Week Zero Thoughts

I don't generally assign too much meaning to first week happenings in college football. It's a long season, lots can happen, and none of us can predict the future. 

That said, I am disappointed in how Scott Frost talked about his team.

"About half of our game plan was kind of out the window when they lined up the way they did"

Yes, he really said that. 

“It looked like the same movie today. We can’t let it be that way. These kids, I feel bad for them because they put in so much hard work. We put a lot on this game, and they’ll bounce back, but I know how much better our team is right now than what we’ve been. Didn’t always look like today.”

And that

“Yeah, we keep doing the same things. I’d have a lot of nickels if I had a nickel for every time we talked about a lot of that stuff. It wasn’t a ton of penalties, it was, I think, five for 67 (yards) is what they said. But they came at the wrong time and the one really hurt us. We’ve got to be more disciplined than that.”

And that.

You know what he didn't say? "I was out-coached today," or "I didn't do a very good job having us ready," or "I have to be better for the guys." 

Mainly he didn't say, "I'm the HMFIC and if there's blame to be had, it belongs to me. The buck stops here."

I'm the boss at my place. If there's an internal issue, I deal with whomever made the mistake. We work it out and get it all fixed. If I have to explain to my boss, "we" have successes, "I" make mistakes. Because at the end of the day, I am ultimately responsible regardless of who does what.

I know that very few if any people are reading this. It's ok, I do this for myself more than anything else. But, if somehow Coach Frost sees this: more I, less we.

 Anyway...

UCLA looked pretty good! I mean, Hawai'i isn't exactly Bama, but they aren't The Citadel either. The University Behind Levitz scored 44 points on under 400 yards total offense. Short fields wins games. Ask Urban Meyer, the master of flipping the field.

I'm calling it now: UCLA over LSU by 7+. I think Chip Kelly has got the Bruins moving in the right direction.

See you all soon!

Ray's Rankings Preseason Top 25

 Hi again, folks!

I thought about this for a little while more which only strengthened my opinion that my system does not allow me to realistically predict anything. This is fine, as it is how it's designed. Of course, this kind of ruins the fun of making a list now and then seeing how well we do at the end of the season. 

I did say in my last post that I'd have something to play with for a preseason Top 25. Here's what I came up with:

1. Take all of last season's rankings: mine, AP, CFP and add up their totals. For example, Bama was #1 across the board so their current total would be 3.
2. Add in 1/2 of the rank using ESPN's SP+. As I mentioned before, SP+ attempts to account for player and coaching changes as well as carryover talent. Why only half? Because that doubles the power. See #3
3. Add the results from #1 and #2 to #3 and the lowest score is the preseason #1
1. If a team was not ranked in the top 25 in any poll, it was awarded 26 points per poll missed (13 for the SP+).
   

See? Not too complicated, no opinions or votes. Of course, the AP and CFP have their biases, but you know my system is straight math and the SP+ is pretty close to that as well, so it's a wash. And I did give more power to the predictive SP+.

There are some shenanigans going on here, though. 

I'm not sure I'm buying Cincy and NC, but I could be wrong there. Definitely not buying Coastal Carolina or BYU! That said, I like Liberty's chances. Notre Dame is riding the end of the season CFP love I think. Anyway, I'll keep this list in my spreadsheet and see how the season turns out.

What do you guys think?

I'll have the finalized ranking formula in a few days. Last season's sheet got so hammered due to missed games that it can't be used now, and 2019 was missing some pieces. I'm still struggling to find a way to reward a good win and penalize a bad loss. I know that's basically what SRS does, but the SRS only looks at scores, not ranking differentials. I'm working on it!

New Season, New Tricks

 Delta! It's the delta variant! Man, I hope we get a regular season in this year.

So, howdy folks. As I (sorta) settle into my new job, I find that I have time to think about this coming CFB season. I hope you have had time to think about it as well.

I still do not have any reasonable way to create a pre-season ranking system that makes any sort of sense mathematically. Instead, I've decided to go in the opposite direction for pre-season rankings, and I think I have a good idea for early season rankings, too. More on that later.

