Latest Rankings

How Ray’s Rankings are achieved:

My system is based on the Ohio State High School Football playoff calculator (and I'm sure other states use the same or similar methods). You get awarded points for beating teams, and you get points for the points your defeated opponents have (and one more level beyond that). There is also a margin of victory modifier call the Simple Ranking System. Also, I penalize FBS teams for playing FCS schools.

• 1st Level - Teams earn 1pt for each Power 5 victory, 0.5pt for beating a Group of 5 team, and are penalized -1pt for every FCS team destroyed. These are then averaged, with a games played modifier. This score is then ranked. Also the 1st tiebreaker. You lose zero points for a loss, except you lose 2pts for losing to an FCS school.
  
• 2nd Level - 1st level points of the opponents you beat (basically points from your opponents' opponents), average them with a modifier for off/bye weeks or shorter schedules. So if the teams you beat beat more P5 schools, the more points you earn than if they lose or beat only Group of 5 for FCS schools. This is also the 2nd tiebreaker.
• 3rd Level - 2nd level points of the opponents you beat, averaged for games played. 3rd tiebreaker.
• SRS - Simple Ranking System scores. It is basically a measure of the Adjusted Point Differential used in predicting NBA and NFL games, only applied to CFB. Ranked, and the final tiebreaker
• See here for the explanation. 

Add up the scores and the best is No.1

Still a work in progress. (Soon to be) New for 2021 (I hope)!

I've wanted to find a simple way to account for "quality" wins and losses from the start, but it needed to be 1) mathematical in nature, and 2) not screw up my way too complicated spreadsheets. I believe I've found a way, and I will be implementing it this season. I'm starting small: you know that if you're a D1 school and you play a D2 school, you get penalized for taking a bye week and calling it a win. Well, I figured out how to penalize you double if you lose to that D2 school without breaking my sheets. As we go, I'll work out how to penalize and reward teams for losing to lower ranked or beating higher ranked teams.I thought I had it, but adding week 3 games broke it again. It may not be possible with Google sheets.

As I've explained from the start, my system is retrodictive, not predictive. So, here's Ray's Rankings in week 8 of 2021:

Ray's Rankings 2020 Playoff Selection Post

Hiya folks! So, I missed basically every game yesterday. My daughter was wrestling (she went 2-0 with 2 pins) and it was senior day so we didn't get home until late, and by then I was wiped out. I saw some of the SJSU-Boise game, including an SJSU commercial. I used to live San Jose, and my wife graduated from SJSU. It's a commuter school. Basically a glorified community college. With a commercial, like they're a B1G school trying to entice undecided high schoolers. It was weird.

Anyway, today is the big Power 5 Invitational show! We get to watch the committee ignore past performance and just pick the teams that will draw the most ad dollars. 

11:30am EST: I predict Bama, Clemson, OSU, A&M. ND and UF first teams out. Maybe UGA in place of UF.

Whatever.

Here are my top 25, in reverse order, along with my 4, 8, and 16 team playoff brackets:

#24 (tie) BYU - The Cougars had a good season, but they were seriously hampered by playing only G5 and FCS schools. Not their fault; their original schedule was a very tough one. And then losing to Coastal Carolina. 

#24 (tie) USC - The Trojans just plain ran out of luck against an OK Oregon. They have a lot of talent, but maybe Helton isn't the right guy? I don't want to be That Guy and pile on the "get rind of Helton" bandwagon; maybe the problem is Slovis? I don't know. Maybe this is where Malzahn lands?

#23 Auburn - at 6-4, a very pedestrian year, but Auburn has been very good for a long time. Why dump Malzahn now unless they have someone special already lined up?

#22 VaTech - 5-6 and ahead of Auburn? That just how the system works. Some good wins and baffling losses. It happens.

#21 TCU - Gary Patterson does it again. He is on the same level as Fitzy at Northwestern to me: doing more with less every season.

#19 (tie) Texas - Look, I like Tom Herman. I think he's a very good coach. I am excited to see what he does without Ehlinger as a crutch. But maybe he needs to learn to be more of a CEO (thanks, Urban) and less hands on.

#19 (tie) Northwestern - Speaking of Fitzy, Northwestern had a very USC-like season: barely winning, but winning none the less. I'm a big fan of the program. But really, allowing Preacher Man to hang 320+ rushing yards on you? Ouch.

#18 NC State - 8-3 with some solid wins. I feel like they've been overlooked by everyone.

#17 Iowa - Stumbled out of the gate but finished strong. Must have figured something out there after Northwestern.

#16 UL-Lafayette - The Ragin' Cajuns lol! Probably known best for their pretty awesome softball team, at 9-1 they managed to break into the top 25.

#15 Cincinnati - Anyone else think that Auburn called Fickell right after getting hung up on by Urban Meyer? 9-0 and ready for what comes next. I think not blowing out Tulsa probably hurt them with the committee, but they were never getting in anyway.

