Top 25 Week 8

I know I told someone about Purdue's defense. Can't remember if that was you guys or my son, but I told you! Look, there is only one B1G team built to dig itself out of a hole and that's OSU. Fight me.

Another rough weekend for some highly ranked teams, and that's what makes this sport great no matter how hard ESPN and Fox try to ruin it by pushing their narratives.

I'm thinking I need to go back to the reverse reveal so that I don't forget anyone, so here we go:

25. Oregon (prev 24) 5-1 Squeaked by a pretty bad Cal team 24-17. You may ask why Oregon is so low when they beat OSU in week 2. It's not week 2. Honestly, the OSU win is the only thing keeping them in the top 25. OSU is 5-1; the rest of the Ducks' opponents are 9-17 combined. Their opponents' opponents are 108-80, and 87-62 without OSU. Not awful but not great.

24. Arkansas (prev 15) 4-3 Lost to Auburn 38-23 in the 4th quarter. It was a pretty even game if you look at the stats, and really could have gone either way. The Piggies have lost 3 straight and have crashed back to earth. Still, they look better than they have in a long time.

23. Mississippi State (prev 17) 3-3 Lost to Alabama 49-9. The interesting part to me was the 1st quarter really. MissSt seemed to be able to move the ball well and just flopped at the important bits. They did sack Young a couple of times, but he just never seems flustered. Mature beyond his years.

22. Baylor (prev unranked) 6-1 Beat BYU 38-24. Baylor pretty much dominated this game in all aspects. The Bears have only lost to OkSt and would be ranked higher if they hadn't scheduled FCS Texas Southern in week 2.

21. Boise State (prev 16) 3-4 Lost to Air Force 24-17. My poor Broncos have no consistency. So why are they ranked over 6-1 Baylor? Quality of opponents and opponents' opponents. Boise's 3 wins earn them almost as many 1st level points as Baylor's 5 wins (no points for FCS, remember), and they have better 2nd and 3rd level points. SRS is pretty close, too.

20. Utah (prev 18) 4-2 Beat ASU 35-21. They really put the clamps on the Sun Devil offense in the 2nd half. So how do you win and drop 2 places? Easy: the teams you've beaten aren't very good and this weekend didn't help them.

19. Michigan State (prev unranked) 7-0 Beat a pesky Indiana in a sloppy 20-15 game. MSU's OW% is .385. That is the lowest by far of any team in my top 25. It's so bad that it ranks 119th of 130 in FBS. Their SoS is 155th. They're lucky to be here.

18. Kentucky (prev 13) 6-1 Lost to Georgia 30-13. So far the Wildcats are the only school to score 2 touchdowns against the Bulldog D. Of course the second one was in garbage time.

17. Pitt (prev 23) 5-1 Beat that weird Va Tech team 28-7. The Panthers outgained the Hokies 411-224, helped by VTs Burmeister only completing 34.4% of his passes. Not sure if that's a result of him being bad or Pitt's D playing well?

16. Purdue (prev unranked) 4-2 Beat Iowa 24-7. I really want to find where I mentioned the Boilermaker D. Anyway, Purdue didn't do anything special, they just wanted it more.

15. Air Force (prev 20) 6-1 Beat Boise State 24-17. So, I've been an AF fan since high school. I was in AFJROTC and we had a jog-a-thon (remember those?) on the day the great Fisher DeBerry lead his team to a victory over Notre Dame. We listened on the radio and loved every minute. It was heartbreaking when they lost to BYU in Provo while ranked 4th.

14. BYU (prev 11) 5-2 Lost to Baylor 38-24. Say what you will about BYU, they generally do not schedule soft. This time it bit them against the surging Bears.

13. Auburn (prev unranked) 5-2 Beat Arkansas 38-23. These are the kinds of moves that can make even me scratch my head. the Arkansas points help, and LSU beating Florida helped more (Auburn beat LSU 2 weeks ago).

12. Ole Miss (prev 14) 5-1 Beat Tennessee 31-26 in a pretty controversial ending, even before all the stuff got thrown onto the field. I haven't seen a good angle that shows he didn't get the 1st down. If you have a link, share! Kiffin and the Rebs have a shot at winning out depending on which A&M team shows up on Nov 13.

