Wow! Pretty Good Weekend of Football!

I just want to get this out of the way now: as an OSU alum, I am still recovering from the abuse my boys suffered at the hands of the SEC officiating crew. I won't argue the targeting call other than to say that the NCAA really needs to change the rule. But there is no doubt in anyone's mind (except for the minds of Clemson fans and UM fans and the pea brains that pass for the minds of SEC officials) that it was a catch and a fumble. And the punter thing should have been the 5 yard penalty, not 15. There, I got it off my chest. I will address the true causes of the OSU loss below. Moving on...


OU v LSU

OU's "improved" defense was, as I said before, only improved compared to last season's historically abysmal team. It was only through the grace of Coach Eaux that Burreaux didn't have 10 passing TD's and the score wasn't 80 bajillion to zero.

Jeaux Burreaux will be the #1 pick in the NFL draft unless the Bungles bungle that as well.

OU was missing some key players, no question, but would they have mattered? It's possible that Perkins could have helped a D-line that rarely gave Burrow concern, but my opinion is that he would not have slowed the machine that is the LSU offense.

Honestly, I don't know if anyone can slow Burrow and the Tigers. I used to think OSU could, and of all the teams they had the tools to do so. Moot point now.

I actually took a nap in the second half. That is not hyperbole. Needed the rest to deal with the 4 friggin hour ridiculousness that has become the norm for televised CFB games.

The Sooners were simply over matched in all areas of the game. Jalen Hurts cannot do it all by himself, and by keying on him LSU's defense looked very good against a very good offense. There's not much to analyze here, really. LSU was firing on all cylinders, and OU looked like a Group of 5 team. Sorry Sooner fans. Maybe next season.

Here's an interesting tidbit: In my final pre-playoff rankings, I had Oklahoma #4 based on the formula used. That formula includes the SRS scores that I pulled from Sports Reference which are modified to account for "non-major" teams. My system does not reward FBS schools for playing FCS teams, and my SRS numbers are different. I didn't figure out how to calculate SRS until recently, so I could not include my numbers in the rankings. But now that I know how, I re-ran the numbers using my SRS scores and Oregon is #4. I'm not saying the outcome would have been different, but who knows? Maybe Herbert has something for LSU's D?


OSU v Clemson

OK, I will do my absolute best to keep the homer glasses off here, but it will be hard for me. Please be gentle.

First - holy smokes, what a game! Glad I got my nap in because this was worth staying up for.

Now, I have watched every OSU game this season, but I've only seen Clemson twice. Shame on me, I know, but I decided to start this ranking thing very late in the season and had no need to watch them.

My takeaway from OSU: that was the team we've seen all season, but we really only got to see them for about a quarter and a half (and for the Buckeyes, it was at the wrong end of the game). Yes, there was the targeting call that flipped the game around, but while I disagree with the rule and its current application, it was called correctly based on NCAA rules. Shame on Wade for lowering his head. The fumble call was simply wrong. The running into the kicker call should have been the 5 yard penalty, not the 15 yard (watch it again). But none of that should have mattered. If you put your team into a situation where a few calls cost you the game, it wasn't the calls that cost you the game.

Let's talk about 3 FG's in the red zone from a team that was a monster in the red zone all season. That's 12 points (or at least 9) left on the field because Day wasn't brave enough to go for it. This was a major knock against OSU last season that everyone thought they had solved.

How about the conservative play calling that dominated OSU's O after going up by 16? I get that Dobbins was hurt, but we've seen Teague run wild this season and yet the O-line stopped getting pushes and poof! the run game was gone.

Quite possibly the most egregious call of the game, though, was during the next to last drive. 3rd and 5 on the Clemson 40, out routes are killing Clemson, the field is ridiculously slippery (though I don't recall seeing quite as many Tigers on their butts as I saw Buckeyes?), and Day calls a bubble screen?

No, it wasn't the officials that killed OSU. It was bad and conservative play calling.

My takeaway from Clemson: for a team with a ridiculously bad SoS, Clemson is the real deal. They did what championship teams are supposed to do. They got punched in the nose and hung in there. They took the opportunities given to them and made the most of them. And most importantly, when they needed Lawrence the most he took them 94 yards in 1:18 and scored the game winning TD.

OSU essentially dominated the game, hanging 516 yards on a Clemson D only giving up half of that. OSU's D held the Tigers to more than 100 yards under their season average. None of that mattered in the least, as Clemson just kept getting back up and limiting the damage and staying in the game until they could take the lead.

The Clemson defense was really quite good, all things considered. I figured Dobbins would have about 300 yards rushing, but the Tiger LBs really stepped up their game, and Venables called a masterful final half.

The mobility of Lawrence was very much a surprise to the Buckeyes, and man did Dabo make the most of it. That last TD with the fake run and pass to a mostly ineffective Etienne was just brilliant. Experience in the biggest of games came through when it mattered.

In the end, Clemson looked OK, but eye tests don't matter, right? They beat the best team in the country, period. The question is, can they do it twice?