#14 Indiana - I won't say they had an unexpected season because we've seen indications of improvement for a while.

#13 Oklahoma State - The Cowboys had a couple of opportunities to have a special season. Wheels sort of fell off at the end.

#12 Coastal Carolina - 11-0 with a signature win over BYU. Who knew?

#11 Florida - That 3rd loss hurt. Does Trask come back?

#10 North Carolina - The Heels had an excellent season and played everyone tough.

#9 Texas A&M - 8-1, but hurt by low 2nd level points. Everyone who screams about weak conferences needs to look at all of the conferences.

#8 Oklahoma - Had some bad losses but really clawed their way back up the ranks. Lincoln Riley is really good for the Sooners.

#7 Georgia - I've already speculated how much the UGA faithful wish JT Daniels had started the season. Not going to rehash it here.

#6 Iowa State - Yes, 8-3 at #6. The wins were all pretty good. The loss to UL-Laf probably hurts the worst.

#5 Ohio State - Sorry, Buckeye fans. You have to play more than 6 games when everyone else around you is playing 9 or more.

#4 Miami (FL) - The Canes have gotten so little love this season, and the blowout loss to NC didn't help with that whole eye test thing. Luckily, we don't do eye test here.

#3 Notre Dame - 10 wins over 9 P5 schools including a TL-less Clemson. Yes, they got smoked my Clemson yesterday. I wonder if it happens again?

#2 Clemson - Another 10 win P5 school, and the win over ND really helped their 2nd level points.

#1 Alabama - Simply the best team in the country right now. They have been from day 1.

4 team playoff? 

Meh. Miami could be fun, but 4 teams just ain't enough.

This is much more like it. Straight seeded.

How about my usual Power 5 champs, top Group of 5, and 2 at large?

I don't really feel that Oregon has done the work, but this is what happens if we give conference champs automatic bids.

How about a real playoff? remember, 1st 2 rounds are home games!

How much more fun would this be? We've got 3 "lower tier" teams ready to play, great home field advantages (anyone for football in South Bend or Columbus in the dead of winter?), and much more satisfying matchups.

Anyway, this is how I think we ought to be doing it. 4 teams is a joke, has been from the start. 8 teams is still too exclusive. 16 is good. It works. It gives smaller programs opportunities. It's the right thing to do.

Ray's Rankings Week 15

I guess the "regular season is done. The weekend started out pretty pedestrian and ended with some fun football. Too many cancellations, but that's where we are. Of all the lost games, losing OSU-UM is the worst, in my opinion. Whether or not you care for the B1G, losing a huge rivalry game is bad for the sport.

I have to say this - I have no idea why Kirby Smart waited so long to get JT Daniels on the field. I figure by now every single Bulldog Nation fan, player, and coach are wondering "what if" along with the rest of us. Next season, JT vs Bryce Young will be a fun battle to watch. Would not surprise me to see Daniels win the Heisman.

Weird things have happened this season, and Wisconsin has been bitten. Iowa seems to have righted the ship at the Badgers' expense. Wisky did not look good.

Northwestern ran all over Illinois and have the dubious honor of facing the Buckeyes in Indiana. I like Fitz - they guy does so much with a school that is not "win at all costs" and occasionally has a really good team. Unfortunately, unless OSU is missing all of their scholarship players I can't see the Buckeyes losing.

I'm pretty sure I'm the only one who has been talking about North Carolina this season. Everyone is so hung up on wins and losses and head to head like it matters more than body of work. Miami is a good football team and they got destroyed yesterday. Now, anyone can have an off day. It happens. Ask the Buckeyes. But when you allow a 300 yard rusher and a 230 yard rusher on the same day? North Carolina is the best 3 loss team in the country.

I honestly expected UF to pretty much wreck LSU. The fact that it was close all game is a testament to Coach O getting his team ready to play. And the end of the game. Wow. I laughed til I was in tears when the ref called it: "...throwing the other player's shoe 20 yards down the field." And it turns out that throwing another player's shoe can cost you the game. A great 57 yard field goal for LSU and a just barely missed it 50 yarder for UF was a perfectly chaotic ending. I don't think it will matter if UF beats Bama next week, they're out of the playoff.

So what about the Pac12? Well, USC may be the scariest team in the country. 5-0 may not seem intimidating, but 3 of those wins should have been losses. The Trojans just find ways to win at the last possible moment. St. Brown with another TD catch. You know he went to the same high school at JT Daniels and Bryce Young, right? And Eli Ricks at LSU. Mater Dei HS out of Santa Ana. 

Championship week coming up. I'm looking forward to all of the games, really. Here's a possible scenario: ND beats Clemson again, Bama trashes UF, and Cincinnati smashes Tulsa. Now what does the committee do? Do they put the undefeated Bearcats in ahead of A&M? That would certainly put let the fox into the henhouse lol!