11. Wake Forest (prev 7) 6-0 DNP

10. Ohio State (prev 10) 5-1 DNP

9. Oklahoma (prev 6) 7-0 Beat TCU 52-31. OU has shown itself to be better under Caleb Williams than Spencer Rattler. So far, that is. That said, look at this: 

 8. Iowa (prev 3) 6-1 Lost to Purdue 24-7. You're going to need more than 273 yards of total offense and less than 4 turnovers if you're going to compete for a top spot. As OSU has found out a few times: you must win the games you're supposed to win. 

7. Alabama (prev 9 ) 6-1 Beat Miss State 49-9. You knew Saban would have the Tide fired up and here we are. To be honest, I think they should have pulled Young by the 3rd, but that's just me.

6. Penn State (prev 12) 5-1 DNP, but we need to talk about this. As weird as it seems, this is exactly how the system should work. The teams they beat won this weekend, so that makes those victories worth more 1st level points. PSU's OW% is .606, their OOW% is .656, and their SoS is 21st.

5. Cincinnati (prev 8) 6-0 Beat UCF 56-21. Honestly, there's not much more the Bearcats can do except beat the teams they're supposed to beat by the margin required. Will it be enough? You know how the AP is: can't even begin to consider SoS or anything that resembles a metric.

4. Notre Dame (prev 4) 5-1 DNP

3. Michigan (prev 2) 6-0 DNP

2. Oklahoma State (prev 5) Beat Texas 32-26. Stop me if you've heard this one: Texas leads a top team going into the 4th quarter and then just implodes! You have heard it? Really? OK. Did you know that Texas has been outscored 41-7 in the 4th quarter in their past 2 games? You did? Hmm. The Cowboys are heading for a major showdown Nov 27 if they and OU can keep focused. 

1. Georgia (prev 1) 7-0 Beat Kentucky 30-13. That D is special. They held a UK offense that had been averaging about 400 yds/gm to 243 yds. They only allowed 51 rushing yards. In giving up 2 TDs, they doubled the total number of TDs they'd given up for the season. And yes, I know the media is slobbering all over Bennett. All I can say to that is: how many more points do they score with JT?

Ray vs the AP

Here we go again. How does Bama lose to an unranked A&M and drop 4 while Iowa loses to unranked Purdue and drops 9? This right here is why human voters need to just plain go away. Ugh. 47 teams have now been ranked in the AP top 25 so far. Forty. Seven. If voters actually knew better than computer rankings, we should expect to see fewer teams making the AP poll, right? Yeah, right.

As usual, the Diff column is the ranking variance between my ranks and theirs. A positive number means the AP is ranked higher and a negative number means they are ranked lower than my system.

	AP		RR	Diff
1	Georgia	SEC	1	0
2	Cincinnati	American	5	3
3	Oklahoma	Big 12	9	6
4	Alabama	SEC	8	4
5	Ohio State	Big Ten	10	5
6	Michigan	Big Ten	3	-3
7	Penn State	Big Ten	6	-1
8	Oklahoma State	Big 12	2	-6
9	Michigan State	Big Ten	20	11
10	Oregon	Pac-12	25	15
11	Iowa	Big Ten	7	-4
12	Mississippi	SEC	12	0
13	Notre Dame	Independent	4	-9
14	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	69	55
15	Kentucky	SEC	18	3
16	Wake Forest	ACC	11	-5
17	Texas A&M	SEC	26	9
18	North Carolina State	ACC	29	11
19	Auburn	SEC	13	-6
20	Baylor	Big 12	22	2
21	Southern Methodist	American	47	26
22	San Diego State	Mountain West	43	21
23	Pittsburgh	ACC	17	-6
24	Texas-San Antonio	C-USA	41	17
25	Purdue	Big Ten	16	-9

This always makes me laugh (and cry a little, not gonna lie). It feels like any team ranked below the top 10 gets votes based on some agenda that is different for every voter. it's like they're thinking, "I got the top 5 or 6 in line with what the fans want, now I can have some fun!"

Mean	5.60
Variance	192.42
SD	13.87
SEC	1.83
Big Ten	-0.33
Pac-12	15.00
Big 12	0.67
ACC	0.00
American	14.50
Mountain West	21.00

As we can see, the mean difference is 5.6 spots. Considering the size of some of the variances, that is a surprisingly low number. Of course, the standard deviation explains that quite well. Think about that number: z=±1 encompasses 27.74 positions under the bell curve. That's a pretty big range!