By the numbers, LSU should win. I am predicting they will win. The story is too good: "2nd tier" SEC team with the transfer QB and Cajun coach everyone loves playing for it all in Nawlins? Yeah, I can't see how Clemson competes with that, outside of the talent of Burrow and Company. But while I called the Clemson/OSU matchup a coin toss, in my heart I expected a full game of the 1st quarter. Dabo is super smart, Lawrence is pretty darn good, and this might be the best D LSU sees all year (yes, even better than Georgia's - more imagination from Venables).

Other games

I did not watch much of the Notre Dame game. That one felt like a dis of the Irish, and the score didn't do much to change how I see it. I mean, Iowa State had 45 yards rushing. Total. That was a waste of a potentially good bowl game. ND vs App State would have been better.

Penn State and Memphis was entertaining. I felt like PSU would simply squash the Tigers, but that didn't happen. Memphis only had 63 yards rushing, but had 479 yards passing against what was supposed to be a pretty stout Nittany Lion defense. Lots of fun watching this one, though I have to wonder if PSU felt slighted by the selection of their opponent. Franklin did a great job of keeping his guys' minds right.

Who You Got?

I know there will be lots of chatter about the who/what/where/when/why/how the playoff teams should fair on Saturday, and I wanted to chime in.

Let's start with the 1v4 matchup and look at offense v defense going all directions. My intuition says that Oklahoma has yet to see an offense as efficient as LSU's, and that LSU is in the same situation. Let's see what the numbers looks like:

OU offense vs LSU defense

LSU's defense will be the #2 ranked total defense and #2 ranked scoring defense that OU faces this year.

Opponent's D	Pts	Total Yds/gm	Avg/play
Baylor	19.3	358.9	4.9
LSU	21.2	342.0	5.1
Kansas State	21.5	364.2	6.1
Iowa State	25.3	362.2	5.2
Texas Christian	26.4	338.4	5.3
Oklahoma State	27.0	418.1	5.8
West Virginia	28.8	400.0	5.5
Texas	28.9	446.3	6.2
Texas Tech	30.3	480.8	6.6
Houston	34.0	467.5	6.8
UCLA	34.8	456.3	6.7
Kansas	36.1	475.2	6.2

We know that Lincoln Riley has a great offensive mind, so I expect to see some fireworks when OU has the ball. We've seen them hang a lot of points on pretty much everyone they've played, and LSU's defense has been slashed by some mediocre teams. This may turn into a track meet. Yes, all the talk was how well LSU's defense has played at the end of the season, but how good were the offenses they played?

LSU defense vs OU offense

Opponent's O	Pts	Pass Yds/gm	Rush Yds/gm	Total Offense
Alabama	48.3	343.5	170.0	513.5
Oklahoma	43.2	303.0	251.4	554.4
Texas	35.0	296.2	172.7	468.8
Auburn	34.0	210.1	211.3	421.4
Florida	33.0	300.4	120.5	420.9
Georgia	31.2	220.9	190.2	411.1
Texas A&M	30.0	247.1	152.1	399.2
Utah State	29.2	279.1	155.1	434.2
Georgia Southern	28.2	74.5	252.6	327.1
Mississippi State	27.6	176.0	226.9	402.9
Ole Miss	26.6	194.0	251.3	445.3
Arkansas	21.4	192.9	147.3	340.2
Vanderbilt	16.5	172.0	126.8	298.8

By the numbers, OU is the #2 offense LSU will face this year, and the Sooners have Jalen Hurts. But after Alabama, the power of the offenses LSU has faced drops off pretty sharply. OU is probably the stiffest test LSU will face, considering that Tua was not 100% against them. 

LSU offense vs OU defense

Opponent's D	Pts	Total Yds/gm	Avg/play
Georgia	12.5	274.5	4.3
Florida	14.4	301.6	4.9
Auburn	18.6	323.9	4.7
Alabama	18.8	318.8	4.8
Texas A&M	22.7	341.0	5.3
Oklahoma	24.5	331.3	5.3
Ole Miss	26.5	417.3	5.9
Mississippi State	28.1	390.1	6.2
Georgia Southern	28.2	379.5	5.7
Texas	28.9	446.3	6.2
Utah State	30.7	441.0	5.7
Vanderbilt	31.8	437.0	6.6
Arkansas	36.8	451.2	6.6

LSU's O has seen some stout defenses. And while UGA gave them some fits, Auburn was the only team to really hold them back at all. Expect OU to try to mimic that look, but I don't know that the Sooners have the ability.

OU defense vs LSU offense

Opponent's O	Pts	Pass Yds/gm	Rush Yds/gm	Total Offense
LSU	47.8	386.8	167.7	554.5
Baylor	35.2	256.7	174.5	431.2
Texas	35.0	296.2	172.7	468.8
Iowa State	34.1	318.3	140.7	459.0
Oklahoma State	33.4	227.7	236.3	463.9
Kansas State	30.7	185.7	190.5	376.2
Houston	30.7	203.3	189.3	392.6
Texas Tech	30.5	324.7	149.6	474.3
Texas Christian	30.3	203.7	204.0	407.7
UCLA	26.7	255.5	150.2	405.7
Kansas	23.5	231.5	146.3	377.8
West Virginia	20.6	248.7	73.4	322.1

Again, there was a lot of chatter about how much better the OU defense was this season. Compared to last season, sure, it's a lot better. Would have been difficult to be worse, so not sure the improvement comparison was valid? Anyway, the LSU offense is leaps and bounds ahead of any competition OU has seen.

