First Rankings of the Season!

Well folks, here we go! I actually watched some football yesterday, and it wasn't awful. I mean, some of the football was awful, but watching it wasn't.

Anyway, this is a seriously strange season already, and I expect that my rankings will reflect that for at least half the season. As I've explained before, my system is retrodictive. It looks backwards at past performances and ranks teams based on their performance, their opponents' performances, and their opponents opponents' performances. 

Also, my system is the only system (that I'm aware of) that actually penalizes teams for playing FCS schools. If you're Clemson or Oregon and you schedule Eastern Carolina or Austin Peay, it counts against you worse than a loss. I treat it as an unfair bye week. Urban Meyer (love him or hate him, he knows the game) hit the nail on the head last season. He said that if you walk into the trainer's room of an FBS team after they've played an FCS school vs after they've played an FBS school, you'll see the unfair advantage an FCS game confers upon the team that plays them. It's basically cheating.

That said (again), it shouldn't be too difficult to see why certain schools are ranked where they are. Also, many teams haven't played yet. While I'm willing to allow for some reputation/history to influence the early rankings, that amount of influence is going to be small. I made an arbitrary decision to take last year's final numbers and divide by 10 and make that the initial starting point for this season. 

So, here are my Top 25 CFB teams after week 3-ish:

Last season, Baylor only lost to Oklahoma twice and then Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. That said, their wins in general were "barely there.' 

The Gators looked very good last season. They did lose to LSU (who didn't) and UGA, and they played 2(!) FCS teams in Tenn-Martin and Towson. Begs the question: were they as good as they were because they played 2 fewer FBS teams?

And here's number 1 weirdness. Troy's total score last season was 0.7333 (LSU scored 10.2266 for comparison). But, they beat a Group of 5 team and got the points to go with that.

The Nittany Lions seem to be always on the cusp. Losing Micah Parsons is a problem this season. He might get back, we'll see.

Wisky is the always overachieving but less talented friend. If you had all the cool new toys, your Wisky friend got his from garage sales and hand-me-downs.

The Green Wave gave one away to Navy yesterday. Heartbreaker for them.

This season is making me happy in ways I can't even explain. Turn loose the Waterboy!

One of these years Kirby Smart is going to truly break through.

Cowboy up! Chuba had a pretty pedestrian day. Pretty much the only play I saw from him he fumbled the ball away.

I'm glad Justin Fields and especially Shaun Wade will get to compete.

The U put the hurt on Louisville yesterday. 

I know, I know...what is Clemson doing down here at 2-0? I will refer you to the explanation above and their recent victory over the Mighty Citadel. Seriously? In a shortened season like this they're still padding the resume.

What's the over/under on wins for a Jeaux Burreaux-less LSU? I like Coach O, so I hope they hit the over.

Go Army! Beat Navy! 2 G5 wins does a body good.

45-42 over Wake has to be considered a good win to start their season.

So, does this increase, decrease, or leave at status quo the movement for forcing the Irish into a conference?

2nd level points is why GT is ahead of ND here. It's close, 0.0073 apart.

More weird. Again, 2nd level points are keeping ND behind teams that, if we're honest, have no business being here.

The Eagles beat up on Duke better than ND did. Doesn't really mean anything, just a tidbit of info.

What we're really seeing is the ACC getting out of the gate first.

Or not? Beating a 1-win Navy helps all around for the Cougars.

And Navy over Tulane, ugly as it was, combined with last seasons rep points keeps them ahead of BYU.

After last season, this isn't really a surprise.

It's the return of The U! maybe. We'll see when we get deeper into the season.

The Knights stand tall! It's a 0.001 gap back to the Canes.

Where are the Big 12 teams? Who did they play? You got it: FCS schools.

Early days, folks, but here we are! What do you think?

No Season Left Behind 2011

Yes, it has been forever. My apologies. The whole COVID thing and work has just been overwhelming. But hey, we have college football again! Sort of. I doubt that I'll be running my rankings this season, or if I do it'll be for fun and inconsistent. I will try to spend more time on NSLB posts instead.

