Ray's Rankings Week 8 2020

So the B1G and MWC have finally joined the party! More football! I watched a lot of B1G games on Saturday and was not disappointed. The IU-PSU game was ridiculous. At one point the Nittany Lions were down 17-7 having out gained UI 3-1 in total yards. And that finish! Anyway, my top 25 will not include any B1G or MWC teams until they have at least 3 games in. Otherwise it just breaks my spreadsheet. So you B1G and MWC lovers will have to wait a bit.

Still weirdness going on in the rankings. Gotta be honest, not really sure how AF got here.

Yes, Oklahoma is still in the top 25. Remember, I'm still working on my methodology for rewards and punishments for rank differences. Why is ND this low? All of the teams they've played are really bad.

The gators are here because they've only played 3.

This whole season is weird, and my rankings are strange because of it. A&M is hanging tight, but I still don't know about ol' Jimbo.

The Heels are without question the most interesting team here, followed by Clemson. The Tigers are hurt here by playing The Citadel (stop playing FCS teams, Dabo), and the other teams they've beaten are really bad, just like ND.

So, what do you think?

No Season Left Behind 2010

 I don't believe in revisionist history. What happened happened, and we are supposed to learn from that. What I'm learning as we travel on this journey is that biases are pervasive and harmful. Now, I knew the harmful part. It's obvious, really. But the extent of biases is amazing to me still. 

So, here's the argument:

Random fan week 7: My team is awesome. They should be ranked #1.
Me: My calculations say your team is #1
Fan: Great! You know your stuff!

Random fan week 8: My team is still awesome, they should be ranked #1
Me: Your team played Eastern BFE Tech while #3 stomped #2. My calculations (which are exactly the same as they are every week) say your team is #3.
Fan: You're an idiot.

Maybe so, but at least I am consistent and transparent.

Anyway, what happened in the world in 2010?

Celebrities who died:

• King Koopa
• Lt. Frank Drebin
• The Catcher in the Rye
• Lost Boys' Sam
• Arnold "Whatchutalkinbout" Jackson
• The Heater from Van Meter
• The man responsible for The Empire Strikes Back
• "The Boss" of NY, NY

and one of the greatest voices in all of metal and rock

• RJD

What else happened in 2010:

• A 7.0 earthquake in Haiti
• The iPad in unveiled
• Snowmageddon
• Deepwater Horizon
• Uber goes live and Instagram debuts

How much things cost:

• Average Cost of New House $262,260
• Cost of a gallon of Gas $2.73
• US Postage Stamp 44 cents
• Dozen eggs $1.37
• Loaf of bread $2.49
• Price Of Gold Per Ounce (August 2010) $1,237

And, of course, the top movies of the year:

10. How to Train Your Dragon - not gonna lie, I enjoyed it a lot
9. Despicable Me - another animated film I liked a lot, and not just for the Minions
8. Tangled - I'm sensing a theme here...
7. Iron Man 2 - ok, maybe not; while I'm a Marvel fan, this one was pretty weak
6. Twilight: Eclipse - no accounting for taste
5. Shrek Forever After - the franchise was tired even before this
4. Inception - Chris Nolan can tell a story, and Hans Zimmer!
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 - accio $1 BILLION DOLLARS!
2. Alice in Wonderland - never in a million years would I have thought
1. Toy Story 3 - Woody and Buzz at it again

Ready for some football?

This was the year of Cam Newton:

• 2800yds passing with 30TD to 7INT and a 182 passer rating
• 1473yds rushing with 20TD and a 5.6yd average
• 13-0, Heisman winner, and a natty

It was a bad year to be No.1 In back to back to back weekends, Alabama lost to South Carolina, Ohio State was knocked off by Wisconsin, and then Oklahoma took the No. 1 banner into Columbia, Missouri, where the Tigers toppled the Sooners.

Tulsa over ND?!?!

Jacksonville State over Ole Miss

JMU over VaTech!!

Boise breaks my heart again vs Nevada (and yes, I checked to see "what if")

Andrew Luck had a heck of a year:

UW goes for it vs Cal

And this happened: 

OK, let's get retro!

