Ray's Rankings: No Season Left Behind 2011

Yes, it has been forever. My apologies. The whole COVID thing and work has just been overwhelming. But hey, we have college football again! Sort of. I doubt that I'll be running my rankings this season, or if I do it'll be for fun and inconsistent. I will try to spend more time on NSLB posts instead.

So, 2011.

If I'm honest, I don't really recall much on the celebrity passing side. Except for one that had a large impact on me. In 2011, we lost:

Jumping Jack Lalane
Jane "just wow" Russell
Liz
The Machoman
Kenickie/Bobby Wheeler
Dr Death Kevorkian
The Big Man, Clarence Clemmons
Sherwood Schwartz
Officer Hightower
Smokin' Joe
Colonel Potter

and last but definitely not least

Steve Jobs

What else happened in 2011?

Holy crap tsunami.
Osama bin Laden is fish food.
Arab Spring
Gaddafi dead.
Financial crisis in Greece
Occupy Idiots
Murdoch tapping phones
Gabby Giffords is shot

How Much things cost in 2011

Average Cost of New House $262,260.00
Cost of a gallon of Gas $3.52
US Postage Stamp 44 cents
Gallon of Milk $3.39
Move Ticket $8.20
Price Of Gold Per Ounce ( August 2011 ) $1,677.95
Average Yearly Wages $40,925.00

And, as always, the top movies of the year!

Cars 2 - may as well have been Tow Mater 1
The Smurfs - google Pirate Radio Smurfs, you'll thank me
The Hangover Part II - not a fan pf stretching concepts that were great the first time
Fast Five - Jordana Brewster is the only reason I watch those films
Kung Fu Panda 2 - I usually like these, this one was ok
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol - waaay better than 2 or 3
Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 - ugh
Pirates: On Stranger Tides - I've only seen the first one
Transformers: Dark of the Moon - Michael Bay is rich, and that is a condemnation of our country's taste
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - I solemnly swear that I am up to no good

Okay, I guess we're all ready for some football!

In 2011, RGIII beat out Andrew Luck for the Heisman. Yet more proof that Heisman voters are of questionable capacity.

There were some great and heartbreaking games:

TCU 36

Boise State 35

This one hurt as I've been a BSU fan for a long time. I'll be curious to see where these teams end up in my rankings. Did Boise Really deserve a shot? Dunno. I know that Kellen Moore went 50-3.

South Carolina 45

UGA 42

Eight. Lead. Changes.

Arkansas 31

Vandy 28

Vanderbilt had this game in the bag!

Michigan State 37

Wisconsin 31

Iowa State 37

Oklahoma State 31

Baylor 50

TCU 48

20 minutes of highlights because 98 friggin points!

OK, let's get retro!

Here's a quick reminder of the rules:

I stop all data at the conference championships. No bowl games are included, as the idea is to provide us with a top 25 that we would have selected playoff teams from.
All calculations are exactly the same as the current Ray's Rankings calculations.
I will introduce the top 25 in reverse order
I will compare RR/BCS/AP rankings
I will provide 3 different playoff scenarios

4 team seeded
8 team with conference champions, top G5, and 2 at large, seeded
16 team seeded

We can all have a good laugh at how different things would have been. Or we can all stare slack-jawed in amazement at how closely Ray's Rankings matches human polls.

Pedestrian seasons for these guys, though I hadn't recalled that Cincinnati has been this good for this long.

The Irish always play a tough schedule, and it benefits them in my rankings in the same way not being in a conference championship game hurts them

So, I reversed the Boise/TCU outcome, and Boise made it all the way to...#10

VaTech has had some memorable years in the past decade.

9-3 Sooners at #9. The SRS is pretty stout, and they played a tough schedule.

The Ducks have had a heck of a run. They lost to a very good LSU and a highly motivated USC.

Yawn. Yet another 10-win season for the Wolverines. This was also the only time in the past 20 years that they beat OSU...

Ok Bama Boyz, here's your pain. The Tide simply was not as good as the voters wanted them to be this season.