So, 2011.

If I'm honest, I don't really recall much on the celebrity passing side. Except for one that had a large impact on me. In 2011, we lost:

• Jumping Jack Lalane
• Jane "just wow" Russell
• Liz
• The Machoman
• Kenickie/Bobby Wheeler
• Dr Death Kevorkian
• The Big Man, Clarence Clemmons
• Sherwood Schwartz
• Officer Hightower
• Smokin' Joe
• Colonel Potter

    and last but definitely not least

• Steve Jobs

What else happened in 2011?

• Holy crap tsunami. 
• Osama bin Laden is fish food.
• Arab Spring
• Gaddafi dead.
• Financial crisis in Greece
• Occupy Idiots
• Murdoch tapping phones
• Gabby Giffords is shot

How Much things cost in 2011 

• Average Cost of New House $262,260.00
• Cost of a gallon of Gas $3.52
• US Postage Stamp 44 cents
• Gallon of Milk $3.39
• Move Ticket $8.20
• Price Of Gold Per Ounce ( August 2011 ) $1,677.95
• Average Yearly Wages $40,925.00

And, as always, the top movies of the year!

10. Cars 2 - may as well have been Tow Mater 1
9. The Smurfs - google Pirate Radio Smurfs, you'll thank me
8. The Hangover Part II - not a fan pf stretching concepts that were great the first time
7. Fast Five - Jordana Brewster is the only reason I watch those films
6. Kung Fu Panda 2 - I usually like these, this one was ok
5. Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol - waaay better than 2 or 3
4. Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 - ugh
3. Pirates: On Stranger Tides - I've only seen the first one
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon - Michael Bay is rich, and that is a condemnation of our country's taste
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - I solemnly swear that I am up to no good

Okay, I guess we're all ready for some football!

In 2011, RGIII beat out Andrew Luck for the Heisman. Yet more proof that Heisman voters are of questionable capacity.

There were some great and heartbreaking games:

TCU 36

Boise State 35

This one hurt as I've been a BSU fan for a long time. I'll be curious to see where these teams end up in my rankings. Did Boise Really deserve a shot? Dunno. I know that Kellen Moore went 50-3.

South Carolina 45

UGA 42

Eight. Lead. Changes.

Arkansas 31

Vandy 28

Vanderbilt had this game in the bag!

Michigan State 37

Wisconsin 31

Iowa State 37

Oklahoma State 31

Baylor 50

TCU 48

20 minutes of highlights because 98 friggin points!

OK, let's get retro!

Here's a quick reminder of the rules:

• I stop all data at the conference championships. No bowl games are included, as the idea is to provide us with a top 25 that we would have selected playoff teams from.
• All calculations are exactly the same as the current Ray's Rankings calculations.
• I will introduce the top 25 in reverse order
• I will compare RR/BCS/AP rankings
• I will provide 3 different playoff scenarios 
• 4 team seeded
• 8 team with conference champions, top G5, and 2 at large, seeded
• 16 team seeded
• We can all have a good laugh at how different things would have been. Or we can all stare slack-jawed in amazement at how closely Ray's Rankings matches human polls.

Pedestrian seasons for these guys, though I hadn't recalled that Cincinnati has been this good for this long.

The Irish always play a tough schedule, and it benefits them in my rankings in the same way not being in a conference championship game hurts them

So, I reversed the Boise/TCU outcome, and Boise made it all the way to...#10

VaTech has had some memorable years in the past decade.

9-3 Sooners at #9. The SRS is pretty stout, and they played a tough schedule.

The Ducks have had a heck of a run. They lost to a very good LSU and a highly motivated USC.

Yawn. Yet another 10-win season for the Wolverines. This was also the only time in the past 20 years that they beat OSU...

Ok Bama Boyz, here's your pain. The Tide simply was not as good as the voters wanted them to be this season.

Pac 12. Strength of schedule. It's real. Go read my post about it. Only an inexplicable loss to Arizona State marred this season for them. What about the other loss? Wait.

