Ray's Rankings Week 13

I guess the big news of the weekend is OSU having to cancel their game with Illinois due to COVID issues. We know that Day tested positive, but that's about it. The school is trying to stay below B1G thresholds that would lock down the program.

The real issue is now number of games played. If the Buckeyes cannot play MSU or UM, they could possibly be kept out of the B1G championship game, which in turn could jeopardize their shot at the playoff (of course, in my system they haven't played enough games to break into the top 4 anyway).

Which games did you enjoy on Saturday? 

• I think that NC played ND very well, with the Irish athletic advantage showing through in the 4th quarter.
• Iowa State might have hammered the final nail in Tom Herman's coffin.
• Oregon gives up 22 points in the 4th quarter to lose to Oregon State. I watched the end of that one, good stuff.
• Northwestern's QB Ramsey looked awful.
• Mac Jones looked awesome!
• UGA rushed for over 300 yards vs South Carolina, over 200 in the first half. Easiest game of JT Daniels' life.
• How does Harbaugh lose to 0-5 PSU? At home?
• Kiffin over Leach - could be interesting to see what Leach does with the Air Raid with players recruited into it in a couple of years.
• Greg Schiano has Rutgers believing hard!
• UW comes back from 21 down at half to score 24 unanswered and hold the Utes scoreless in the 2nd half.

Here is my current top 25:

You probably noticed the lack of B1G teams near the top. This is what happens when everyone else has played 8 or 9 and you've played 4 or 5. While I think that OSU is one of the top 4 teams in the country (yes, even with their weird defensive issues), I don't get to make that call here. 

Because this is an unusual year, I have given more weight to G5 teams and changed the FCS schools to 0pt for a loss instead of my usual -1pt. This helps Clemson and Cincinnati a lot (BYU too, but not as much).

There were also a lot of games cancelled. This is really getting ugly, and it would not surprise me to see the Pac12 and B1G fail to make the playoff simply because of missed games. I've seen a lot of people say that's a good thing. To those people I say to pull your heads out. I get that you want to see 4 SEC teams in the playoff (or you just hate OSU). There is never a case where less football is better than more football. 

Have you ever looked up how AP pollsters are selected? Check this out: 

https://tinyurl.com/y5xefgas

A key passage:

"...the voters are listed on the AP’s college football website and their selections are made public.

Which, naturally, means criticism from fans who don’t agree with their selection. Some voters face enough grief that they don’t want to return the following season, but otherwise to vote in a poll and have such an influence on the standings of college football is obviously a prestigious honor.

However, in Walker’s case, covering the Southeastern Conference is often a leading factor on being selected to vote in the poll. [emphasis added]

“I want someone looking at good competition,” she said. Hence, a writer covering MTSU may be very talented but probably isn’t going to see many teams eligible for the AP Top 25 in the Sun Belt Conference."

So if you ever wondered why certain conferences always seem to be at the top, here's one solid reason. The AP ensures that voters cover only the conferences they deem to be worthy. God forbid they pick a voter who might be objective.

This is why an objective and completely transparent system is needed for ranking teams. Ya?

Ray's Rankings Week 12

 OK, we're getting deep enough into the season that the system is returning what I'd consider reasonable numbers if we keep in mind some caveats:

1. Some teams are playing essentially any team that will schedule them. This is hurting their rankings even with a high number of wins (BYU, Army just to name a couple)
2. Other teams are hurt by not playing enough games so far. That is unfortunate, but since the system averages it just is what it is.
3. Head to head matchups generally don't matter to the system (other than W/L) unless they have very similar schedules.

So here's my plan for this post. Below are my top 25. I want to break down some obvious strangeness, in detail. This may be a little boring, but it will help me to explain why my system puts certain teams where it does. I won't be getting into the fun games from yesterday (Rutgers-UM, UGA-MissSt, Cincy-UCF stand out off the top of my head).

Let's look at Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. OU wrecked OkSt yesterday, both teams now have 2 losses, OU has one more win, yet the system has OkSt 6 spots ahead of the Sooners still. Why? Intuitively it makes no sense.