Strangely enough, the SEC and B1G variances are pretty small overall. It's the Pac 12 that is way over ranked right now, and that is strictly because only Oregon is ranked.

Ray vs Massey's Composite

Unfortunately, Massey's Composite has only loaded 23 rankings so far, so my influence will be too large, but I don't want to wait until tomorrow.

	Massey's		RR	Diff
1	Georgia	SEC	1	0
2	Michigan	Big Ten	3	1
3	Cincinnati	American	5	2
4	Alabama	SEC	7	3
5	Oklahoma	Big 12	9	4
6	Ohio State	Big Ten	10	4
7	Iowa	Big Ten	8	1
8	Penn State	Big Ten	6	-2
9	Oklahoma State	Big 12	2	-7
10	Michigan State	Big Ten	20	10
11	Notre Dame	Independent	4	-7
12	Mississippi	SEC	12	0
13	Pittsburgh	ACC	17	4
14	Kentucky	SEC	18	4
15	Baylor	Big 12	22	7
16	Auburn	SEC	13	-3
17	Iowa State	Big 12	63	46
18	Wake Forest	ACC	11	-7
19	Texas	Big 12	33	14
20	Clemson	ACC	30	10
21	NC State	ACC	29	8
22	Florida	SEC	62	40
23	Texas A&M	SEC	26	3
24	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	69	45
25	Oregon	Pac-12	25	0

Now, to my eye this looks better than the AP stuff. It's not. 

Mean	7.32
Variance	222.06
SD	14.90
SEC	7.00
Big Ten	2.60
Pac-12	0.00
Big 12	13.20
ACC	3.75
American	2.00

The mean difference and SD are both bigger! I confess that I did not see that coming. This is yet another example of how trusting our eyes or trusting our "gut" will let us down in situations requiring analysis. As CFB requires analysis. 

Anyway, I hope you enjoyed the weekend! We'll talk again soon.

Latest Rankings Page

Top 25 Week 7

I think I'm done tweaking my system. I like what it's doing, the math is consistent, and I almost never get even close to a tie (of course, I'm very close this week with 19/20, but still). I still would really like to be able to subtract points based on ranking differentials, but Google sheets doesn't like it and I don't know how to code (I assume that a proper program could do this iterative stuff more easily, maybe). So, we're good for the foreseeable future.

Shall we discuss some football? Yet another great weekend of chaos! Gawd, I do love this sport!

Top Games

Can we start with #21 ASU over Stanford? Is the Cardinal just incapable of getting up for every game? Either they have a motivation (and thus coaching) issue, or the teams they've beaten just aren't that good. Conversely, the Sun Devils seem to be playing very well. I like it. Herm Edwards is building a solid program.

#8 Cincinnati stomped Temple. This was a more important game than it might seem. Granted, Temple isn't Iowa or Purdue, but big win hangovers are a thing (ask OSU) and Cincinnati could have fallen victim. Instead, they overcame their abysmal kicking game and crushed a team they were supposed to crush.

I probably watched too much of #16 Boise St beating #11 BYU. I've been a Broncos fan for many years, since before Peterson took over even. I'm always hopeful for them, even with Peterson gone. There was a lot of slop in this one, but Boise pulled it out at the end with a fairly convincing road win.

Can someone help me to understand going for 2 to win at the end of regulation? On the road? #14 Ole Miss escaped #15 Arkansas at home on a very questionable play call at the end, and it makes no sense. Arkansas won that game on paper, but paper doesn't play the game lol!

#4 Notre Dame has a QB problem. A last second field goal lifted them past VaTech on the road, and apparently they did not have Drew Pyne available. Neither team lit it up offensively, and that is why ND will likely struggle against a good P5 team. That said, a win is a win, and coming off the Cincy loss it would have been easy for the Irish to have a let-down.

#1 Georgia did their thing again, this time against a feisty but clearly over-matched Auburn. The Bulldog D has allowed exactly 2 touchdowns this season, and a total of 33 points overall. In 6 games. At this point, it almost doesn't matter who they've played: UGA is for real. They are allowing 1/4 of the points/game Bama allows. They are allowing less than half the points/game of the next best team (Cincy and Clemson, if you care). And they scored pretty easily even with Daniels still hurt.

#10 Ohio State is starting to look a little like Ohio State: a ton of offense, 5 sacks and 2 picks, including a pick-six, and a just plain dominant performance. Stroud looked very good, and while I still believe that McCord is a viable alternative for the Buckeyes, CJ is coming into his own. 

