Finale

 Not too often we get the upsets we saw on Championship Saturday. Emotionally I'm pleased because the Buckeyes are going to the playoff...er, invitational. Logically I question the Committee's thought processes. 

I stayed up late to watch USC and it was worth it. Caleb Williams is my Heisman pick. He lost, but he's clearly the league MVP. And he showed a lot of heart.

I saw the last 2 minutes of TCU-KState on my phone at work. Wish I could have watched it all. 

Saw a lot of Clemson and Michigan. Still convinced that Swinney cannot develop a QB, but that freshman they have is legit. And it's funny: Urban Meyer built OSU into an SEC clone and then beat them about the head and shoulders with it, pulling B1G into the future. Harbaugh has created a modern Big 10 throwback scheme that has proved effective against OSU, but under Day not Meyer. So interesting.

Someone on Twitter mentioned that the current system is faulty mainly because we have sooo many teams with so few common opponents. Of course, that is precisely what my system addresses and why I believe that a system like mine is the best solution to selecting teams for an actual playoff. It truly is not about who we think might beat another team. It is 100% about who has put in the work to deserve a shot. Records are nice, and of course you have to win, but who you play or don't play and their downstream Ws and Ls matter more. 8 great wins are better than 11 meh wins. 

So, here is my final Top 25 of 2022. Keep in mind that I reward conference champs by doubling their win points from the championship game.

Top 25

#25 Penn State 10-2 Prev #19 Heading off to the Rose Bowl next. Fitting reward for James Franklin's 10-2 Nittany Lions. Their only 2 losses are to #6 and #14.

#24 South Carolina 8-4 Prev #25 Gator Bowl bound thanks to Spencer Rattler finding his mojo at the end of the season.

#23 Oregon State 9-3 Prev #23 What happens in the Las Vegas Bowl stays in the Las Vegas Bowl?

#22 Mississippi State 8-4 Prev #18 Speaking of Leach, I don't know what a ReliaQuest is, but they're hosting a bowl and invited the Bulldogs.

#21 Notre Dame 8-4 Prev #20 The Irish have seriously overachieved this season after a very rough start. They should be 10-2, but now they're off to the Gator Bowl

#20 Ole Miss 8-4 Prev #21 Lane Kiffin and the Rebs are heading to the TaxAct Texas Bowl being held in San Diego, CA. Bowls are weird now.

#19 UCLA 9-3 Prev #22 The Pac 12 had a great season and DTR and UCLA are rewarded with a trip to the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl(?). Shouldn't it be the Frosted Flakes Bowl?

#18 NC State 8-4 Prev #17 It's kinda weird to me for the Pack to be ranked ahead of the Heels, but here we are. NC State is off to the Duke's Mayo Bowl. No, I'm not kidding.

#17 Washington 10-2 Prev #16 So many surprises this season, and this may be #2 behind Tennessee. The Dawgs are heading to the Alamo Bowl.

#16 Texas Tech 7-5 Prev #14 The Red Raiders made things exciting at times and are heading to the TaxAct Bowl.

#15 Louisiana State 9-4 Prev #13 Ouch. UGA brought the pain against Brian Kelly and the Tigers. LSU is off to the Citrus Bowl.

#14 Ohio State 11-1 Prev #12 Yeah, the Buckeyes are off to the Peach Bowl. And truth be told, they have the capability on offense to destroy everyone. They just haven't done it. It's weird.

#13 Tulane 11-2 Prev ~ The Green Wave! What a crazy season! Tulane is off to a New Year's Six Cotton Bowl berth!

#12 Oregon 9-3 Prev #11 After a very up and down season, the Ducks are heading to the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl.

#11 Florida State 9-3 Prev #9 Another surprising team to me, the 'Noles just sort of quietly went about their business. They are off to the Cheez-It Bowl. 

#10 Southern California 11-2 Prev #8 I feel like we're a year away from Lincoln Riley putting it all together. He should be able to grabe some serious talent in So Cal. The Trojans go from the 4 seed to the Cotton Bowl

#9 Tennessee 10-2 Prev #7 The Vols are my #1 surprise team this season. Lots of fun to watch and true agents of chaos! They heading to the Orange Bowl.

#8 Alabama 10-2 Prev #5 I know that the algorithms have changed, but my Twitter feed is almost nothing but Bama fans bitching. Guys, you lost twice, you played Austin Peay in November, and you should have lost in Texas. Be happy you're in the Sugar Bowl and not the Tony the Tiger Bowl.