Now, you all know that I am no fan of ESPN. There is no doubt in my mind that allowing them to have any say at all in the CFB Invitational...er, I mean "playoff" is a massive conflict of interest that started with the BCS and continues to this day. That said, some of them have sort of embraced analytics, and I find that their SP+ system has at least a semblance of objectivity. Most importantly for me, it tries to measure production changes from season to season. I will use the ESPN SP+ rankings and then discuss the teams.

1. Alabama - Can anyone argue that Bama is simply reloading? Bryce Young graduated from MDHS is So Cal and looked amazing in HS with the exception of his last game where SJB wrecked him. And who was the QB on the other side of that game?

2. Clemson - DJ Uiagalelei, that's who. It is highly likely that this guy is going to  make Clemson fans forget Sunshine Lawrence by the end of the season. The St John Bosco faithful will love every minute of the season.

3. Oklahoma - OK, Rattler is probably the Heisman front runner to many folks. Not to me, but we'll get to that. I didn't get to watch as many OU games as I'd have liked last year, so all I have to go on is his numbers as they changed part way through the season. I don't know if Riley simplified the gameplans or what. Either way, expect another monster OU offense with a good (for the Big 12) defense.

4. Ohio St. - Returning starters on both sides of the ball explain this ranking. If there's a deeper WR room in the country, I can't think of it, and with that it almost doesn't matter who wins the starting QB role. Olave and Wilson are so good I could have a >100 QBR. And remember the name Zach Harrison.

5. Georgia - Remember when I said Ratter wasn't my Heisman front runner? This is the year we get to see the real JT Daniels. Another MDHS alum, the UGA - Clemson early season matchup should be a lot of fun, and a loss should not hurt either team's playoff chances. If Kirby wants to win it all, this is his season.

6. Wisconsin - I dunno about this one. Lots of returning talent, but always with that pedestrian QB

7. Iowa St. - Again, returning talent and great coaching, but do they have a superstar or 3?

8. Miami - D'Eriq King. All you need to know about the "U."

9. Texas A&M - The Aggies put together a great 2020 season, and I don't see any reason for that to change. Jimbo will have his guys firing on all cylinders. Is the talent starting to catch up to Bama?

10. Penn St. - Another head scratcher. PSU looked awful last year. Franklin will have his guys ready to play, sure, but it's more of a "show me something" season for me.

11. N. Carolina - Sam Howell for dark horse Heisman.

12. Florida - Good team, Mullen has them moving in the right direction, but no Trask?

13. Washington - I am not sold on Jimmy Lake yet, and none of their QBs stand out to me.

14. USC - Truly underrated since Pete Carroll left. This should be a good season to judge if they should have tried harder to keep Daniels or if Slovis is The Man.

15. Oregon - You know, I can recall a time when Oregon was a mid-pack Pac10 team. Now they seem to be challenging for the Pac10 championship every season. Watch this D-line!

16. Iowa - So the teams that had interesting 2020's are hard to predict. Iowa will be good, as usual, but not sure about top 20.

17. Michigan - 6 callers ahead of us, Jimmy! I don't understand how the Wolverines recruit so well and then fall on their faces. I feel like Harbaugh needs to go.

18. Notre Dame - Hmm. This team needs a conference. Yeah, they're ND and they recruit well, but that's not enough any more.

19. Cincinnati - A few years ago I predicted that Ryan Day would leave for the NFL within 5 years and Luke Fickell would be the next great long term OSU HC. He has worked wonders at UC.

20. Texas - Unlike everyone else, I haven't forgotten how bad Sark was at USC. We'll see if anything changes.

21. Utah - Of all the interesting things Urban Meyer did for CFB, this is the interestingest: he made Utah relevant in D1 football.

22. Arizona St. - Probably the most fun team to watch last season. I hope they're as much fun this season.

23. Auburn - Peterson went to UW and took them to the playoff. Anyone think Harsin can do the same for Auburn?

24. Minnesota - PJ will have the guys ready. This is the danger game for OSU early. 

25. Ole Miss - Yet another So Cal QB putting up big numbers. Has Kiffin found his home?

Here we are, folks. Just a few weeks away from the best time of the year. I'll have my system tight before week one, and I'll be using the SRS rankings from last season modified by the ESPN SP+ numbers for the first few weeks. We'll see how that goes. You guys know the drill: my system requires input before it starts to work.

I'll post again soon with the formula for the first part of the season. Until then, be safe and be well!