Here's my Top 25 for week 15. Miami is still ranked pretty high, but the Heels really jumped up and Iowa State moves into the top 4!

Ray's Rankings Week 14

 Hi folks!

This week I'm going to do something a little different and spend some time on comparing inputs and how they affect the rankings.

Before we dive in, though, let's talk about some football! Lots of fun games yesterday; I tried to watch as many as I could. I just changed from Hulu Live back to YouTube TV because of Hulu's price increase, and it's easier to keep up on scores on YT.

My few takeaways from the weekend:

• Alabama may be unbeatable. The deeper I dig the fewer weaknesses I see. Yes, they've only been punched in the face once by Ole Miss, but that didn't seem to matter.
• Oklahoma has been playing defense. So weird to see. 
• The wheels have fallen off in Eugene. It may walk like a Duck and quack like a Duck, but it plays football like an albatross.
• UW let themselves get into a deep hole and this time couldn't climb out.
• Clemson looks less dominant than last year even with that 45-10 win.
• Ditto OSU, even as well as they played against MSU. Of course, they were missing 23 players and their head coach so maybe I'm wrong about them?
• And every Indiana win makes OSU look better.
• ND is still playing very solid football. They don't look special, but they keep doing their thing.
• I knew that TCU was going to do that! Sleep on Gary Patterson at your own risk. 

The one really fun game was BYU v Coastal Carolina on that high school field under middle school lights. The Chanticleers looked the biz with that read option played to perfection. Zach Wilson just shut up everyone clamoring for his Heisman campaign. Sorry, Cougars, this isn't 1984.

Top 25

Right now my biggest question is this: how good/bad are Group of 5 teams in general? Last year I treated them as basically half as good. If you beat a G5 school, you got 0.5pt. This season I've been making a lot of changes along those lines, but I don't really know what the right answer is. I mean, there's simply no way to argue that beating Cincinnati should be worth less than beating Syracuse this season, but that's just this season. Same with beating Clemson vs beating FIU; they're just not equal. 

My opinion is that an average P5 or G5 team beating a P5 team is generally more difficult than beating a G5 team. Is it half again as difficult? 25% more difficult? Again, I'm looking for an average here. Boise v OU in 2007 clarified a lot of things for us as far as G5 schools go. Yes, they can play with anyone. Yes, we need to consider that they are better than we usually think.

So let's play with the numbers. This first list is the algorithm from last season: 1pt for P5, 0.5pt for G5, -1pt for FCS.

Note that Clemson is hurt most by playing FCS schools. This is the way I will go back to ranking next season. Teams that play FCS schools are benefitting from a bye week being counted as a win, and I find that unacceptable.

How about if I don't subtract points for FCS schools? I'll just count them as 0pts. It's still a penalty, but not as bad.

And there's Clemson back in the top 4. Cincinnati breaks into the top 25. OK, what if we count G5 schools as 75% as good as P5? G5 at 0.75pt, FCS still at 0pt.

Well, Miami really jumps up. Cincy is up to 16, and please welcome Tulsa, SJSU, and BYU. 

This is all well and good, but what if we treat G5 as equal to P5? This part gets interesting. All P5 and G5 wins are 1pt, FSC still 0 pts.

Well, well, well. Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Tulsa, SJSU, BYU, UL-Laf, UCF, Nevada all crashing the P5 party. I can hear you now: "San Jose State? They'd lose by 100pts to Oklahoma!" Maybe. Maybe they do a Boise State.

Let's try one more. We'll go ahead and count FCS wins as just a 1pt win.

Gotta admit that it was hard to type for a bit there. Tears of laughter filled my eyes; couldn't see the screen! Can you imagine?

There's a lesson here. Let's go back to the 1984 CFB season when a truly undeserving BYU was crowned national champ by voters who couldn't pull their heads out long enough to check schedules. The Cougars finished 13-0, but they played no teams with less than 4 losses. Their bowl win over a 6-6 UM in the Holiday Bowl didn't help. Meanwhile, UW had one loss to USC and beat OU in the Orange Bowl to finish #2. That particular travesty is what happens when you let people vote for these things, and that is what would happen if my system treated all wins equally. 

Not all wins are equal. Neither are all losses. So let's get back to where we ought to be. Wins are 1pt for P5, 0.75pt for G5, 0pt for FCS; losses are 0pt for P5, -0.25 for G5, and -1 for FCS.

The super surprise to me is Cincinnati, but only until I realize that they did play Austin Peay. 

I kind of like this setup for now. Somewhere in the near future I am going to download the last 20 years of games played, sort them by conferences, and measure the P5-G5 matchups to see how it actually plays out. Until then, enjoy the weirdness!

Ray's Rankings Week 13

I guess the big news of the weekend is OSU having to cancel their game with Illinois due to COVID issues. We know that Day tested positive, but that's about it. The school is trying to stay below B1G thresholds that would lock down the program.