Here's a quick reminder of the rules:

• I stop all data at the conference championships. No bowl games are included, as the idea is to provide us with a top 25 that we would have selected playoff teams from.
• All calculations are exactly the same as the current Ray's Rankings calculations.
• I will introduce the top 25 in reverse order
• I will compare RR/BCS/AP rankings
• I will provide 3 different playoff scenarios 
• 4 team seeded
• 8 team with conference champions, top G5, and 2 at large, seeded
• 16 team seeded
• We can all have a good laugh at how different things would have been. Or we can all stare slack-jawed in amazement at how closely Ray's Rankings matches human polls.

When they ask, tell them that Pac12 generally does not play FCS schools and very vew G5 schools. That conference is the definition of cannibalism. Many claim the SEC does this, but that's not the case. 

Utah was still MWC.

South Carolina had an odd year: first they knock off No.1 Bama then immediately loses to Kentucky, being held to 0 second half points.

Yes, I checked. Boise moves up 2 whole places if they beat Nevada. Either way, they make my 16 team playoff!

TCU was also still MWC. This was Nebraska's last Big 12 season. Bama was not their usual selves.

Umm...ok? The Piggies only lost to Bama and Auburn (and to Ohio State in their bowl game). Petrino had them playing some ball!

Mizzou reminds me of Iowa, and not just due to the colors. They are a "tough out" if you'll excuse the baseball reference. They lost to Nebraska and Texas Tech, and then coincidentally lost to Iowa in their bowl game.

Started the season unranked, and ended with losses to Nebraska and Oklahoma.

Wisky at it again. This might have been the last time they beat Ohio State? Stellar season and only playing a weak B1G schedule held them back.

The Hoakies opened the season with a loss to Boise State and Kellen Moore, then couldn't shake that hangover against James friggin' Madison. After that it was an 11 game win streak that got upset when they hit the buzz saw that was Stanford and Andrew Luck in the Orange Bowl.

Oh, I can hear you now, "Oklahoma? Overrated then just like now!" They lost to a good Mizzou and a confusing Texas Tech. They also had the 13th ranked SoS.

Yeah, I know. "But they lost to Wisconsin!" They had the advantage of whooping everyone else they played (including Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl) and having much tougher B1G schedule.

As I write these they take me back in time (as I hope they do for you). I well recall when Stanford was consistently this good. They had a string of excellent coaches who recruited excellent QBs.

"But but but...Cam Newton!" Yes, I know. Here's the deal: The Tigers were in the top tier for 1st and 2nd level points, but they both scored fewer and allowed more points than No.1

Chip Kelly and the Ducks were on fire all season. They just couldn't get over that last hurdle. 

No playoff committee, so let's see how I do against the AP and BCS:

Ray vs the AP

It's the MWC and WAC getting the love this year! And look at how little the voters thought of the ACC and Big 12.

Mean	1.720
Variance	48.460
SD	6.961
SEC	5.33
Big Ten	3.33
Pac-10	-1.50
Big 12	-4.80
ACC	-5.50
WAC	6.33
Mountain West	5.50

Ray vs the BCS

Just look at the WAC! And more hate on the ACC

Mean	3.520
Variance	103.927
SD	10.194
SEC	3.50
Big Ten	2.00
Pac-10	-1.00
Big 12	-2.80
ACC	-6.50
WAC	16.67
Mountain West	5.50

If we thought 2011 was bad, 2010 is an order of magnitude worse!  The BCS was a joke. 

If this season happened today, here's your 4 team playoff:

It's ok, but there exists the possibility that Luck outplays Newton and we get Oregon-Stanford in the championship game. I feel like everyone except SEC homers hated UGA-Bama, and LSU-Bama in the BCS was a driving force for the playoff. Still, numbers don't lie. How about my Elite 8? All Power 5 conference champs (though the conferences are a bit different than they are today), the top Group of 5 team (go Broncos!), and the next 2 top ranked at-large teams.

Looks like some fun games! But why limit the fun to only 8 teams? 

