Week 14 Top 25

OK, not really. But Rivalry Week lived up to the billing, for sure! Truthfully, I only watched like 3 games on Saturday: The Game, the Iron Bowl, and Bedlam. I did catch bits and pieces of other games, but these were most likely to impact the committee and my system, plus they are usually a lot of fun!

What was not fun for OSU was getting absolutely manhandled by the UM lines. I mean, that was embarrassing. UM beat the tar out of the Buckeyes on both sides of the ball all game long. Ugly loss for OSU, great win for UM.

Is Alabama a top 4 team? 4 OTs to beat an Auburn team playing a freshman backup QB with basically one leg. No, I don't think so. I think Bama will be hard pressed to score twice against UGA next week. I don't know if it's a talent thing (doubtful), but there is a definite sense of vulnerability surrounding this season's version of the Tide.

And what can we say about Bedlam? It was definitely that. The Cowboys held a Riley offense down just enough to hold on to a win. Caleb Williams made it very interesting at the end! It was pretty sloppy, lots of turnovers. The OkState D played well and still gave up over 400 yards to the Sooners.

I don't want to spend too much time on all the games. I think we all know what happened yesterday. Of course I'm being lazy! We're down to the wire on the CFI, and conference championship games are all that's left besides Army-Navy

GO ARMY! BEAT NAVY!

Sorry, had to do it.

Top 25

I'm just gonna leave this here for now. Obviously next week will upend the top of the list, so let's be patient.

As you can see, there's a new #1. I was surprised that Wisconsin lost and that hurt them plenty for bowl selections I'm guessing. Notre Dame is in trouble without that conference championship game. 

If the Playoffs Started Today

Let's check out the 4, 8, and 16 team brackets if we ended the season today.

Final Four

Yes, I know. OSU got trucked. Remember, their 10 wins are still 10 wins, and losing to the now #1 doesn't cost them a thing. Do I think they're top 4? No. Does what I think or feel matter? Not a bit.

Elite Eight

So I switched Bama and Iowa, and MSU and ND. I would pay a lot of money to see the Tide in the Big House in mid to late December. A lot of money.

Sweet Sixteen

Much more the thing, yes? I swapped Minnesota and Ole Miss to prevent in-conference first round matchups. Now we have Wisky traveling south to Bryant Denny stadium to face Saban and the Tide while Kiffin and the Rebs head north to the Big House. Good stuff all the way around.

I hate that we're almost done with the season. Even though no one reads my posts or takes my rankings seriously, I still have fun doing them. And I hope that if you are reading this, you're having fun too!

Week 13 Top 25

Another week done. Where does the time go? At least we got a few more things settled out, right? No more Oregon talk finally. I swear I heard at least 3 different talking heads yakkity yaking about this pregame.

We've got a huge shakeup at the top of the rankings this week, and I don't mean Oregon. Keep scheduling FCS schools (or New Mexico State), and play the price.

Week 13 Reults

FCS Charleston Southern 7

#1 Georgia 56

Yawn. Until the playoff selections start penalizing FBS teams for this kind of crap, we're going to continue to see people treat these games like they mean something. Fortunately, I don't have to wait.

 

#73 Georgia Tech 0

#2 Notre Dame 55

Say what you will about the Irish, they don't schedule FCS schools to pad the resume.

And it pays off. Beating the 73rd ranked team is better than beating the best FCS team, and those SEC guys don't play the best.

#3 Michigan 59

#35 Maryland 18

...this could be a danger game for UM as they are not really built for big comebacks or rapid scoring.

Gotta admit, I didn't really watch this game. When I saw the score I was stunned. When did UM find that high scoring offense? Then I saw that they scored on a pick-6 and kickoff return.

#6 Michigan State 7

#4 Ohio State 56

I think the Vegas line is crazy here...maybe...Kenneth Walker may very well rush for over 200 yards, but that won't be enough to overcome Stroud's bajillion yards through the air.

Well, I'll give myself half credit. Stroud: 32/35 for 432 with 6 TDs and 0 INTs. All basically in the first half. Olave, Wilson, and Smith-Njigba all over 100 yards receiving, Olave and Wilson with 2 TDs each and Smith-Njigba with 1. The Buckeyes rolled up 500 yards of offense and 49 points in the first half and could have scored 100 points.

 

#5 Oklahoma State 23

#38 Texas Tech 0

TT is up and down again, but I expect OkState to want to make a solid statement going into Bedlam.

That Cowboy D held TT to 108 yards total offense. Next weekend is going to be interesting in the Big 12!

 

#62 Nebraska 28

#7 Wisconsin 35

Wisky has been playing such good football lately that I can't see Frost and Co pulling off the upset, especially in Camp Randall.

Nebraska is the best 3-win team in the country. The Huskers outgained the Badgers 452-398. This was a lot closer than I figured it'd be.

 

#41 Illinois 23

#8 Iowa 33

Not sure it matters which Illinois shows up here; the Hawkeyes are crushing it on D right now.

312-255. That is the total yardage for each team in this thrilling B1G match-up. And that's Illini yardage on the left.