The real issue is now number of games played. If the Buckeyes cannot play MSU or UM, they could possibly be kept out of the B1G championship game, which in turn could jeopardize their shot at the playoff (of course, in my system they haven't played enough games to break into the top 4 anyway).

Which games did you enjoy on Saturday? 

• I think that NC played ND very well, with the Irish athletic advantage showing through in the 4th quarter.
• Iowa State might have hammered the final nail in Tom Herman's coffin.
• Oregon gives up 22 points in the 4th quarter to lose to Oregon State. I watched the end of that one, good stuff.
• Northwestern's QB Ramsey looked awful.
• Mac Jones looked awesome!
• UGA rushed for over 300 yards vs South Carolina, over 200 in the first half. Easiest game of JT Daniels' life.
• How does Harbaugh lose to 0-5 PSU? At home?
• Kiffin over Leach - could be interesting to see what Leach does with the Air Raid with players recruited into it in a couple of years.
• Greg Schiano has Rutgers believing hard!
• UW comes back from 21 down at half to score 24 unanswered and hold the Utes scoreless in the 2nd half.

Here is my current top 25:

You probably noticed the lack of B1G teams near the top. This is what happens when everyone else has played 8 or 9 and you've played 4 or 5. While I think that OSU is one of the top 4 teams in the country (yes, even with their weird defensive issues), I don't get to make that call here. 

Because this is an unusual year, I have given more weight to G5 teams and changed the FCS schools to 0pt for a loss instead of my usual -1pt. This helps Clemson and Cincinnati a lot (BYU too, but not as much).

There were also a lot of games cancelled. This is really getting ugly, and it would not surprise me to see the Pac12 and B1G fail to make the playoff simply because of missed games. I've seen a lot of people say that's a good thing. To those people I say to pull your heads out. I get that you want to see 4 SEC teams in the playoff (or you just hate OSU). There is never a case where less football is better than more football. 

Have you ever looked up how AP pollsters are selected? Check this out: 

https://tinyurl.com/y5xefgas

A key passage:

"...the voters are listed on the AP’s college football website and their selections are made public.

Which, naturally, means criticism from fans who don’t agree with their selection. Some voters face enough grief that they don’t want to return the following season, but otherwise to vote in a poll and have such an influence on the standings of college football is obviously a prestigious honor.

However, in Walker’s case, covering the Southeastern Conference is often a leading factor on being selected to vote in the poll. [emphasis added]

“I want someone looking at good competition,” she said. Hence, a writer covering MTSU may be very talented but probably isn’t going to see many teams eligible for the AP Top 25 in the Sun Belt Conference."

So if you ever wondered why certain conferences always seem to be at the top, here's one solid reason. The AP ensures that voters cover only the conferences they deem to be worthy. God forbid they pick a voter who might be objective.

This is why an objective and completely transparent system is needed for ranking teams. Ya?

Ray's Rankings Week 12

 OK, we're getting deep enough into the season that the system is returning what I'd consider reasonable numbers if we keep in mind some caveats:

1. Some teams are playing essentially any team that will schedule them. This is hurting their rankings even with a high number of wins (BYU, Army just to name a couple)
2. Other teams are hurt by not playing enough games so far. That is unfortunate, but since the system averages it just is what it is.
3. Head to head matchups generally don't matter to the system (other than W/L) unless they have very similar schedules.

So here's my plan for this post. Below are my top 25. I want to break down some obvious strangeness, in detail. This may be a little boring, but it will help me to explain why my system puts certain teams where it does. I won't be getting into the fun games from yesterday (Rutgers-UM, UGA-MissSt, Cincy-UCF stand out off the top of my head).

Let's look at Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. OU wrecked OkSt yesterday, both teams now have 2 losses, OU has one more win, yet the system has OkSt 6 spots ahead of the Sooners still. Why? Intuitively it makes no sense.

A quick refreshers on how we get the rankings:

• There are 1st, 2nd, and 3rd level points
• 1st level points are for winning
• 2nd and 3rd level are for the 1st and 2nd level points of the teams you beat
• There is the SRS score, which is a ranked system that accounts for scoring differential
• Each input is ranked, and the overall position of a team is the average of the weighted rankings (50% for 1st level, 30% for 2nd level, 15% for 3rd level, and 5% for SRS)

That's about it. See my earlier posts to see how points are determined.

1st Level Points

Oklahoma has beaten:

Missouri State for -1pt (remember, you are penalized for playing an FCS school)

Texas 1pt

TCU 1pt

Texas Tech 1pt

Kansas 1pt

OkSt 1pt

Summed and averaged, OU has 0.5000 1st level points

OkSt has beaten:

Tulsa 0.75pt (Group of 5 teams are worth less than Power 5 teams)

WVU 1pt

Kansas 1pt

Iowa State 1pt

Kansas St 1pt

Summed and averaged, OkSt has 0.6786 1st level points

OkSt 1st level points rank 12 spots higher than OU 1st level points

2nd Level Points

These are the 1st level points of the teams you beat.