So I had to move LSU/MSU and BSU/Mizzou to avoid same-conference 1st round games. And these are all games I'd want to watch, though I expect there'd be some blowouts. I expect there'd be some upsets as well, and that's kind of the point - give the "underdog" a shot, right!

What do you think?

Ray's Rankings 2020 - Week 7

 Alrighty folks, we're getting deep enough into the season to be able to see how teams are looking for real, yes?

BTW, if you check out the Latest Rankings page you'll see some changes in how scores are calculated. I basically added a loss component. It's not finalized yet, but I had some inspiration on how to add it to the spreadsheet. This will also become the basis for a win modification component for beating a higher ranked team. That's not in place yet, but I'm working on it.

So, I watched a reasonable amount of football this weekend, and I have a few observations to make. Let's do that as we run down Ray's Rankings Top 25:

I watched most of the Memphis-UCF game. That was a lot of fun in the second half. 1522 total yards, nearly 100 points scored, and it came down to a last minute field goal to decide the game. This is why we love CFB!

Gotta say that I haven't seen Mizzou much this season, but I did catch some of the LSU game. We'll see if they can maintain.

The ramblin wreck. Couple of good wins over FSU and UL.

Memphis! Give up a 93 yard WR screen TD to go down 2 scores and still pull it out (with some help from Lady Luck). Fun to watch these guys, and more reasons for expanding the playoffs.

Baylor is benefitting here from the screwed up schedules. Haven't seen much except highlights. 

Ol' Kiffin is riding that one win. I kind of expected more against Arkansas.

BYU 5-0 and at #19. Seems odd until you see that all of those wins are against Group of 5 schools.

AF is throwing me off a bit. Yeah, they beat Navy so I like them for that (Go Army!), but that's the only game they've played so far. It's the 2nd level points. The better Navy does, the batter it looks that AF beat them.

I have no idea if the Razorbacks are for real. I know that the SEC owes them a win after that debacle vs Auburn. I won't say that the SEC was protecting a marquee name there, but...anyway, they followed up with a win over Ole Miss.

The Canes are not in trouble yet, but they were ranked far too high before the Clemson game. Just another example of voters wanting Clemson to matter more (not that they wouldn't, but the resume looks so much better when you beat #7 than when you beat #16).

Iowa State has looked pretty good so far. I like them for the Big 12 champs.

KState I have not seen at all. Lose to Arkansas State then beat Oklahoma? I'm confused.

South Carolina played well against a poorly playing Bo Nix and Auburn. Bo is in his "sophomore slump" I guess.

Tennessee disappointed this weekend. They have recruited well lately, but I think they need to step up at QB. Maybe go out and find a transfer because that's how the game works now, right? Maybe they can get Stetston Bennett after that 3 pick performance vs Bama...

ND. They are beating teams that suck, and they barely survived a not great UL.

OK, UK with 2 wins at #10 is strange. Keep in mind that #9 to #22 are covered by 0.4655 points. 2nd and 3rd level points help here.

NC State has shown to be the better NC team so far. Not sure why everyone was in love with the Tar Heels.

Auburn seems to be unpredictable? Gus and Bo will get it sorted. For now their 2 wins over schools that are doing alright right now carry them.

Gators might be a top 5 team, but they're one game behind right now, and that hurts 1st level points.

OkSt benefits from 2nd level points here. None of the teams they've played have negative points.

TAMU with the UF and Miss wins gets lots of 2nd level points, and that vaults them up the list pretty good. This season smells like opportunity for Jimbo.

VaTech. Haven't seen them play. Their 1st and 3rd level points are really good, though.

Clemson is hurt by playing The Citadel. Look, playing an FCS school is essentially a bye week that you're trying to count as a win. That's cheap.

UGA looked great for a half on Saturday. But I don't think ol' Stetson is their guy. 3 picks and sub 50% completion percentage is not good against a defense that got 600+ hung on it by Lane Kiffin and a 4 star out of LB Poly.

Saban is at it again. The formula is: beat the teams you're supposed to beat. And this season he doesn't get to play The Citadel or Eastern Carolina.

So there you go - week 7 top 25. Hope you like it!