 

#22 Iowa State 21

#9 Oklahoma 28

Well, will the Cyclones play up to OU or down to their 6-4 write this season off potential? How will OU respond to being absolutely handled last weekend?

Same old OU doing barely enough to win. Honestly I'm not sure why my algorithm puts them so high except the sheer number of wins.

 

#10 Wake Forest 27

#30 Clemson 48

Clemson is favored by 4. Dabo rage quit the coaches' poll. D.J. Uiagalelei should transfer to a coach who can develop NFL talent.

This game got out of hand in the 3rd quarter. DJ didn't have the best game, but he had his best game of the season, and Wake has been put out of their misery.

 

#11 Baylor 20

#18 Kansas State 10

The Wildcats are favored by 1. Will Baylor have an OU hangover? This has been a really odd season.

The Bears survived the hangover and did their part. Now they need some Bedlam help.

 

#113 Vanderbilt 17

#12 Ole Miss 31

I know, there's no way to control scheduling in conference. Ole Miss and Kiffin get a free pass this week. Has Lane found his true home?

Even though they shouldn't be penalized for in-conference scheduling, there's nothing to be done about it. This won't help the Rebs much.

 

#21 Arkansas 35

#13 Alabama 42

Bama might be better than I think they are, and Arkansas isn't as good as some folks think. Tide in a big win here.

Totally missed this one, eh? Arkansas played these guys tough, and on the road! Bryce Young had a monster game (31/40 for 559, 5 TDs and 0 INTs), yet Bama had another close call. #2 team in the country? Nope.

 

#72 Northwestern 14

#14 Purdue 32

Trust the committee to ignore the work Purdue has put in this season. It doesn't fit the narrative that ESPN wants to sell that the SEC is the end-all be-all conference.

Brohm is building a solid program in West Lafayette. If he can keep it up they will be on the national radar next season.

 

#15 BYU

#124 Georgia Southern

Now, this isn't an FCS school, but I think we all know that GA Southern isn't exactly a solid P5 program. Shame on you, BYU.

And I'm glad GA Southern gave you a hard time for a half. 

 

#16 Oregon 7

#28 Utah 38

How is Utah favored? And by 3.5? While the Ducks are definitely not #3, Utah has been mediocre at best this season.

I think I've mentioned I should stop with the predictions. Yeah, time to take my own advice. Utah flat out dominated this game, and the Ducks were never in it. That punt return TD going into halftime was the dagger that ended it.

 

#42 Rutgers 0

#17 Penn State 28

Franklin will be OK. PSU will be OK. Schiano probably doesn't have anything for the Nittany Lions.

Very workmanlike performance by PSU with a freshman QB after Clifford left the game with flu-like symptoms. The Knights have a shot at bowl eligibility with a win next week vs MD.

 

FCS Prairie View A&M 3

#19 Texas A&M 52

Yawn. Until the playoff selections start penalizing FBS teams for this kind of crap, we're going to continue to see people treat these games like they mean something. Fortunately, I don't have to wait (yes, you saw this same take above).

 

#49 SMU14

#20 Cincinnati 48

Could this be the game that finally pushes the committee to acknowledge UC? Dunno, but this could be a barn burner!

I'm pretty sure Cincy makes the Four on Tuesday. Ridder had a huge day with 3 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD, and 1 receiving TD! Fickell made sure that the Manbearpigs put a stamp on this game.

 

FCS Tennessee State 10

#23 Mississippi State 55

Yawn. Until the playoff selections start penalizing FBS teams for this kind of crap, we're going to continue to see people treat these games like they mean something. Fortunately, I don't have to wait (yes, you saw this same take above...again).

 

#59 Syracuse 17

#24 NC State 41

Kind of a meh game for me, but this could be important for bowl invites for the Wolfpack.

28 point 2nd quarter with a pick-6 and kickoff return for TD put this one away early.

 

#25 Virginia 38

#26 Pitt 48

Nothing here keeps Pitt out of the conference championship game. This game matters more to the teams that both teams have already played.

Wish I'd watched this one, that score looks like it would have been entertaining!

Top 25

Disclaimer: this is the first week with losses actually costing points based on relative ranking. Some of the moves are heavily influenced by that, and as you know the downline changes really have a heavy weight added to the first line points.

I believe I mentioned a shakeup at the top? Yeah. I'm not super surprised considering that my system is designed to penalize FBS schools for scheduling FCS opponents.

#25 (New) Minnesota 7-4 The Gophers are bolstering OSU's numbers with every win. No reason they shouldn't be ranked.

#24 (New) NC State 8-3 Probably the most under the radar 8-win team in the land.

#23 (prev #20) Kansas State 7-4 Still has to be considered a solid season for KState. Bowl eligible and one more game against a truly awful Texas.

#22 (prev #17) Brigham Young 9-2 Gotta stop with the FCS schools. This si actually unusual for BYU, but you should not be rewarded for it regardless.

#21 (prev #18) Texas A&M 8-3 Same issue here. Stop padding the record! This is why RPI was done away with in men's basketball - teams scheduling soft with blowouts to fool the algorithm.