Oklahoma:

Missouri State 0pt

Texas 4.75pt

TCU 3pt

Texas Tech 1pt

Kansas 0pt

OkSt 4.75pt

Summed, averaged and divided by the number of games played modifier, OU has 0.1350 2nd level points.

OklahomaSt:

Tulsa 3.75pt

WVU 3pt

Kansas 0pt

Iowa State 6pt

Kansas St 4pt

Summed, averaged and divided by the number of games played modifier, OkSt has 0.1682 2nd level points.

The Cowboys' 2nd level points rank 9 spots higher than the Sooners' 2nd level points. It is worth noting that OkSt 2nd level points rank 2nd only to Bama.

3rd Level Points

These are the 2nd level points of the teams you beat.

Oklahoma:

Missouri State 0pt

Texas 8.5pt

TCU 6.5pt

Texas Tech 4pt

Kansas 0pt

OkSt 16.75pt

Summed, averaged and divided by the number of games played modifier, OU has 0.3600 3rd level points.

OklahomaSt:

Tulsa 8pt

WVU 8pt

Kansas 0pt

Iowa State 13pt

Kansas St 8pt

Summed, averaged and divided by the number of games played modifier, OkSt has 0.3715 3rd level points.

OkSt 3rd level points rank 1 spot higher than OU 3rd level points. Both are in the top 6 overall.

SRS

The SRS is derived by game point differentials. I am using the College Football Reference version for now because my version breaks when the number of games are weird.

Oklahoma SRS: 11.54

Oklahoma State SRS: 7.58

OU SRS ranks 12 spots higher than OkSt SRS. Neither are in the top 20.

Conclusion

We see that the Cowboys rank higher in 3 of 4 categories, and the one that OU ranks higher in is the one with the least weight attached. 

First problem for OU is playing an FCS school. Using FCS schools to pad your resume is a no-no in my system, and you get penalized for it. This also goes to strength of schedule, where OkSt is 29th and OU is 71st. Those rankings don't matter for points, they are just indicative of how the 2nd and 3rd level points fall out.

This is also the 2nd problem for OU here. SoS. OU is more than 3 full points behind in 2nd level points. In plain English, overall (and that is key here for my system) the teams OkSt has beaten are better than the teams OU has beaten, even considering the head to head win by OU over OkSt. 

I hope this helps to explain how a team like Clemson at 7-1 can be ranked 11 while a 5-0 Northwestern is ranked 5. Clemson has played the Citadel, and the teams they've beaten are not very good. Northwestern has played no FCS schools and the teams they've beaten are marginally better than the ACC teams Clemson beat. 

Also, while Clemson is 7-1, that one FCS school turns them into a 5 win team here. It doesn't just become a 0, it is actually a -1 for 1st level points. So basically we have a 5-0 Northwestern ranked higher than a 5-1 Clemson, and that starts to make more intuitive sense (and it makes 6-2 OU become 4-2; moral of the story is don't schedule FCS teams).

I'm here. Tell me how stupid I am and how my system sucks and how I don't know football. It's what I get a lot of. But before you do, please read my main post that explains the system in detail and how it is retrodictive and not at all predictive.

Ray's Rankings Week 11

 Well, kind of a boring weekend really, but there were still some fun games to watch. 

• I watched some MAC games - always a good time

• Enjoyed USC-Zona a lot just for the last few minutes

• BC-ND was better than I thought it would be

• I thought VaTech had Miami's number

• Same for Wake and NC

• Cannot believe Penn State is 0-4

• Can totally believe UM is 1-3

• Texas Tech with the comeback win, and Schooler schooling Brewer with the hit of the season so far

As I've said more than once, this season is weird. The number of games played and not played are really creating chaos for those of us who rely on straight math to get it done. 

I've also been asked (very politely, thank you) to explain my No.2 team. So instead of working down each team, here's my Top 25, and below is my breakdown of Northwestern at 2:

How is Northwestern No.2? How did I screw up and end up with Northwestern at No.2?
Games played modifier for 2nd and 3rd level points. Basically, I had the 2nd and 3rd level points totals being divided by numbers far too small for teams with too few games. This elevated the 2nd and 3rd level points too far. Even with weighted averages it was screwing things up enough to push a 4-0 team well ahead of an 8-0 team, which should not happen in general in this system. The exceptions being 8-0 teams who play FCS schools (looking at you, Clemson).

So, new Top 25:

ND did what they needed to do, but I have to say that BC is looking good under Hafley.

Miami keeps finding ways to win.

UF looks beastly right now.

The Heels and Miami are like twins.

Northwestern has really taken advantage of the "jumping into the deep end" season. Fitz might have a really good team this year.

NC State took care of the 'Noles.

IU has the same problem as OSU - their wins are over teams with almost no wins.

How is SJSU over Cincy? Cincy played Austin Peay and lost a 1st level point because of it. Do I think SJSU is a better team? It doesn't matter what I think, that's the whole point of my system!