A quick refreshers on how we get the rankings:

• There are 1st, 2nd, and 3rd level points
• 1st level points are for winning
• 2nd and 3rd level are for the 1st and 2nd level points of the teams you beat
• There is the SRS score, which is a ranked system that accounts for scoring differential
• Each input is ranked, and the overall position of a team is the average of the weighted rankings (50% for 1st level, 30% for 2nd level, 15% for 3rd level, and 5% for SRS)

That's about it. See my earlier posts to see how points are determined.

1st Level Points

Oklahoma has beaten:

Missouri State for -1pt (remember, you are penalized for playing an FCS school)

Texas 1pt

TCU 1pt

Texas Tech 1pt

Kansas 1pt

OkSt 1pt

Summed and averaged, OU has 0.5000 1st level points

OkSt has beaten:

Tulsa 0.75pt (Group of 5 teams are worth less than Power 5 teams)

WVU 1pt

Kansas 1pt

Iowa State 1pt

Kansas St 1pt

Summed and averaged, OkSt has 0.6786 1st level points

OkSt 1st level points rank 12 spots higher than OU 1st level points

2nd Level Points

These are the 1st level points of the teams you beat.

Oklahoma:

Missouri State 0pt

Texas 4.75pt

TCU 3pt

Texas Tech 1pt

Kansas 0pt

OkSt 4.75pt

Summed, averaged and divided by the number of games played modifier, OU has 0.1350 2nd level points.

OklahomaSt:

Tulsa 3.75pt

WVU 3pt

Kansas 0pt

Iowa State 6pt

Kansas St 4pt

Summed, averaged and divided by the number of games played modifier, OkSt has 0.1682 2nd level points.

The Cowboys' 2nd level points rank 9 spots higher than the Sooners' 2nd level points. It is worth noting that OkSt 2nd level points rank 2nd only to Bama.

3rd Level Points

These are the 2nd level points of the teams you beat.

Oklahoma:

Missouri State 0pt

Texas 8.5pt

TCU 6.5pt

Texas Tech 4pt

Kansas 0pt

OkSt 16.75pt

Summed, averaged and divided by the number of games played modifier, OU has 0.3600 3rd level points.

OklahomaSt:

Tulsa 8pt

WVU 8pt

Kansas 0pt

Iowa State 13pt

Kansas St 8pt

Summed, averaged and divided by the number of games played modifier, OkSt has 0.3715 3rd level points.

OkSt 3rd level points rank 1 spot higher than OU 3rd level points. Both are in the top 6 overall.

SRS

The SRS is derived by game point differentials. I am using the College Football Reference version for now because my version breaks when the number of games are weird.

Oklahoma SRS: 11.54

Oklahoma State SRS: 7.58

OU SRS ranks 12 spots higher than OkSt SRS. Neither are in the top 20.

Conclusion

We see that the Cowboys rank higher in 3 of 4 categories, and the one that OU ranks higher in is the one with the least weight attached. 

First problem for OU is playing an FCS school. Using FCS schools to pad your resume is a no-no in my system, and you get penalized for it. This also goes to strength of schedule, where OkSt is 29th and OU is 71st. Those rankings don't matter for points, they are just indicative of how the 2nd and 3rd level points fall out.

This is also the 2nd problem for OU here. SoS. OU is more than 3 full points behind in 2nd level points. In plain English, overall (and that is key here for my system) the teams OkSt has beaten are better than the teams OU has beaten, even considering the head to head win by OU over OkSt. 

I hope this helps to explain how a team like Clemson at 7-1 can be ranked 11 while a 5-0 Northwestern is ranked 5. Clemson has played the Citadel, and the teams they've beaten are not very good. Northwestern has played no FCS schools and the teams they've beaten are marginally better than the ACC teams Clemson beat. 

Also, while Clemson is 7-1, that one FCS school turns them into a 5 win team here. It doesn't just become a 0, it is actually a -1 for 1st level points. So basically we have a 5-0 Northwestern ranked higher than a 5-1 Clemson, and that starts to make more intuitive sense (and it makes 6-2 OU become 4-2; moral of the story is don't schedule FCS teams).

