First Rankings of the Season!

Well folks, here we go! I actually watched some football yesterday, and it wasn't awful. I mean, some of the football was awful, but watching it wasn't.

Anyway, this is a seriously strange season already, and I expect that my rankings will reflect that for at least half the season. As I've explained before, my system is retrodictive. It looks backwards at past performances and ranks teams based on their performance, their opponents' performances, and their opponents opponents' performances. 

Also, my system is the only system (that I'm aware of) that actually penalizes teams for playing FCS schools. If you're Clemson or Oregon and you schedule Eastern Carolina or Austin Peay, it counts against you worse than a loss. I treat it as an unfair bye week. Urban Meyer (love him or hate him, he knows the game) hit the nail on the head last season. He said that if you walk into the trainer's room of an FBS team after they've played an FCS school vs after they've played an FBS school, you'll see the unfair advantage an FCS game confers upon the team that plays them. It's basically cheating.

That said (again), it shouldn't be too difficult to see why certain schools are ranked where they are. Also, many teams haven't played yet. While I'm willing to allow for some reputation/history to influence the early rankings, that amount of influence is going to be small. I made an arbitrary decision to take last year's final numbers and divide by 10 and make that the initial starting point for this season. 

So, here are my Top 25 CFB teams after week 3-ish:

Last season, Baylor only lost to Oklahoma twice and then Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. That said, their wins in general were "barely there.' 

The Gators looked very good last season. They did lose to LSU (who didn't) and UGA, and they played 2(!) FCS teams in Tenn-Martin and Towson. Begs the question: were they as good as they were because they played 2 fewer FBS teams?

And here's number 1 weirdness. Troy's total score last season was 0.7333 (LSU scored 10.2266 for comparison). But, they beat a Group of 5 team and got the points to go with that.

The Nittany Lions seem to be always on the cusp. Losing Micah Parsons is a problem this season. He might get back, we'll see.

Wisky is the always overachieving but less talented friend. If you had all the cool new toys, your Wisky friend got his from garage sales and hand-me-downs.

The Green Wave gave one away to Navy yesterday. Heartbreaker for them.

This season is making me happy in ways I can't even explain. Turn loose the Waterboy!

One of these years Kirby Smart is going to truly break through.

Cowboy up! Chuba had a pretty pedestrian day. Pretty much the only play I saw from him he fumbled the ball away.

I'm glad Justin Fields and especially Shaun Wade will get to compete.

The U put the hurt on Louisville yesterday. 

I know, I know...what is Clemson doing down here at 2-0? I will refer you to the explanation above and their recent victory over the Mighty Citadel. Seriously? In a shortened season like this they're still padding the resume.

What's the over/under on wins for a Jeaux Burreaux-less LSU? I like Coach O, so I hope they hit the over.

Go Army! Beat Navy! 2 G5 wins does a body good.

45-42 over Wake has to be considered a good win to start their season.

So, does this increase, decrease, or leave at status quo the movement for forcing the Irish into a conference?

2nd level points is why GT is ahead of ND here. It's close, 0.0073 apart.

More weird. Again, 2nd level points are keeping ND behind teams that, if we're honest, have no business being here.

The Eagles beat up on Duke better than ND did. Doesn't really mean anything, just a tidbit of info.

What we're really seeing is the ACC getting out of the gate first.

Or not? Beating a 1-win Navy helps all around for the Cougars.

And Navy over Tulane, ugly as it was, combined with last seasons rep points keeps them ahead of BYU.

After last season, this isn't really a surprise.

It's the return of The U! maybe. We'll see when we get deeper into the season.

The Knights stand tall! It's a 0.001 gap back to the Canes.

Where are the Big 12 teams? Who did they play? You got it: FCS schools.

Early days, folks, but here we are! What do you think?