OK, we're getting deep enough into the season that the system is returning what I'd consider reasonable numbers if we keep in mind some caveats:
- Some teams are playing essentially any team that will schedule them. This is hurting their rankings even with a high number of wins (BYU, Army just to name a couple)
- Other teams are hurt by not playing enough games so far. That is unfortunate, but since the system averages it just is what it is.
- Head to head matchups generally don't matter to the system (other than W/L) unless they have very similar schedules.
So here's my plan for this post. Below are my top 25. I want to break down some obvious strangeness, in detail. This may be a little boring, but it will help me to explain why my system puts certain teams where it does. I won't be getting into the fun games from yesterday (Rutgers-UM, UGA-MissSt, Cincy-UCF stand out off the top of my head).
A quick refreshers on how we get the rankings:
- There are 1st, 2nd, and 3rd level points
- 1st level points are for winning
- 2nd and 3rd level are for the 1st and 2nd level points of the teams you beat
- There is the SRS score, which is a ranked system that accounts for scoring differential
- Each input is ranked, and the overall position of a team is the average of the weighted rankings (50% for 1st level, 30% for 2nd level, 15% for 3rd level, and 5% for SRS)
That's about it. See my earlier posts to see how points are determined.
1st Level Points
Oklahoma has beaten:
Missouri State for -1pt (remember, you are penalized for playing an FCS school)
Texas 1pt
TCU 1pt
Texas Tech 1pt
Kansas 1pt
OkSt 1pt
Summed and averaged, OU has 0.5000 1st level points
OkSt has beaten:
Tulsa 0.75pt (Group of 5 teams are worth less than Power 5 teams)
WVU 1pt
Kansas 1pt
Iowa State 1pt
Kansas St 1pt
Summed and averaged, OkSt has 0.6786 1st level points
OkSt 1st level points rank 12 spots higher than OU 1st level points
2nd Level Points
These are the 1st level points of the teams you beat.
Oklahoma:
Missouri State 0pt
Texas 4.75pt
TCU 3pt
Texas Tech 1pt
Kansas 0pt
OkSt 4.75pt
Summed, averaged and divided by the number of games played modifier, OU has 0.1350 2nd level points.
OklahomaSt:
Tulsa 3.75pt
WVU 3pt
Kansas 0pt
Iowa State 6pt
Kansas St 4pt
Summed, averaged and divided by the number of games played modifier, OkSt has 0.1682 2nd level points.
The Cowboys' 2nd level points rank 9 spots higher than the Sooners' 2nd level points. It is worth noting that OkSt 2nd level points rank 2nd only to Bama.
3rd Level Points
These are the 2nd level points of the teams you beat.
Oklahoma:
Missouri State 0pt
Texas 8.5pt
TCU 6.5pt
Texas Tech 4pt
Kansas 0pt
OkSt 16.75pt
Summed, averaged and divided by the number of games played modifier, OU has 0.3600 3rd level points.
OklahomaSt:
Tulsa 8pt
WVU 8pt
Kansas 0pt
Iowa State 13pt
Kansas St 8pt
Summed, averaged and divided by the number of games played modifier, OkSt has 0.3715 3rd level points.
OkSt 3rd level points rank 1 spot higher than OU 3rd level points. Both are in the top 6 overall.
SRS
The SRS is derived by game point differentials. I am using the College Football Reference version for now because my version breaks when the number of games are weird.
Oklahoma SRS: 11.54
Oklahoma State SRS: 7.58
OU SRS ranks 12 spots higher than OkSt SRS. Neither are in the top 20.
Conclusion
We see that the Cowboys rank higher in 3 of 4 categories, and the one that OU ranks higher in is the one with the least weight attached.
First problem for OU is playing an FCS school. Using FCS schools to pad your resume is a no-no in my system, and you get penalized for it. This also goes to strength of schedule, where OkSt is 29th and OU is 71st. Those rankings don't matter for points, they are just indicative of how the 2nd and 3rd level points fall out.
This is also the 2nd problem for OU here. SoS. OU is more than 3 full points behind in 2nd level points. In plain English, overall (and that is key here for my system) the teams OkSt has beaten are better than the teams OU has beaten, even considering the head to head win by OU over OkSt.
I hope this helps to explain how a team like Clemson at 7-1 can be ranked 11 while a 5-0 Northwestern is ranked 5. Clemson has played the Citadel, and the teams they've beaten are not very good. Northwestern has played no FCS schools and the teams they've beaten are marginally better than the ACC teams Clemson beat.
Also, while Clemson is 7-1, that one FCS school turns them into a 5 win team here. It doesn't just become a 0, it is actually a -1 for 1st level points. So basically we have a 5-0 Northwestern ranked higher than a 5-1 Clemson, and that starts to make more intuitive sense (and it makes 6-2 OU become 4-2; moral of the story is don't schedule FCS teams).
I'm here. Tell me how stupid I am and how my system sucks and how I don't know football. It's what I get a lot of. But before you do, please read my main post that explains the system in detail and how it is retrodictive and not at all predictive.
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