#6 Oklahoma took advantage of #19 Texas' implosion to win an exciting if somewhat disappointing Red River Showdown. "Disappointing," you ask? Yes. I just do not understand how Lincoln Riley can bench the Heisman Trophy winner? OK, enough with the Rattler grief! Sarkisian needs to learn how to build a defense, or hire the guy who can. That 4th quarter was embarrassing on both sides of the ball for the Longhorns. And even though they fell behind big in the 1st half, that was the best I've seen OU all year. Maybe they're legit without Rattler running the show.

#2 Michigan needed every thing they had to beat a pumped up Nebraska on the road. I don't know how much longer they will put up with Frost and his mediocre finishes in Lincoln, but the Huskers looked easily the equal of the Wolverines. If he can build on that attitude and effort, maybe they've reached a turning point? And Harbaugh's new build seems to be very resilient. Not sure how they'll do against a truly high powered offense, and we won't find out until the end of November. Anyway, this was an exciting game to watch!

#22 Texas A&M did a thing. The streaks they ended by beating #9 Alabama are numerous, but the biggest thing I took away from this game is that the Tide are vulnerable. Bryce Young did not look good except towards the end of the game when, for some reason, the Aggies stopped bringing pressure. Bama gave up only 379 yards but also scored 3 FGs instead of TDs. I don't know who Zach Calzada is, but he could be that missing piece of the puzzle for Jimbo Fisher!

Top 25

Well, as you should know by now, weekends of chaos usually do numbers on my rankings. That said, I still find some of the results surprising, especially this season with the added bonus of fluctuating victory points. So, without further ado, here you go:

What's is the most surprising thing you see here? Under normal circumstances I'd say Oklahoma State, but Wake Forest? Wake Forest. This is the perfect example of how downstream opponents matter, just like Notre Dame is a perfect example of scheduling tough.

Anyway, I hope you enjoyed the weekend! Talk to you soon.

 

Ray's Rankings Top 25 Week 6

I get that RJ Young is into histrionics to collect eyeballs. It's ok, but he clearly does not understand that there is no transitive property in college football! Holy crap! He's convinced that because Oregon beat OSU they should be ranked higher than OSU. Apparently forever, or at least for the rest of the season. Here's an image for RJ:

How did you feel about the chaos this weekend? Nothing better than AP top 10 teams losing or just getting wrecked! Of course, I don't feel so great when my highly ranked teams lose, but then I remind myself that 1) the algorithm doesn't care how I feel, and 2) my system does not attempt to predict.

#4 Arkansas at #2 Georgia - Georgia gave up a total of 162 yards and only threw the ball 11 times in an absolute beat down of the Razorbacks. And they did it without JT Daniels (who is starting to look a little fragile).

#28 Cincinnati at #6 Notre Dame - Lived up to the billing. The Bearcats played a solid game all around and just plain beat the Irish on all sides, all day. If USC doesn't offer Fickell a bajillion dollars, they are fools.

#10 Ole Miss at #3 Alabama - When I wondered if Kif was crazy enough to beat Saban, I did not expect what we got. How many failed 4th down conversions did Ole Miss have? 3? And most in the 1st half. Bryce Young looked good, and Matt Corral did too.

#14 Oregon at #58 Stanford - "Stanford has already wrecked one team's season. Will they do it again? I doubt it, but we need to be aware that the possibility exists." How'd I do?

#46 OSU at #26 Rutgers - Well, the Buckeyes pretty much stomped an exclamation point on that game. The D played much better, but still that D line is not getting home. This will be a problem for them later on.

#73 Baylor at #7 Oklahoma State - The Cowboys did what they needed to do in the manner that they needed to do it. 

#32 BC at #40 Clemson - Both teams looked pretty sloppy. BC can take some positives away in keeping up with the Clemson D. What confuses me is DJ. I expected him to be much better. He's flatfooted in the pocket and late to decide to throw. Can't figure out if he's overwhelmed by the system or what.

#78 ASU at #5 UCLA - Well, I sure missed on this one. I expected UCLA to get there and they just flopped. At home. Ugh. 

Kentucky over Florida - If you tell me you saw this coming, I'll call you a liar unless you're a UK alum. Wow.

Mississippi State over Texas A&M - "Anything by the water that's got cool-looking trees and boats." Mike Leach is a national treasure. Can we stop with the "Aggies are worthy" talk now?