Pac 12. Strength of schedule. It's real. Go read my post about it. Only an inexplicable loss to Arizona State marred this season for them. What about the other loss? Wait.

We don't need no stinking Badgers! But with Montee Ball and Russell Wilson, Wisky was the real deal in 2011.

One quarter away from #2 probably. Or one decent OT period.

The 1-2 gap is stupid small.

The Cardinal finished just 0.002 ahead of LSU.

Without a CFB playoff committee, I will be using the AP poll prior to bowl games and the final BCS rankings. Let's check it out:

Ray vs the AP

	AP		RR	Diff
1	LSU	SEC	2	1
2	Alabama	SEC	6	4
3	Oklahoma State	Big 12	3	0
4	Stanford	Pac-12	1	-3
5	USC	Pac-12	5	0
6	Oregon	Pac-12	8	2
7	Arkansas	SEC	13	6
8	Boise State	Mountain West	11	3
9	Wisconsin	Big Ten	4	-5
10	South Carolina	SEC	14	4
11	Kansas State	Big 12	19	8
12	Michigan State	Big Ten	12	0
13	Michigan	Big Ten	7	-6
14	Clemson	ACC	20	6
15	Baylor	Big 12	18	3
16	TCU	Big 12	30	14
17	Virginia Tech	ACC	10	-7
18	Georgia	SEC	15	-3
19	Oklahoma	Big 12	9	-10
20	Houston	American	17	-3
21	Nebraska	Big Ten	23	2
22	Southern Miss	C-USA	27	5
23	West Virginia	Big 12	29	6
24	Penn State	Big Ten	31	7
25	Florida State	ACC	21	-4

What's it all mean?

Mean	1.200
Variance	29.917
SD	5.470

SEC	2.40
Big Ten	-0.40
Pac-12	-0.33
Big 12	3.50
ACC	-1.67
American	-3.00
Mountain West	3.00

The mean difference is one of the smallest we've seen. The voters got TCU and Oklahoma very wrong, the rest weren't too bad.

But.

The SEC and Big 12 were still favored by voters more than they should have been, and the ACC was penalized.

Against the BCS? This blew me away:

	BCS		RR	Diff
1	LSU	SEC	2	1
2	Alabama	SEC	6	4
3	Oklahoma State	Big 12	3	0
4	Stanford	Pac-12	1	-3
5	Oregon	Pac-12	8	3
6	Arkansas	SEC	13	7
7	Boise State	Mountain West	11	4
8	Kansas State	Big 12	19	11
9	South Carolina	SEC	14	5
10	Wisconsin	Big Ten	4	-6
11	Virginia Tech	ACC	10	-1
12	Baylor	Big 12	18	6
13	Michigan	Big Ten	7	-6
14	Oklahoma	Big 12	9	-5
15	Clemson	ACC	20	5
16	Georgia	SEC	15	-1
17	Michigan State	Big Ten	12	-5
18	TCU	Big 12	30	12
19	Houston	American	17	-2
20	Nebraska	Big Ten	23	3
21	Southern Miss	C-USA	27	6
22	Penn State	Big Ten	31	9
23	West Virginia	Big 12	29	6
24	Texas	Big 12	22	-2
25	Auburn	SEC	63	38

Auburn. Arkansas. South Carolina. Alabama. The BCS was a friggin SEC lapdog this season.

Mean	3.560
Variance	78.007
SD	8.832

SEC	9.00
Big Ten	-1.00
Pac-12	0.00
Big 12	4.00
ACC	2.00
American	-2.00
Mountain West	4.00

Mean difference is 30% higher. SD is almost 40% higher. And really, look at the average difference by conference. How can anyone rank any conference 9 places higher than they deserve? Gawd the BCS sucked it hard.

4 team playoff.

Great games, but only 4 teams?

8 Team Playoff

Here's my 8 team seeded. 5 conference champions, top Group of 5 team in the Top 25 (the Broncos are in!), and the next top ranked at-large teams (USC and Bama here).