I will be the first to admit that my system gives some seriously "interesting" results.
But first, which games did you watch? I got lucky: one of my employees loaned us his Peacock subscription so we got to see most of the OSU game. I'm still not sold on McCord. He has happy feet. Also got to see most of the UW-Oregon game. That was fun to watch! And what the heck was Oregon thinking there at the end? And of course I watched USC-ND. I will tell you that story.
I went to Mater Dei in Santa Ana (and yes, we just got stomped by Bosco yet again). One of my teachers was Bruce Rollinson before he became coach. On the Friday before the 1986 game he told us the story of how USC would travel to South Bend and be serenaded by the Irish fans chanting "Goooo Irish, beeeeat Trojans" for hours prior to kickoff. If you didn't know, Rollinson played for USC, (which explains the MD-USC connection). So it is safe to say that he really doesn't like ND. Anyway, Notre Dame won on Saturday thanks to a 17 point comeback captained by Steve Beuerlein, who had also attended Servite High, MD's most hated rival. USC lost on a last second field goal.
Basically it was a perfect storm of pissed off Rollinson on Monday morning. When we walked into class he had us sit and read silently while he continued to stew over the game. About 5 minutes in I just couldn't resist. I chanted "Gooooo Irish..." And to my classmates' everlasting credit, they all responded with "Beeeeeat Irish!" No question it was my finest hour in high school!
I will say that it did not surprise me to see ND win. The score was shocking, however. Lincoln Riley needs to get it together if he wants to succeed in the B1G, where they usually play defense.
So, back to the odd results. I think I've rediscovered the major issue with my formula. If #133 loses to #122, they should not be penalized by the full amount (-0.917) that a loss to #122 comes with. They should only be penalized by the difference between #133 (-1.000) and #122 (-0.917), which is a more realistic -0.083. Same with a win.
Basically what has happened is that the negatives have become too powerful. I think I need to go back to the basics of assigned values for the teams based on conference. Trying to figure out the spreadsheet formula for what I really need seems to be beyond my skill level. So, here's what I'm doing:
- Power 5 conference schools are worth 1.0 point for a win and -0.33 for a loss.
- The good Group of 5 conferences are worth 0.66/-0.66 for a win and a loss
- The not so good Group of 5 and a few independents are worth 0.33 for a win and 1.0 for a loss.
- FCS are worth 0 for a win and -2 for a loss
That's about all I can do at this point. Maybe someday I'll get with the Excel forum people and see if someone can build me the array that I need. For now, it's back to mainly basics. Without further ado...
25 Wisconsin 4-2 Prev 15 ∆ -10 Took a weirdly low scoring loss to #19 Iowa. They did lose their starting QB in the 2nd quarter. Still, I think Fickell will have something for us next season.
24 Tennessee 5-1 Prev ~ The Vols needed a punt return late to overcome an underperforming #58 A&M. I can’t figure Tennessee out yet.
23 TCU 4-3 Prev ~ Beat up on hapless #72 BYU. Their loss to Colorado early isn’t helping, but their 2nd level points are offsetting that nicely.
22 Oklahoma State 4-2 Prev ~ The Cowboys scored 12 in the 4th to beat #34 KU. They have a bad loss to South Alabama, but similar to TCU their 2nd level points are positive.
21 USC 6-1 Prev 19 ∆ -2 We already talked about these guys. They should be worried about next season. The #3 ND defense really just pushed the Trojans around all night.
20 Missouri 6-1 Prev ~ Started slow against #73 Kentucky but got it moving the right direction.
19 Iowa 6-1 Prev 23 ∆ +4 Beat #25 Wisky 15-6. Their sole loss is to #7 PSU.
18 Duke 5-1 Prev 20 ∆ +2 Kinda stomped #62 NC State. Can’t quite figure them out, but maybe they are that good? I guess we’ll see next Saturday when they face #5 FSU…
17 Alabama 6-1 Prev 13 ∆ -4 The Saban Era isn’t over until he retires as the GOAT. That said, I’m wondering if we’re seeing some cracks in the facade? They squeaked by #92 Arkansas.
16 Oregon 5-1 Prev 7 ∆ -9 This is an unfortunate result of updating the system such that it doesn’t measure against itself. The Ducks probably deserve to be higher, and if not for an incredibly boneheaded (yet consistent) 4th down call late, this spot belongs to #4 UW and Oregon is top 5.
15 Oregon State 6-1 Prev 24 ∆ +9 #35 UCLA had a few moments, but DJ Uiagalelei and friends took care of business. I’m happy for him; and I’m glad Swinney didn’t completely ruin him.
14 LSU 5-2 Prev 16 ∆ +2 Gotta say I’m a bit surprised to see the Tigers this high, but the system is the system. They whupped #69 Auburn good.
13 Utah 5-1 Prev 14 ∆ +1 I remember when beating #61 Cal meant something. Still no Cam Rising for the Utes.
12 WSU 4-2 Prev 8 ∆ -4 Well, getting walloped by #39 Arizona can’t be good for your ego. Still, the Cougs have the 19th toughest SoS and a ton of 2nd level points.
11 Michigan 7-0 Prev 11 No, I’m not manipulating the numbers to keep UM artificially depressed. They have negative 2nd level points is all. ECU, UNLV, and BGSU to start the season is not very impressive, and their “signature” win is over #40 Rutgers.
10 Ole Miss 5-1 Prev 12 ∆ +2 I don’t care what anyone says, I like Lane Kiffin. The Rebs were off this week.
9 Louisville 6-1 Prev 4 ∆ -5 Don’t put too much stock in the delta. The Cardinals lost to #32 Pitt. How is 2-4 Pitt #32 you ask? 2nd level points. Again.
8 UNC 6-0 Prev 6 ∆ -2 I thought that maybe #30 Miami might have something for the Heels. I was wrong. Way wrong, though the Canes made it interesting-ish in the 4th.
7 Penn State 6-0 Prev 1 ∆ -6 Yes, PSU rolled over #106 Mass. Whatever. Their 1st real test is next Saturday vs #2 OSU.
6 Oklahoma 6-0 Prev 5 ∆ -1 OU was off this week.
5 Florida State 6-0 Prev 10 ∆ +5 FSU is being carried along by their wins over #14 LSU and #27 Clemson.
4 Washington 6-0 Prev 9 ∆ +5 There but for the grace of bad play calling goes Oregon. Hell of a game, and UW grabbed at the available chances to create an instant classic.
3 Notre Dame 6-2 Prev 17 ∆ +14 Yes, a 2-loss ND is #3. They have the most 2nd level points in FBS and are 27th in 1st level points, 12th in SRS and 3rd in SoS. Ask USC if they’re worthy.
2 Ohio State 6-0 Prev 3 ∆ +1 I can’t tell if the OSU D is legit. I’m just not sure. They held #42 Purdue to 257 total yards when the Boilers are averaging 371. The Bucks are giving up an average of 263/gm.
1 Texas 5-1 Prev 2 ∆ +1 The Longhorns were off this week. Teams they beat won, so more 2nd level points get accrued. It pays to schedule good teams.
Where's UGA? 44. They are 107th in 2nd level points. It's really killing them. Look at it this way: USC has the worst 2nd level points in the top 25 at -0.2600. The Bulldogs are at -0.7620.
It's starting to get interesting. I hope your team won this weekend!