Hawaii over Fresno State - Makes UCLA look even worse.

Chaos is Good

Topsy turvy weekends are fun for the voters and their supporters as they scramble to make excuses for bad selections. They're fun for me, too, but mostly because I can see my system working.

Now, I know I'll catch hell for UCLA. In fact, I already have. Here's the thing: the Bruins have the 5th best 1st level, best 2nd level, and 2nd best 3rd level points. They have played no FCS schools. And most importantly, my system rewards wins more than it penalizes losses. UCLA's wins have all been against teams who have performed well on average. The Stanford win over Oregon helped UCLA more than it helped Stanford (sorta).

Arkansas is in a similar situation to the Bruins: 11th best 1st level, 5th best 2nd level, and 10th best 3rd level points. It's only the SRS that keeps the Razorbacks ahead of UCLA. 

As strange as it looks, it is evidence that my system is working as it should.

Top 25 (go here to see all the scores that went into the rankings)

Have a great week!

Ray's Week 6 Preview

Howdy, folks! Ready for a fun weekend of college football? I know I am! This week we have a pretty good number of important games. The mid season run for Bama and Georgia obviously has CFP implications. A stumble here could cause grief down the road. The B1G doesn't seem to have a powerhouse this season unless it's UM. None of the others have impressed...yet. In the Big 12, someone has to step up and actually challenge OU. And in the Pac 12, the usual chaos has set in. If UCLA wins out and wins the conference championship, should they be in the CFP?

Tonight, we have Iowa v Maryland. I've got Iowa at #34, not #5. As you know, this is based on body of work, not what I or anyone else thinks they might be. The interest in this game to me is Maryland, whom I have at #11. Little Tag has thrown for more yards than Bryce Young, with 10 TDs to 1 INT. Why isn't he in the Heisman conversation?

 Big Saturday Games

 #4 Arkansas at #2 Georgia - Huge game with playoff consequences for both teams. Is UGA's D for real? Can the Razorbacks stop JT Daniels? This is where the rubber meets the road, especially for Georgia. I've been impressed with Arkansas so far, but I think the Bulldog D does it again. Besides, how can you argue with a defense that's scored as many points as it's given up?

#28 Cincinnati at #6 Notre Dame - I do not see how Cincy is favored here (and that may change by game time). I don't really know what to make of the Irish. They seem very capable of capitalizing on mistakes, but they haven't impressed on either side of the ball. The Bearcats haven't played anyone of note (Indiana is pretty awful so far). I love Luke Fickell, though. When prodded about the USC job, this was his take (after saying he has not talked to anyone): "...I also want to say that this is the greatest thing that can happen for us, because it’s a reflection of what these guys have done on the football field."

#10 Ole Miss at #3 Alabama - We are still waiting on someone from the Saban tree to actually beat Saban. Kiffin might just be crazy enough to pull it off. Corral is another guy coming out of So Cal in the class of 2018. Of course, he got wrecked by Daniels and MDHS in the playoffs, and Bryce is also an MDHS alum. That may or may not mean anything to either guy. We'll see I guess.

#14 Oregon at #58 Stanford - Stanford has already wrecked one team's season. Will they do it again? I doubt it, but we need to be aware that the possibility exists.

#46 OSU at #26 Rutgers - Just curious what Schiano has planned for his old team. Also kind of curious if OSU found their defense?

#73 Baylor at #7 Oklahoma State - One of these 2 teams may be the Big 12's onlyl hope of not sending Rattler to the playoff. I haven't had a chance to really watch either team much, but it seems Baylor is back to being scrappy instead of cocky.

#32 BC at #40 Clemson - Can Hafley put Clemson and Swinney out of their misery? Truly, I do not understand what is happening to DJ over there. He is supposed to be the equal (at least) of Bryce Young, and he's looked worse than Rattler. It seems that the Tiger D is still playing well even with a ton of injuries, but their offense has gone walkabout. BC still hasn't played anyone as good as Clemson, so this is a real test for the Eagles.

#78 ASU at #5 UCLA - ASU got whupped by BYU, but we've seen them be both bad and amazing in the same season. What can Herm Edwards bring to the Chip Kelly show? We shall see! UCLA needs to win convincingly, or at least not struggle too badly if they want to get into the conversation when we start talking CFP.

What games are you looking forward to?