#7 Texas 8-4 Prev #4 Yeah, I know. Here's how it happened: 1st level points are good, top 50% of the top 25; 2nd level points are much better, almost double everyone behind them including Bama; SRS is good, top 1/3; third best SoS and OW%. Texas gets the Alamo Bowl.

#6 Michigan 13-0 Prev #10 Good win over Purdue in the usual UM manner: 2nd half steamroller. The Wolverines head to Arizona for the Fiesta Bowl as a reward for being 13-0 even with their pretty soft schedule.

#5 Utah 10-3 Prev #15 Boy did the Utes knock the stuffing out of the Trojans! Truly an impressive win! Rose Bowl for Utah!

#4 Clemson 11-2 Prev #6 Yeah, I get it. Sorry, but this is just how it works. Clemson played a decently tough schedule, and the conference championship game really helped them here. They get the Orange Bowl

#3 Texas Christian 12-1 Prev #1 So here's one that makes sens all around. The Horny Ones are off to the Fiesta Bowl and a date with destiny!

#2 Kansas State 10-3 Prev #3 Funny how these guys sneaked up on the voters when I've had them top 10 almost all season. Now they just have to prove it in the Sugar Bowl. 

#1 Georgia 13-0 Prev #2 No real surprise other than I thought for sure they'd score 80 points on Saturday! Georgia looking to defend their title in the Peach Bowl.

Ray's Playoff Picture

A 4 team is pretty obvious, so we can skip the details. I think the TCU-KState rematch is sort of interesting.

My 8 team works like this: P5 conference champs, top ranked G5 team, and then next 2 highest ranked at-large teams.

Ray's Elite 8

Georgia


Utah





Tulane


Michigan





Clemson


K State





TCU


Texas

This is much more the thing! We have classic match-ups as well as weird stuff. I like it!

Ray's Sweet 16

1Georgia


2K State
16Texas Tech


15LSU














8Alabama


7Texas
9Tennessee


10
USC
 














4Clemson


3TCU
13Tulane


14Ohio State














5Utah


6Michigan
12Oregon


11Florida State

This is what we need. Just this. 

I'm not going to get into the whole CFP and AP thing this week. I'll just post the comparisons and you can decide if voters are biased or not (hint: they are). Next week I'll post my bowl predictions, but this is the last week of my rankings this year. As I've explained in the past, bowl games are too unpredictable to place any real meaning on them other than bragging rights. Talk to you soon!

AP


AP
RRDiff
1GeorgiaSEC10
2MichiganBig Ten64
3Texas ChristianBig 1230
4Ohio StateBig Ten1410
5AlabamaSEC83
6TennesseeSEC93
7UtahPac-125-2
8Southern CaliforniaPac-12102
9Penn StateBig Ten2516
10ClemsonACC4-6
11Kansas StateBig 122-9
12WashingtonPac-12175
13Florida StateACC11-2
14TulaneAmerican13-1
15OregonPac-1212-3
16Louisiana StateSEC15-1
17Oregon StatePac-12236
18UCLAPac-12191
19Notre DameIndependent212
20South CarolinaSEC244
21TexasBig 127-14
22Texas-San AntonioC-USA7149
23TroySun Belt3512
24Mississippi StateSEC22-2
25North Carolina StateACC18-7

Mean2.80
Variance133.75
SD11.57


SEC1.17
Big Ten10.00
Pac-121.50
Big 12-7.67
ACC-5.00
American-1.00

CFP


CFI
RRDiff
1GeorgiaSEC10
2MichiganBig Ten64
3TCUBig 1230
4Ohio StateBig Ten1410
5AlabamaSEC83
6TennesseeSEC93
7ClemsonACC4-3
8UtahPac-125-3
9Kansas StateBig 122-7
10USCPac-12100
11Penn StateBig Ten2514
12WashingtonPac-12175
13Florida StateACC11-2
14Oregon StatePac-12239
15OregonPac-1212-3
16TulaneAmerican13-3
17LSUSEC15-2
18UCLAPac-12191
19South CarolinaSEC245
20TexasBig 127-13
21Notre DameIndependent210
22Mississippi StateSEC220
23NC StateACC18-5
24TroySun Belt3511
25UTSAC-USA7146

Mean2.800
Variance116.2
SD10.78


SEC1.50
Big Ten9.33
Pac-121.50
Big 12-6.67
ACC-3.33
American-3.00

 

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