#20 (New) Clemson 8-3 Welcome back! I certainly hadn't anticipated seeing ol Dabo back here. I still think DJ should transfer, though.

#19 (New) Pittsburgh 9-2 Possible ACC champ here. I don't see Syracuse causing these guys any problems next week.

#18 (prev #16) Cincinnati 11-0 I know, doesn't make much sense that Cincinnati drops. This is where the new loss points affected Cincinnati's points from downline teams. Also, their OW% is .480 even with 10-1 ND and 8-3 SMU.

#17 (New) Utah 8-3 The Utes were #28, so this is a big jump. Well deserved, as they dominated Oregon.

#16 (prev #14) Oregon 9-2 Remember, I said this wouldn't be much of an upset if the Ducks lose. At least we should stop hearing about their head to head with OSU. Ugh.

#15 (prev #13) Mississippi 9-2 Not Kiffin's fault with the scheduling, but here we are.

#14 (prev #19) Penn State 7-4 The wins add points that add up, and if you lose to teams you're supposed to lose to it doesn't hurt as badly (see MSU). This is how a 7-win team can be ranked over a 9-win.

#13 (prev #11) Wake Forest 9-2 Got worked by a solid Clemson D. Here's the weird thing: if BC beats Wake next week, Clemson goes to the ACC championship game. Really.

#12 (prev #15) Purdue 7-4 Who you play matters. A lot.

#11 (prev #8) Alabama 10-1 See above

#10 (prev #9) Iowa 9-2 The Hawkeyes looked dead in the water after dropping ack to back games. Nice recovery.

#9 (prev #6) Baylor 9-2 This is where the new system account for losses is making itself felt. Still, the Bears can move up, especially if OkSt beats OU next week.

#8 (prev #12) Michigan State 9-2 Another team affected by the new loss accounting. Losing to teams ranked ahead of you shouldn't hurt.

#7 (prev #10) Oklahoma 10-1 So weird to me how this happens, but the new loss system benefits teams losing to highly ranked teams.

#6 (prev #7) Wisconsin 8-3 The Badgers are in control of their own destiny. Win next week at Minnesota and they're off to the B1G championship game. 

#5 (prev #3) Georgia 11-0 Yes, I know. Playing an FCS school hurts, as it should. Stop doing it!

#4 (prev #2) Oklahoma State 10-1 Unfortunately Texas Tech didn't add enough points to keep the Boys ahead of the competition. The loss to TCU hurts more with the new accounting as well.

#3 (prev #4) Michigan 10-1 There is a B1G showdown looming in the Big House next week. Winner goes to the conference championship game and has a path to the Invitational. Loser gets a "Thanks for Coming" bowl game. No pressure.

#2 (prev #1) Notre Dame 10-1 Doing everything they can to attract the attention of the committee probably will not be enough unless the B1G team and Cincy look awful next week. ND is hurt by no conference again.

#1 (prev #5) Ohio State 10-1 A new #1 after an absolutely dominating performance against MSU (and the tweaks to the loss accounting). Ohio high school football has a running clock in the 2nd half for blowouts. We should have that for CFB.

Playoff Fun

I know that the 4 team will make the SEC homers' heads explode. Sorry. Tell your ADs to stop scheduling FCS schools.

Ray's Final Four

I really like the 2-3 game, and it would be fitting to have an all B1G final just to hear the sobs and screams of the SEC and ESPN execs. But as we say, four is not a real playoff.

Ray's Elite Eight

I swapped OU-MSU and Wisky-UGA to avoid in-conference match-ups. This could be fun. But eight isn't enough.

Ray's Sweet Sixteen

I love everything about this. I swapped PSU and Wake for obvious reasons. But I love the OSU-Oregon rematch (just to shut everyone up permanently); I love the upset machine that is Purdue heading to Sanford Stadium in Athens; I mostly love Bama in Camp Randall in December!

How can anyone think this is "too many?" 

Maybe we'll get to 16 with a real selection process that isn't beholden to ESPN before I die. I can hope.

Head on over to the main page for all the numbers.

Ray's Rankings				11/21/21
Rank	Prev	∆	School	Record
1	5	+4	Ohio State	10-1
2	1	-1	Notre Dame	10-1
3	4	+1	Michigan	10-1
4	2	-2	Oklahoma State	10-1
5	3	-2	Georgia	11-0
6	7	+1	Wisconsin	8-3
7	10	+3	Oklahoma	10-1
8	12	+4	Michigan State	9-2
9	6	-3	Baylor	9-2
10	9	-1	Iowa	9-2
11	8	-3	Alabama	10-1
12	15	+3	Purdue	7-4
13	11	-2	Wake Forest	9-2
14	19	+5	Penn State	7-4
15	14	-1	Oregon	9-2
16	/	New	Utah	8-3
17	13	-4	Mississippi	9-2
18	16	-2	Cincinnati	11-0
19	/	New	Pittsburgh	9-2
20	/	New	Clemson	8-3
21	17	-4	Brigham Young	9-2
22	18	-4	Texas A&M	8-3
23	20	-3	Kansas State	7-4
24	/	New	North Carolina State	8-3
25	/	New	Minnesota	7-4