Latest Rankings

How Ray’s Rankings are achieved:

My system is based on the Ohio State High School Football playoff calculator (and I'm sure other states use the same or similar methods). You get awarded points for beating teams, and you get points for the points your defeated opponents have (and one more level beyond that). There is also a margin of victory modifier call the Simple Ranking System. Also, I penalize FBS teams for playing FCS schools.

• 1st Level - Teams earn 1pt for each Power 5 victory, 0.5pt for beating a Group of 5 team, and are penalized -1pt for every FCS team destroyed. These are then averaged, with a games played modifier. This score is then ranked. Also the 1st tiebreaker. You lose zero points for a loss, except you lose 2pts for losing to an FCS school.
  
• 2nd Level - 1st level points of the opponents you beat (basically points from your opponents' opponents), average them with a modifier for off/bye weeks or shorter schedules. So if the teams you beat beat more P5 schools, the more points you earn than if they lose or beat only Group of 5 for FCS schools. This is also the 2nd tiebreaker.
• 3rd Level - 2nd level points of the opponents you beat, averaged for games played. 3rd tiebreaker.
• SRS - Simple Ranking System scores. It is basically a measure of the Adjusted Point Differential used in predicting NBA and NFL games, only applied to CFB. Ranked, and the final tiebreaker
• See here for the explanation. 

Add up the scores and the best is No.1

Still a work in progress. (Soon to be) New for 2021 (I hope)!

I've wanted to find a simple way to account for "quality" wins and losses from the start, but it needed to be 1) mathematical in nature, and 2) not screw up my way too complicated spreadsheets. I believe I've found a way, and I will be implementing it this season. I'm starting small: you know that if you're a D1 school and you play a D2 school, you get penalized for taking a bye week and calling it a win. Well, I figured out how to penalize you double if you lose to that D2 school without breaking my sheets. As we go, I'll work out how to penalize and reward teams for losing to lower ranked or beating higher ranked teams.I thought I had it, but adding week 3 games broke it again. It may not be possible with Google sheets.

As I've explained from the start, my system is retrodictive, not predictive. So, here's Ray's Rankings in week 8 of 2021:

Ray's Rankings 2020 Playoff Selection Post

Hiya folks! So, I missed basically every game yesterday. My daughter was wrestling (she went 2-0 with 2 pins) and it was senior day so we didn't get home until late, and by then I was wiped out. I saw some of the SJSU-Boise game, including an SJSU commercial. I used to live San Jose, and my wife graduated from SJSU. It's a commuter school. Basically a glorified community college. With a commercial, like they're a B1G school trying to entice undecided high schoolers. It was weird.

Anyway, today is the big Power 5 Invitational show! We get to watch the committee ignore past performance and just pick the teams that will draw the most ad dollars. 

11:30am EST: I predict Bama, Clemson, OSU, A&M. ND and UF first teams out. Maybe UGA in place of UF.

Whatever.

Here are my top 25, in reverse order, along with my 4, 8, and 16 team playoff brackets:

#24 (tie) BYU - The Cougars had a good season, but they were seriously hampered by playing only G5 and FCS schools. Not their fault; their original schedule was a very tough one. And then losing to Coastal Carolina. 

#24 (tie) USC - The Trojans just plain ran out of luck against an OK Oregon. They have a lot of talent, but maybe Helton isn't the right guy? I don't want to be That Guy and pile on the "get rind of Helton" bandwagon; maybe the problem is Slovis? I don't know. Maybe this is where Malzahn lands?

#23 Auburn - at 6-4, a very pedestrian year, but Auburn has been very good for a long time. Why dump Malzahn now unless they have someone special already lined up?

#22 VaTech - 5-6 and ahead of Auburn? That just how the system works. Some good wins and baffling losses. It happens.

#21 TCU - Gary Patterson does it again. He is on the same level as Fitzy at Northwestern to me: doing more with less every season.

#19 (tie) Texas - Look, I like Tom Herman. I think he's a very good coach. I am excited to see what he does without Ehlinger as a crutch. But maybe he needs to learn to be more of a CEO (thanks, Urban) and less hands on.

#19 (tie) Northwestern - Speaking of Fitzy, Northwestern had a very USC-like season: barely winning, but winning none the less. I'm a big fan of the program. But really, allowing Preacher Man to hang 320+ rushing yards on you? Ouch.

#18 NC State - 8-3 with some solid wins. I feel like they've been overlooked by everyone.

#17 Iowa - Stumbled out of the gate but finished strong. Must have figured something out there after Northwestern.

#16 UL-Lafayette - The Ragin' Cajuns lol! Probably known best for their pretty awesome softball team, at 9-1 they managed to break into the top 25.

#15 Cincinnati - Anyone else think that Auburn called Fickell right after getting hung up on by Urban Meyer? 9-0 and ready for what comes next. I think not blowing out Tulsa probably hurt them with the committee, but they were never getting in anyway.