I'm here. Tell me how stupid I am and how my system sucks and how I don't know football. It's what I get a lot of. But before you do, please read my main post that explains the system in detail and how it is retrodictive and not at all predictive.

Ray's Rankings Week 11

 Well, kind of a boring weekend really, but there were still some fun games to watch. 

• I watched some MAC games - always a good time

• Enjoyed USC-Zona a lot just for the last few minutes

• BC-ND was better than I thought it would be

• I thought VaTech had Miami's number

• Same for Wake and NC

• Cannot believe Penn State is 0-4

• Can totally believe UM is 1-3

• Texas Tech with the comeback win, and Schooler schooling Brewer with the hit of the season so far

As I've said more than once, this season is weird. The number of games played and not played are really creating chaos for those of us who rely on straight math to get it done. 

I've also been asked (very politely, thank you) to explain my No.2 team. So instead of working down each team, here's my Top 25, and below is my breakdown of Northwestern at 2:

How is Northwestern No.2? How did I screw up and end up with Northwestern at No.2?
Games played modifier for 2nd and 3rd level points. Basically, I had the 2nd and 3rd level points totals being divided by numbers far too small for teams with too few games. This elevated the 2nd and 3rd level points too far. Even with weighted averages it was screwing things up enough to push a 4-0 team well ahead of an 8-0 team, which should not happen in general in this system. The exceptions being 8-0 teams who play FCS schools (looking at you, Clemson).

So, new Top 25:

ND did what they needed to do, but I have to say that BC is looking good under Hafley.

Miami keeps finding ways to win.

UF looks beastly right now.

The Heels and Miami are like twins.

Northwestern has really taken advantage of the "jumping into the deep end" season. Fitz might have a really good team this year.

NC State took care of the 'Noles.

IU has the same problem as OSU - their wins are over teams with almost no wins.

How is SJSU over Cincy? Cincy played Austin Peay and lost a 1st level point because of it. Do I think SJSU is a better team? It doesn't matter what I think, that's the whole point of my system!

So, what do you think?

Ray's Rankings Week 10

I feel like I'm being influenced by opinions instead of just letting my numbers fly. I have to keep messing with my calculations because of the weird schedules this season, and every time I do I get an unexpected result. That really shouldn't surprise me, but sometimes it still does. So here's the deal: I'm back to the original premise of 1st, 2nd, 3rd level points with a scoring modifier in the SRS. You must have played 3 or more games to be considered (sorry Wisky and Purdue). And yes, number of games played confers an advantage. As it should.

Also, I am working on some artwork. For now, I'll have to be a little more plain with the reverse rankings stuff - not like what came before was anything special, right?

What a spectacular weekend of college football! I can only assume that starting out of the gate with in-conference play has allowed teams that usually struggle early to surprise teams that usually coast early?

Let's start with possibly the strangest game of the weekend: UT v WVa. I did not watch enough of this game, but it sure looks like 2 Big12 teams playing *gasp* defense!

I did watch USC v ASU until it was clear that USC had fallen on their faces again. 

Doh! 

Of course, while USC was completing that completely unexpected comeback, I was watching Liberty v VaTech. I will never understand why coaches second guess themselves. And has "icing" a kicker ever worked? That was the most ridiculous ending I've seen in forever. And what the heck was Fuente thinking calling "prevent" D when he needed to stop a FG? Boneheaded errors have cost coaches their jobs before.

And what the heck is going on in the B1G?? Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling! Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes. The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria! I think tomorrow we find Jim Harbaugh looking for work.

And of course, ND-Clemson. One of those rare gems of a regular season game that lives up to the hype.

Crazy weekend. Loved every minute of it (except Boise getting hammered).

Let's go!

No.25 Boston College avoids the letdown after letting Clemson off the hook. Hafley is doing a great job so far.

No.24 UVa riding their win over North Carolina, off this week

No.23 Arkansas at 3-3, pretty amazing really and they should be 4-2!

No.22 TCU at 3-3 beating an always dangerous Texas Tech

No.21 VaTech lost to Liberty. I mean, Liberty!

No.20 San Jose State at 3-0! My wife's alma mater! It's a friggin commuter school, for Pete's sake!