So, what do you think?

Ray's Rankings Week 10

I feel like I'm being influenced by opinions instead of just letting my numbers fly. I have to keep messing with my calculations because of the weird schedules this season, and every time I do I get an unexpected result. That really shouldn't surprise me, but sometimes it still does. So here's the deal: I'm back to the original premise of 1st, 2nd, 3rd level points with a scoring modifier in the SRS. You must have played 3 or more games to be considered (sorry Wisky and Purdue). And yes, number of games played confers an advantage. As it should.

Also, I am working on some artwork. For now, I'll have to be a little more plain with the reverse rankings stuff - not like what came before was anything special, right?

What a spectacular weekend of college football! I can only assume that starting out of the gate with in-conference play has allowed teams that usually struggle early to surprise teams that usually coast early?

Let's start with possibly the strangest game of the weekend: UT v WVa. I did not watch enough of this game, but it sure looks like 2 Big12 teams playing *gasp* defense!

I did watch USC v ASU until it was clear that USC had fallen on their faces again. 

Doh! 

Of course, while USC was completing that completely unexpected comeback, I was watching Liberty v VaTech. I will never understand why coaches second guess themselves. And has "icing" a kicker ever worked? That was the most ridiculous ending I've seen in forever. And what the heck was Fuente thinking calling "prevent" D when he needed to stop a FG? Boneheaded errors have cost coaches their jobs before.

And what the heck is going on in the B1G?? Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling! Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes. The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria! I think tomorrow we find Jim Harbaugh looking for work.

And of course, ND-Clemson. One of those rare gems of a regular season game that lives up to the hype.

Crazy weekend. Loved every minute of it (except Boise getting hammered).

Let's go!

No.25 Boston College avoids the letdown after letting Clemson off the hook. Hafley is doing a great job so far.

No.24 UVa riding their win over North Carolina, off this week

No.23 Arkansas at 3-3, pretty amazing really and they should be 4-2!

No.22 TCU at 3-3 beating an always dangerous Texas Tech

No.21 VaTech lost to Liberty. I mean, Liberty!

No.20 San Jose State at 3-0! My wife's alma mater! It's a friggin commuter school, for Pete's sake!

No.19 Wake Forrest winners of 4 in a row including wins over UVa, VaTech, and NC State

No.18 Kansas State lost to OkSt in another weird, low scoring Big 12 game. Probably should have won that one.

No.17 Ohio State Welcome B1G! OSU has let 3 bad teams score too many points. I mean, Rutgers won the 2nd half yesterday!

No.16 NC State lost a close one to Miami (FL)

No.15 Indiana. Yes, Indiana. You know, the Indiana that hasn't beaten UM since 1987. That Indiana. They stomped the Wolverines.

No.14 Texas is...5-2! The inconsistency of this team is ridiculous.

No.13 Oklahoma is also 5-2, and they brought the pain to Les Miles yesterday!

No.12 Auburn should be 3-3. That is all.

No.11 Iowa State needing a come back to beat a confusing Baylor team. Did a good job to shut down that O in the 2nd half.

No.10 Northwestern. No, my algorithm isn't broken. The Wildcats have beaten better teams than OSU and Indiana have beaten.

No.9 Texas A&M at 5-1. I feel like they should be higher, but here we are.

No.8 Miami (FL) edged a good NC State team to reach 6-1

No.7 North Carolina at 5-2. It's all about the body of work and who you play.

No.6 Oklahoma St at 5-1 had to work against KState! And Hubbard is having a seriously off year. 

No.5 UGA without a clear leader at QB. Why in the world are they not playing JT Daniels? Kirby Not So Smart maybe? They got whupped by UF

No.4 Notre Dame is lacking the 2nd and 3rd level points of the top 3, so here they sit. Great win against Clemson, though. Very exciting game!

No.3 Florida with Kyle Trask is the real deal, but I do wonder what would UGA have done with Daniels

No.2 Clemson still here even with the loss. It's all about the 2nd and 3rd level points.

No.1 Bama

So there are Ray's Rankings Top 25 for Week 10 of the COVID season. What do you think?

Ray's Rankings Week 9 2020

Well, this was a pretty great weekend of college football! Unfortunately I spent most of Saturday performing a physical inventory at work so I missed all the early games. We did start watching Clemson-BC on our phones, and I have to say that if the voters don't drop Clemson it'll just be more evidence of adherence to ancient, ridiculous "tradition" of not dropping a team for winning. And before you go on about "back up quarterback," I give you 2014 Ohio State. "Backup quarterback" can never be used as an excuse for not wrecking the competition.

Anyway, I think we all knew Dabo would figure it out for the 2nd half. 

My favorite game was definitely Texas-OkSt. Every time I think Tom Herman is about to lose his job, he pulls off something like this. Of course, overtime would not have been needed had UT not dropped into "prevent" defense. As John Madden once said, "All a prevent defense does is prevent you from winning."