#14 Indiana - I won't say they had an unexpected season because we've seen indications of improvement for a while.

#13 Oklahoma State - The Cowboys had a couple of opportunities to have a special season. Wheels sort of fell off at the end.

#12 Coastal Carolina - 11-0 with a signature win over BYU. Who knew?

#11 Florida - That 3rd loss hurt. Does Trask come back?

#10 North Carolina - The Heels had an excellent season and played everyone tough.

#9 Texas A&M - 8-1, but hurt by low 2nd level points. Everyone who screams about weak conferences needs to look at all of the conferences.

#8 Oklahoma - Had some bad losses but really clawed their way back up the ranks. Lincoln Riley is really good for the Sooners.

#7 Georgia - I've already speculated how much the UGA faithful wish JT Daniels had started the season. Not going to rehash it here.

#6 Iowa State - Yes, 8-3 at #6. The wins were all pretty good. The loss to UL-Laf probably hurts the worst.

#5 Ohio State - Sorry, Buckeye fans. You have to play more than 6 games when everyone else around you is playing 9 or more.

#4 Miami (FL) - The Canes have gotten so little love this season, and the blowout loss to NC didn't help with that whole eye test thing. Luckily, we don't do eye test here.

#3 Notre Dame - 10 wins over 9 P5 schools including a TL-less Clemson. Yes, they got smoked my Clemson yesterday. I wonder if it happens again?

#2 Clemson - Another 10 win P5 school, and the win over ND really helped their 2nd level points.

#1 Alabama - Simply the best team in the country right now. They have been from day 1.

4 team playoff? 

Meh. Miami could be fun, but 4 teams just ain't enough.

This is much more like it. Straight seeded.

How about my usual Power 5 champs, top Group of 5, and 2 at large?

I don't really feel that Oregon has done the work, but this is what happens if we give conference champs automatic bids.

How about a real playoff? remember, 1st 2 rounds are home games!

How much more fun would this be? We've got 3 "lower tier" teams ready to play, great home field advantages (anyone for football in South Bend or Columbus in the dead of winter?), and much more satisfying matchups.

Anyway, this is how I think we ought to be doing it. 4 teams is a joke, has been from the start. 8 teams is still too exclusive. 16 is good. It works. It gives smaller programs opportunities. It's the right thing to do.

Ray's Rankings Week 15

I guess the "regular season is done. The weekend started out pretty pedestrian and ended with some fun football. Too many cancellations, but that's where we are. Of all the lost games, losing OSU-UM is the worst, in my opinion. Whether or not you care for the B1G, losing a huge rivalry game is bad for the sport.

I have to say this - I have no idea why Kirby Smart waited so long to get JT Daniels on the field. I figure by now every single Bulldog Nation fan, player, and coach are wondering "what if" along with the rest of us. Next season, JT vs Bryce Young will be a fun battle to watch. Would not surprise me to see Daniels win the Heisman.

Weird things have happened this season, and Wisconsin has been bitten. Iowa seems to have righted the ship at the Badgers' expense. Wisky did not look good.

Northwestern ran all over Illinois and have the dubious honor of facing the Buckeyes in Indiana. I like Fitz - they guy does so much with a school that is not "win at all costs" and occasionally has a really good team. Unfortunately, unless OSU is missing all of their scholarship players I can't see the Buckeyes losing.

I'm pretty sure I'm the only one who has been talking about North Carolina this season. Everyone is so hung up on wins and losses and head to head like it matters more than body of work. Miami is a good football team and they got destroyed yesterday. Now, anyone can have an off day. It happens. Ask the Buckeyes. But when you allow a 300 yard rusher and a 230 yard rusher on the same day? North Carolina is the best 3 loss team in the country.

I honestly expected UF to pretty much wreck LSU. The fact that it was close all game is a testament to Coach O getting his team ready to play. And the end of the game. Wow. I laughed til I was in tears when the ref called it: "...throwing the other player's shoe 20 yards down the field." And it turns out that throwing another player's shoe can cost you the game. A great 57 yard field goal for LSU and a just barely missed it 50 yarder for UF was a perfectly chaotic ending. I don't think it will matter if UF beats Bama next week, they're out of the playoff.

So what about the Pac12? Well, USC may be the scariest team in the country. 5-0 may not seem intimidating, but 3 of those wins should have been losses. The Trojans just find ways to win at the last possible moment. St. Brown with another TD catch. You know he went to the same high school at JT Daniels and Bryce Young, right? And Eli Ricks at LSU. Mater Dei HS out of Santa Ana. 

Championship week coming up. I'm looking forward to all of the games, really. Here's a possible scenario: ND beats Clemson again, Bama trashes UF, and Cincinnati smashes Tulsa. Now what does the committee do? Do they put the undefeated Bearcats in ahead of A&M? That would certainly put let the fox into the henhouse lol!

