Let's start with the 1v4 matchup and look at offense v defense going all directions. My intuition says that Oklahoma has yet to see an offense as efficient as LSU's, and that LSU is in the same situation. Let's see what the numbers looks like:
OU offense vs LSU defense
LSU's defense will be the #2 ranked total defense and #2 ranked scoring defense that OU faces this year.
We know that Lincoln Riley has a great offensive mind, so I expect to see some fireworks when OU has the ball. We've seen them hang a lot of points on pretty much everyone they've played, and LSU's defense has been slashed by some mediocre teams. This may turn into a track meet. Yes, all the talk was how well LSU's defense has played at the end of the season, but how good were the offenses they played?
LSU defense vs OU offense
By the numbers, OU is the #2 offense LSU will face this year, and the Sooners have Jalen Hurts. But after Alabama, the power of the offenses LSU has faced drops off pretty sharply. OU is probably the stiffest test LSU will face, considering that Tua was not 100% against them.
LSU offense vs OU defense
LSU's O has seen some stout defenses. And while UGA gave them some fits, Auburn was the only team to really hold them back at all. Expect OU to try to mimic that look, but I don't know that the Sooners have the ability.
OU defense vs LSU offense
Again, there was a lot of chatter about how much better the OU defense was this season. Compared to last season, sure, it's a lot better. Would have been difficult to be worse, so not sure the improvement comparison was valid? Anyway, the LSU offense is leaps and bounds ahead of any competition OU has seen.
Let's look at 2 vs 3 now. Again, intuition says that OSU has been and continues to be the best, most complete team all season. The numbers back that up. But to me, Clemson is a total wild card. They have a ton of experience, and many of their players have been on the big stage already. Plus, they're playing very well. My heart says Buckeyes, my brain say it's a pick 'em.
OSU offense vs Clemson defense
Clemson's defense has been the real deal all season. They are beating teams they're supposed to beat by the numbers they're supposed to beat them by. Just checking the numbers, OSU will have to contend with yet another top defense, one that appears to be even better than the UM/PSU/Wisky gauntlet. I am given to understand that the Clemson D-line is a bit undersized, so there may be some wiggle room there?
Clemson defense vs OSU offense
Honestly, Clemson's D had better be for real. OSU will have the best offense Clemson has seen, by far. The Buckeyes score almost 20 points per game more than any other Clemson opponent.
Clemson offense vs OSU defense
Um...OK. Look, we all know that the knock against Clemson this season is SoS. But really, OSU is just on another level entirely from the teams Clemson has faced. I expect that Clemson will have some success. They may have a lot of success, considering how well Wisky moved the ball against them in the 1st half.
OSU defense vs Clemson offense
The Buckeye defense has been amazing all season. We've watched 3 straight teams try to game plan around Chase Young, and while they've been somewhat successful in keeping him in check, they've also allowed the rest of that D-line to take care of business. That said, OSU has yet to face Trevor Lawrence. Clemson will feed the Bucks massive doses of one of the best QBs in the land.
So, what do I think?
LSU is probably just too much for OU, but I expect both teams to score a lot. It could be another Bama game for LSU and Baylor for OU, only these teams are better than Bama or Baylor.
And Clemson is probably a coin flip against OSU. The differences are so small that experience could be the thing that tilts the contest, and that advantage goes to Clemson. Unless we've been right about OSU all year.
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