We don't need no stinking Badgers! But with Montee Ball and Russell Wilson, Wisky was the real deal in 2011.

One quarter away from #2 probably. Or one decent OT period.

The 1-2 gap is stupid small.

The Cardinal finished just 0.002 ahead of LSU.

Without a CFB playoff committee, I will be using the AP poll prior to bowl games and the final BCS rankings.  Let's check it out:

Ray vs the AP

	AP		RR	Diff
1	LSU	SEC	2	1
2	Alabama	SEC	6	4
3	Oklahoma State	Big 12	3	0
4	Stanford	Pac-12	1	-3
5	USC	Pac-12	5	0
6	Oregon	Pac-12	8	2
7	Arkansas	SEC	13	6
8	Boise State	Mountain West	11	3
9	Wisconsin	Big Ten	4	-5
10	South Carolina	SEC	14	4
11	Kansas State	Big 12	19	8
12	Michigan State	Big Ten	12	0
13	Michigan	Big Ten	7	-6
14	Clemson	ACC	20	6
15	Baylor	Big 12	18	3
16	TCU	Big 12	30	14
17	Virginia Tech	ACC	10	-7
18	Georgia	SEC	15	-3
19	Oklahoma	Big 12	9	-10
20	Houston	American	17	-3
21	Nebraska	Big Ten	23	2
22	Southern Miss	C-USA	27	5
23	West Virginia	Big 12	29	6
24	Penn State	Big Ten	31	7
25	Florida State	ACC	21	-4

What's it all mean? 

Mean	1.200
Variance	29.917
SD	5.470
SEC	2.40
Big Ten	-0.40
Pac-12	-0.33
Big 12	3.50
ACC	-1.67
American	-3.00
Mountain West	3.00

The mean difference is one of the smallest we've seen. The voters got TCU and Oklahoma very wrong, the rest weren't too bad. 

But.

The SEC and Big 12 were still favored by voters more than they should have been, and the ACC was penalized.

Against the BCS? This blew me away:

	BCS		RR	Diff
1	LSU	SEC	2	1
2	Alabama	SEC	6	4
3	Oklahoma State	Big 12	3	0
4	Stanford	Pac-12	1	-3
5	Oregon	Pac-12	8	3
6	Arkansas	SEC	13	7
7	Boise State	Mountain West	11	4
8	Kansas State	Big 12	19	11
9	South Carolina	SEC	14	5
10	Wisconsin	Big Ten	4	-6
11	Virginia Tech	ACC	10	-1
12	Baylor	Big 12	18	6
13	Michigan	Big Ten	7	-6
14	Oklahoma	Big 12	9	-5
15	Clemson	ACC	20	5
16	Georgia	SEC	15	-1
17	Michigan State	Big Ten	12	-5
18	TCU	Big 12	30	12
19	Houston	American	17	-2
20	Nebraska	Big Ten	23	3
21	Southern Miss	C-USA	27	6
22	Penn State	Big Ten	31	9
23	West Virginia	Big 12	29	6
24	Texas	Big 12	22	-2
25	Auburn	SEC	63	38

Auburn. Arkansas. South Carolina. Alabama. The BCS was a friggin SEC lapdog this season.

Mean	3.560
Variance	78.007
SD	8.832
SEC	9.00
Big Ten	-1.00
Pac-12	0.00
Big 12	4.00
ACC	2.00
American	-2.00
Mountain West	4.00

Mean difference is 30% higher. SD is almost 40% higher. And really, look at the average difference by conference. How can anyone rank any conference 9 places higher than they deserve? Gawd the BCS sucked it hard.

4 team playoff. 

Great games, but only 4 teams?

8 Team Playoff

Here's my 8 team seeded. 5 conference champions, top Group of 5 team in  the Top 25 (the Broncos are in!), and the next top ranked at-large teams (USC and Bama here).

Any of these games you'd turn off? Me neither.

16 Team Playoff

Here's my 16 team playoff. Tell me there's a bad game anywhere in here. I dare you.

And my final top 25:

What do you think?