Let's look at 2 vs 3 now. Again, intuition says that OSU has been and continues to be the best, most complete team all season. The numbers back that up. But to me, Clemson is a total wild card. They have a ton of experience, and many of their players have been on the big stage already. Plus, they're playing very well. My heart says Buckeyes, my brain say it's a pick 'em.

OSU offense vs Clemson defense

Opponent's D	Pts	Total Yds/gm	Avg/play
Clemson	10.6	244.7	4.0
Penn State	14.1	330.5	4.7
Wisconsin	16.1	295.2	4.9
Michigan	19.5	293.9	4.5
Cincinnati	21.7	376.6	5.2
Florida Atlantic	22.7	375.1	5.4
Michigan State	22.7	320.1	5.0
Northwestern	23.6	336.2	5.1
Indiana	24.5	350.7	5.4
Nebraska	27.8	389.4	5.7
Miami (OH)	28.2	380.6	5.2
Maryland	34.7	449.7	6.0
Rutgers	36.7	433.5	6.2

Clemson's defense has been the real deal all season. They are beating teams they're supposed to beat by the numbers they're supposed to beat them by. Just checking the numbers, OSU will have to contend with yet another top defense, one that appears to be even better than the UM/PSU/Wisky gauntlet. I am given to understand that the Clemson D-line is a bit undersized, so there may be some wiggle room there?

Clemson defense vs OSU offense

Opponent's O	Pts	Pass Yds/gm	Rush Yds/gm	Total Offense
Ohio State	48.7	258.8	272.8	531.5
Texas A&M	30.0	247.1	152.1	399.2
North Carolina	31.3	285.0	184.0	469.0
South Carolina	22.4	222.3	149.7	371.9
Virginia	32.4	263.5	126.5	390.0
Florida State	29.1	269.4	133.8	403.2
Wake Forest	32.8	297.8	175.7	473.4
NC State	22.1	229.1	152.7	381.8
Syracuse	28.3	240.6	154.0	394.6
Boston College	30.9	183.4	267.4	450.8
Georgia Tech	16.7	133.9	152.6	286.5
Charlotte	29.8	211.5	201.2	412.6
Louisville	32.7	227.7	215.2	442.8

Honestly, Clemson's D had better be for real. OSU will have the best offense Clemson has seen, by far. The Buckeyes score almost 20 points per game more than any other Clemson opponent.

Clemson offense vs OSU defense

Opponent's D	Pts	Total Yds/gm	Avg/play
Ohio State	12.5	247.9	3.9
Texas A&M	22.7	341.0	5.3
North Carolina	24.6	381.9	5.6
South Carolina	26.1	393.3	5.5
Virginia	26.5	359.8	5.6
Florida State	28.5	436.0	5.4
Wake Forest	29.3	409.8	5.7
NC State	30.1	398.9	5.6
Syracuse	30.7	464.1	6.1
Boston College	31.7	480.3	6.5
Georgia Tech	32.4	423.3	5.8
Charlotte	32.4	382.8	6.0
Louisville	33.8	446.3	6.4

Um...OK. Look, we all know that the knock against Clemson this season is SoS. But really, OSU is just on another level entirely from the teams Clemson has faced. I expect that Clemson will have some success. They may have a lot of success, considering how well Wisky moved the ball against them in the 1st half.

OSU defense vs Clemson offense

Opponent's O	Pts	Pass Yds/gm	Rush Yds/gm	Total Offense
Clemson	46.5	294.8	252.9	547.7
Penn State	34.3	228.7	175.0	403.7
Wisconsin	34.6	201.1	241.2	442.3
Michigan	33.0	252.3	150.3	402.7
Cincinnati	29.0	187.4	197.6	385.0
Florida Atlantic	36.4	282.3	166.8	449.1
Michigan State	22.0	238.5	124.1	362.6
Northwestern	16.3	117.0	180.2	297.2
Indiana	32.6	308.7	135.3	444.0
Nebraska	28.0	212.5	205.0	417.5
Miami (OH)	24.7	172.8	134.5	307.4
Maryland	25.3	174.0	169.4	343.4
Rutgers	13.3	139.3	134.3	273.7

The Buckeye defense has been amazing all season. We've watched 3 straight teams try to game plan around Chase Young, and while they've been somewhat successful in keeping him in check, they've also allowed the rest of that D-line to take care of business. That said, OSU has yet to face Trevor Lawrence. Clemson will feed the Bucks massive doses of one of the best QBs in the land.

So, what do I think? 

LSU is probably just too much for OU, but I expect both teams to score a lot. It could be another Bama game for LSU and Baylor for OU, only these teams are better than Bama or Baylor.

And Clemson is probably a coin flip against OSU. The differences are so small that experience could be the thing that tilts the contest, and that advantage goes to Clemson. Unless we've been right about OSU all year.

What do you think? Leave a comment or check out my Facebook page or get with me on Twitter.