Here's my Top 25 for week 15. Miami is still ranked pretty high, but the Heels really jumped up and Iowa State moves into the top 4!

Ray's Rankings Week 14

 Hi folks!

This week I'm going to do something a little different and spend some time on comparing inputs and how they affect the rankings.

Before we dive in, though, let's talk about some football! Lots of fun games yesterday; I tried to watch as many as I could. I just changed from Hulu Live back to YouTube TV because of Hulu's price increase, and it's easier to keep up on scores on YT.

My few takeaways from the weekend:

• Alabama may be unbeatable. The deeper I dig the fewer weaknesses I see. Yes, they've only been punched in the face once by Ole Miss, but that didn't seem to matter.
• Oklahoma has been playing defense. So weird to see. 
• The wheels have fallen off in Eugene. It may walk like a Duck and quack like a Duck, but it plays football like an albatross.
• UW let themselves get into a deep hole and this time couldn't climb out.
• Clemson looks less dominant than last year even with that 45-10 win.
• Ditto OSU, even as well as they played against MSU. Of course, they were missing 23 players and their head coach so maybe I'm wrong about them?
• And every Indiana win makes OSU look better.
• ND is still playing very solid football. They don't look special, but they keep doing their thing.
• I knew that TCU was going to do that! Sleep on Gary Patterson at your own risk. 

The one really fun game was BYU v Coastal Carolina on that high school field under middle school lights. The Chanticleers looked the biz with that read option played to perfection. Zach Wilson just shut up everyone clamoring for his Heisman campaign. Sorry, Cougars, this isn't 1984.

Top 25

Right now my biggest question is this: how good/bad are Group of 5 teams in general? Last year I treated them as basically half as good. If you beat a G5 school, you got 0.5pt. This season I've been making a lot of changes along those lines, but I don't really know what the right answer is. I mean, there's simply no way to argue that beating Cincinnati should be worth less than beating Syracuse this season, but that's just this season. Same with beating Clemson vs beating FIU; they're just not equal. 

My opinion is that an average P5 or G5 team beating a P5 team is generally more difficult than beating a G5 team. Is it half again as difficult? 25% more difficult? Again, I'm looking for an average here. Boise v OU in 2007 clarified a lot of things for us as far as G5 schools go. Yes, they can play with anyone. Yes, we need to consider that they are better than we usually think.

So let's play with the numbers. This first list is the algorithm from last season: 1pt for P5, 0.5pt for G5, -1pt for FCS.

Note that Clemson is hurt most by playing FCS schools. This is the way I will go back to ranking next season. Teams that play FCS schools are benefitting from a bye week being counted as a win, and I find that unacceptable.

How about if I don't subtract points for FCS schools? I'll just count them as 0pts. It's still a penalty, but not as bad.

And there's Clemson back in the top 4. Cincinnati breaks into the top 25. OK, what if we count G5 schools as 75% as good as P5? G5 at 0.75pt, FCS still at 0pt.

Well, Miami really jumps up. Cincy is up to 16, and please welcome Tulsa, SJSU, and BYU. 

This is all well and good, but what if we treat G5 as equal to P5? This part gets interesting. All P5 and G5 wins are 1pt, FSC still 0 pts.

Well, well, well. Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Tulsa, SJSU, BYU, UL-Laf, UCF, Nevada all crashing the P5 party. I can hear you now: "San Jose State? They'd lose by 100pts to Oklahoma!" Maybe. Maybe they do a Boise State.

Let's try one more. We'll go ahead and count FCS wins as just a 1pt win.

Gotta admit that it was hard to type for a bit there. Tears of laughter filled my eyes; couldn't see the screen! Can you imagine?

There's a lesson here. Let's go back to the 1984 CFB season when a truly undeserving BYU was crowned national champ by voters who couldn't pull their heads out long enough to check schedules. The Cougars finished 13-0, but they played no teams with less than 4 losses. Their bowl win over a 6-6 UM in the Holiday Bowl didn't help. Meanwhile, UW had one loss to USC and beat OU in the Orange Bowl to finish #2. That particular travesty is what happens when you let people vote for these things, and that is what would happen if my system treated all wins equally. 

Not all wins are equal. Neither are all losses. So let's get back to where we ought to be. Wins are 1pt for P5, 0.75pt for G5, 0pt for FCS; losses are 0pt for P5, -0.25 for G5, and -1 for FCS.

The super surprise to me is Cincinnati, but only until I realize that they did play Austin Peay. 

I kind of like this setup for now. Somewhere in the near future I am going to download the last 20 years of games played, sort them by conferences, and measure the P5-G5 matchups to see how it actually plays out. Until then, enjoy the weirdness!