. Ohio State (prev 10) 6-1 Beat Indiana 1,394 to 2 (54-7). The Buckeyes suffer from the same fate as everyone else when the teams they beat keep losing. That said, I would really like to see this offense against UGA's D!
10. Penn State (prev 6) 5-2 Lost to Illinois 20-18 in 9 "overtimes." PSU's offense just is not good. The only way they save their season is to outscore OSU's top rated offense next week. Yeah, right.
9. Ole Miss (prev 12) 6-1 Beat LSU 31-17. Seems that Kiffin has everything moving in the right direction for a change. Nice.
8. Iowa (prev 8) 6-1 DNP
7. Wake Forest (prev 11) 7-0 Beat Army 70-56 in a game where both defenses decided to stay home. I mean, how do you rack up 418 yards rushing, score 56 points, and lose? Crazy game.
6. Alabama (prev 7) 7-1 Beat Tennessee 52-24. Looks like the media has decided to hand the Heisman to Bryce Young after Rattler very politely declined. Sure wish they'd wait until the end of the season, and use measurable performance numbers. Beating up on bad teams should not help your cause.
5. Oklahoma State (prev 2) 6-1 Lost to Iowa State 24-21. My upset came through! Still, OkSt has a .595 OW% and their SoS is 23rd.
4. Cincinnati (prev 5) 7-0 Beat Navy 27-20. Game wasn't quite that close, but you have to be careful playing triple option teams as disciplined as the service academies. Most "normal" teams are glad to escape with a W.
3. Michigan (prev 3) 7-0 Beat Northwestern 33-7. I'm curious to see if this style of Harbaugh football can keep up with the ridiculous number of weapons OSU has?
2. Georgia (prev 1) 7-0 DNP Score dropped from last week, so someone lost that hurt them. Clemson, anyone?
1. Notre Dame (prev 3) 6-1 Beat USC 31-16. The Trojans aren't exactly good, sure. Of much greater importance are the victories over FSU (won), Toledo (won), and Wisconsin (won). Add in the USC points and here we are.
I hope you are enjoying this season as much as I am!
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