No.19 Wake Forrest winners of 4 in a row including wins over UVa, VaTech, and NC State

No.18 Kansas State lost to OkSt in another weird, low scoring Big 12 game. Probably should have won that one.

No.17 Ohio State Welcome B1G! OSU has let 3 bad teams score too many points. I mean, Rutgers won the 2nd half yesterday!

No.16 NC State lost a close one to Miami (FL)

No.15 Indiana. Yes, Indiana. You know, the Indiana that hasn't beaten UM since 1987. That Indiana. They stomped the Wolverines.

No.14 Texas is...5-2! The inconsistency of this team is ridiculous.

No.13 Oklahoma is also 5-2, and they brought the pain to Les Miles yesterday!

No.12 Auburn should be 3-3. That is all.

No.11 Iowa State needing a come back to beat a confusing Baylor team. Did a good job to shut down that O in the 2nd half.

No.10 Northwestern. No, my algorithm isn't broken. The Wildcats have beaten better teams than OSU and Indiana have beaten.

No.9 Texas A&M at 5-1. I feel like they should be higher, but here we are.

No.8 Miami (FL) edged a good NC State team to reach 6-1

No.7 North Carolina at 5-2. It's all about the body of work and who you play.

No.6 Oklahoma St at 5-1 had to work against KState! And Hubbard is having a seriously off year. 

No.5 UGA without a clear leader at QB. Why in the world are they not playing JT Daniels? Kirby Not So Smart maybe? They got whupped by UF

No.4 Notre Dame is lacking the 2nd and 3rd level points of the top 3, so here they sit. Great win against Clemson, though. Very exciting game!

No.3 Florida with Kyle Trask is the real deal, but I do wonder what would UGA have done with Daniels

No.2 Clemson still here even with the loss. It's all about the 2nd and 3rd level points.

No.1 Bama

So there are Ray's Rankings Top 25 for Week 10 of the COVID season. What do you think?

Ray's Rankings Week 9 2020

Well, this was a pretty great weekend of college football! Unfortunately I spent most of Saturday performing a physical inventory at work so I missed all the early games. We did start watching Clemson-BC on our phones, and I have to say that if the voters don't drop Clemson it'll just be more evidence of adherence to ancient, ridiculous "tradition" of not dropping a team for winning. And before you go on about "back up quarterback," I give you 2014 Ohio State. "Backup quarterback" can never be used as an excuse for not wrecking the competition.

Anyway, I think we all knew Dabo would figure it out for the 2nd half. 

My favorite game was definitely Texas-OkSt. Every time I think Tom Herman is about to lose his job, he pulls off something like this. Of course, overtime would not have been needed had UT not dropped into "prevent" defense. As John Madden once said, "All a prevent defense does is prevent you from winning."

Maryland-Minnesota was pretty great, too. Tagovailoa looked like a completely different player from last week. And I know that PJ Fleck has to be disappointed. Last season really felt like a breakthrough for the Gophers.

Ditto for Iowa. I don't know if Northwestern is good of Iowa is just falling on their face?

I don't understand Kirby Smart. Ol' Stetson was abysmal and he refuses to make a change. Either JT Daniels is more injured than we know, or Smart is being dumb. Yes, UGA won but really: 14 points against Kentucky?

Then there was this:

It didn't matter, but lots of fun!

"Little brother" beats "big brother" in the Big House. Only other MSu coach to do that first try? Nick Saban. That said, I'm pretty sure Saban didn't do it coming off a loss to Rutgers.

While I do believe that North Carolina is over hyped and over ranked, and they did lose to a UVA of questionable strength, my algorithm puts them where they go. From what I saw, they didn't look bad and had a pretty good 2nd half.

So here we go:

While Arkansas lost this weekend, they are still looking much better than I've seen in years!

Virginia did what they needed to do, Oklahoma won big, and Texas pulled off the upset.

Iowa State bounces back.

Well, the Irish have their chance to step up in the ACC. OkSt might become the next 1 loss team in the playoff.

Well, Mac Jones is having a very special season! And I know that Clemson is still Clemson.

Next week I add B1G and MWC. So, what do you think?