Maryland-Minnesota was pretty great, too. Tagovailoa looked like a completely different player from last week. And I know that PJ Fleck has to be disappointed. Last season really felt like a breakthrough for the Gophers.

Ditto for Iowa. I don't know if Northwestern is good of Iowa is just falling on their face?

I don't understand Kirby Smart. Ol' Stetson was abysmal and he refuses to make a change. Either JT Daniels is more injured than we know, or Smart is being dumb. Yes, UGA won but really: 14 points against Kentucky?

Then there was this:

It didn't matter, but lots of fun!

"Little brother" beats "big brother" in the Big House. Only other MSu coach to do that first try? Nick Saban. That said, I'm pretty sure Saban didn't do it coming off a loss to Rutgers.

While I do believe that North Carolina is over hyped and over ranked, and they did lose to a UVA of questionable strength, my algorithm puts them where they go. From what I saw, they didn't look bad and had a pretty good 2nd half.

So here we go:

While Arkansas lost this weekend, they are still looking much better than I've seen in years!

Virginia did what they needed to do, Oklahoma won big, and Texas pulled off the upset.

Iowa State bounces back.

Well, the Irish have their chance to step up in the ACC. OkSt might become the next 1 loss team in the playoff.

Well, Mac Jones is having a very special season! And I know that Clemson is still Clemson.

Next week I add B1G and MWC. So, what do you think?

Ray's Rankings Week 8 2020

So the B1G and MWC have finally joined the party! More football! I watched a lot of B1G games on Saturday and was not disappointed. The IU-PSU game was ridiculous. At one point the Nittany Lions were down 17-7 having out gained UI 3-1 in total yards. And that finish! Anyway, my top 25 will not include any B1G or MWC teams until they have at least 3 games in. Otherwise it just breaks my spreadsheet. So you B1G and MWC lovers will have to wait a bit.

Still weirdness going on in the rankings. Gotta be honest, not really sure how AF got here.

Yes, Oklahoma is still in the top 25. Remember, I'm still working on my methodology for rewards and punishments for rank differences. Why is ND this low? All of the teams they've played are really bad.

The gators are here because they've only played 3.

This whole season is weird, and my rankings are strange because of it. A&M is hanging tight, but I still don't know about ol' Jimbo.

The Heels are without question the most interesting team here, followed by Clemson. The Tigers are hurt here by playing The Citadel (stop playing FCS teams, Dabo), and the other teams they've beaten are really bad, just like ND.

So, what do you think?

No Season Left Behind 2010

 I don't believe in revisionist history. What happened happened, and we are supposed to learn from that. What I'm learning as we travel on this journey is that biases are pervasive and harmful. Now, I knew the harmful part. It's obvious, really. But the extent of biases is amazing to me still. 

So, here's the argument:

Random fan week 7: My team is awesome. They should be ranked #1.
Me: My calculations say your team is #1
Fan: Great! You know your stuff!

Random fan week 8: My team is still awesome, they should be ranked #1
Me: Your team played Eastern BFE Tech while #3 stomped #2. My calculations (which are exactly the same as they are every week) say your team is #3.
Fan: You're an idiot.

Maybe so, but at least I am consistent and transparent.

Anyway, what happened in the world in 2010?

Celebrities who died:

• King Koopa
• Lt. Frank Drebin
• The Catcher in the Rye
• Lost Boys' Sam
• Arnold "Whatchutalkinbout" Jackson
• The Heater from Van Meter
• The man responsible for The Empire Strikes Back
• "The Boss" of NY, NY

and one of the greatest voices in all of metal and rock

• RJD

What else happened in 2010:

• A 7.0 earthquake in Haiti
• The iPad in unveiled
• Snowmageddon
• Deepwater Horizon
• Uber goes live and Instagram debuts

How much things cost:

• Average Cost of New House $262,260
• Cost of a gallon of Gas $2.73
• US Postage Stamp 44 cents
• Dozen eggs $1.37
• Loaf of bread $2.49
• Price Of Gold Per Ounce (August 2010) $1,237

And, of course, the top movies of the year:

10. How to Train Your Dragon - not gonna lie, I enjoyed it a lot
9. Despicable Me - another animated film I liked a lot, and not just for the Minions
8. Tangled - I'm sensing a theme here...
7. Iron Man 2 - ok, maybe not; while I'm a Marvel fan, this one was pretty weak
6. Twilight: Eclipse - no accounting for taste
5. Shrek Forever After - the franchise was tired even before this
4. Inception - Chris Nolan can tell a story, and Hans Zimmer!
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 - accio $1 BILLION DOLLARS!
2. Alice in Wonderland - never in a million years would I have thought
1. Toy Story 3 - Woody and Buzz at it again

Ready for some football?

This was the year of Cam Newton:

• 2800yds passing with 30TD to 7INT and a 182 passer rating
• 1473yds rushing with 20TD and a 5.6yd average
• 13-0, Heisman winner, and a natty

It was a bad year to be No.1 In back to back to back weekends, Alabama lost to South Carolina, Ohio State was knocked off by Wisconsin, and then Oklahoma took the No. 1 banner into Columbia, Missouri, where the Tigers toppled the Sooners.

Tulsa over ND?!?!

Jacksonville State over Ole Miss

JMU over VaTech!!

Boise breaks my heart again vs Nevada (and yes, I checked to see "what if")

Andrew Luck had a heck of a year:

UW goes for it vs Cal

And this happened: 

OK, let's get retro!

Here's a quick reminder of the rules:

• I stop all data at the conference championships. No bowl games are included, as the idea is to provide us with a top 25 that we would have selected playoff teams from.
• All calculations are exactly the same as the current Ray's Rankings calculations.
• I will introduce the top 25 in reverse order
• I will compare RR/BCS/AP rankings
• I will provide 3 different playoff scenarios 
• 4 team seeded
• 8 team with conference champions, top G5, and 2 at large, seeded
• 16 team seeded
• We can all have a good laugh at how different things would have been. Or we can all stare slack-jawed in amazement at how closely Ray's Rankings matches human polls.

When they ask, tell them that Pac12 generally does not play FCS schools and very vew G5 schools. That conference is the definition of cannibalism. Many claim the SEC does this, but that's not the case. 

Utah was still MWC.

South Carolina had an odd year: first they knock off No.1 Bama then immediately loses to Kentucky, being held to 0 second half points.

Yes, I checked. Boise moves up 2 whole places if they beat Nevada. Either way, they make my 16 team playoff!

TCU was also still MWC. This was Nebraska's last Big 12 season. Bama was not their usual selves.

Umm...ok? The Piggies only lost to Bama and Auburn (and to Ohio State in their bowl game). Petrino had them playing some ball!

Mizzou reminds me of Iowa, and not just due to the colors. They are a "tough out" if you'll excuse the baseball reference. They lost to Nebraska and Texas Tech, and then coincidentally lost to Iowa in their bowl game.

Started the season unranked, and ended with losses to Nebraska and Oklahoma.

Wisky at it again. This might have been the last time they beat Ohio State? Stellar season and only playing a weak B1G schedule held them back.

The Hoakies opened the season with a loss to Boise State and Kellen Moore, then couldn't shake that hangover against James friggin' Madison. After that it was an 11 game win streak that got upset when they hit the buzz saw that was Stanford and Andrew Luck in the Orange Bowl.

Oh, I can hear you now, "Oklahoma? Overrated then just like now!" They lost to a good Mizzou and a confusing Texas Tech. They also had the 13th ranked SoS.

Yeah, I know. "But they lost to Wisconsin!" They had the advantage of whooping everyone else they played (including Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl) and having much tougher B1G schedule.

As I write these they take me back in time (as I hope they do for you). I well recall when Stanford was consistently this good. They had a string of excellent coaches who recruited excellent QBs.

"But but but...Cam Newton!" Yes, I know. Here's the deal: The Tigers were in the top tier for 1st and 2nd level points, but they both scored fewer and allowed more points than No.1

Chip Kelly and the Ducks were on fire all season. They just couldn't get over that last hurdle. 

No playoff committee, so let's see how I do against the AP and BCS:

Ray vs the AP

It's the MWC and WAC getting the love this year! And look at how little the voters thought of the ACC and Big 12.

Mean	1.720
Variance	48.460
SD	6.961
SEC	5.33
Big Ten	3.33
Pac-10	-1.50
Big 12	-4.80
ACC	-5.50
WAC	6.33
Mountain West	5.50

Ray vs the BCS

Just look at the WAC! And more hate on the ACC

Mean	3.520
Variance	103.927
SD	10.194
SEC	3.50
Big Ten	2.00
Pac-10	-1.00
Big 12	-2.80
ACC	-6.50
WAC	16.67
Mountain West	5.50

If we thought 2011 was bad, 2010 is an order of magnitude worse!  The BCS was a joke. 

If this season happened today, here's your 4 team playoff:

It's ok, but there exists the possibility that Luck outplays Newton and we get Oregon-Stanford in the championship game. I feel like everyone except SEC homers hated UGA-Bama, and LSU-Bama in the BCS was a driving force for the playoff. Still, numbers don't lie. How about my Elite 8? All Power 5 conference champs (though the conferences are a bit different than they are today), the top Group of 5 team (go Broncos!), and the next 2 top ranked at-large teams.

Looks like some fun games! But why limit the fun to only 8 teams? 

So I had to move LSU/MSU and BSU/Mizzou to avoid same-conference 1st round games. And these are all games I'd want to watch, though I expect there'd be some blowouts. I expect there'd be some upsets as well, and that's kind of the point - give the "underdog" a shot, right!

What do you think?